Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/021721_5pm.pdf

lglickman1 wrote:Has the heaviest axis of precipitation shifted south or is the euro an outlier with that?

So the NAM and Euro both have that heaviest zone in pretty much the same location. The GFS is odd as, (I think Heehaw pointed this out) the GFS has the higher totals more north (but less expansive) but the GFS Para has the highest totals way south from DC through DE and far SNJ. I'm kind of tossing the GFS now because everything about it is acting weird. lol. And the Euro and NAM are closer to agreement.

Look at all that warm convective moisture boyz - that what's coming up this way greater than modelled once again!

lets hope it leads to mothazilla for all

Bill: I moved all my work appts to tonight so I can enjoy tomorrow and now I gotta put Heckle and Jeckle to bed. I’ll be back in a few minutes. I’m still quite cautious though. I see 1-3” as just as likely as both 3-5” and 6-8” for down here.

I think it's going to thump well tomorrow. Just not sure exactly how far north the initial WAA best frontogenesis gets. I think I-78 and points south have best shot at really impressive rates tomorrow morning and early afternoon. Could be NJ I-195 to NJ I-78 kind of zone which may avoid sleet and get impressive rates. I agree with Mugs this is going to be quite moist where the frontogenesis is best.

22* with a dewpoint of 10* here. Temperatures will be no issue in this part of the state -- at least at the surface. If I can keep the warm nose south or east of here I should get all snow, and whatever falls should stick in its entirety.

Looking at radar almost looks like some snow might get here earlier than projected, although with the cold dry air some of that is likely virga.

billg315 wrote:22* with a dewpoint of 10* here. Temperatures will be no issue in this part of the state -- at least at the surface. If I can keep the warm nose south or east of here I should get all snow, and whatever falls should stick in its entirety.

Hope you are right...learned to never underestimate the warm nose in this neck of the woods

Its 27 here. Just cold enough for all snow.

It is actually lightly snowing right now. 19 degrees. It looks cold enough here for tonight until snow’s end Fri. I thought this was supposed to start Thurs noonish?

Again as with SB storm and 2017-18 and 2014-15 storms. The convection in the South I'd a tell tale sign for how much latent heat, wv/moisture tnis will have and the frontogenesis that will be occurring once it gets up here. That just doesn't dissipate from experience. The moisture in front will saturate the column and then boom its like tstorms in the summer as we well know here. There will be positive surprises with this for some if not many

Hmm maybe I’m in the minority but the radar doesn’t look fantastic to me. It looked a lot better with the SB storm. 00z NAM kept almost all of SNJ in a mix and really tried to blow up the coastal element of the storm. Might get some nice banding setting up WNW of NYC tomorrow night into Friday

Frank the SB storm had much more convection than modeled and this one does too. Just using this an apology for compassion purposes
Snowing in Altoona and Armando S put up a great post on another board that portends to what I have been posting about the convection and 700 and 850 frontGenesis. Not wish casting but nowcasting. Time will tell but also GFS has a better Costal LP placement as well to bring some band into the NNJ LHV and NYC metro Friday afternoon and early evening

amugs wrote:Frank the SB storm had much more convection than modeled and this one does too. Just using this an apology for compassion purposes
Snowing in Altoona and Armando S put up a great post on another board that portends to what I have been posting about the convection and 700 and 850 frontGenesis. Not wish casting but nowcasting. Time will tell but also GFS has a better Costal LP placement as well to bring some band into the NNJ LHV and NYC metro Friday afternoon and early evening

I like weather forecasting apologies for compassion purposes too...can think of a lot of us on this board that would benefit from that

Coastal on GFS sbows for 30 hours with this

Coastal looking like real deal fro Friday moderate snow from 4 am until about 4pm IF ITS RIGHT!

amugs wrote:Coastal looking like real deal fro Friday moderate snow from 4 am until about 4pm IF ITS RIGHT!

So is this a newer development?

Just upped my predicted totals from 4-6 to possibly upwards of 11.

A decent band of snow covering Orange County right now. On radar  but not in reality, I haven't seen a flake.

amugs wrote:Coastal looking like real deal fro Friday moderate snow from 4 am until about 4pm IF ITS RIGHT!

wait huh? This didnt look at all like this in any runs prior did it?

amugs wrote:Coastal looking like real deal fro Friday moderate snow from 4 am until about 4pm IF ITS RIGHT!

yet highest is 8-9 inches and NYC south sees 4-5. Thats a super light snow high or low end for 30 hrs.  I get that the main part comes at one point but its still not much and SNJ sees 1.2 qpf but only a few inches other than that one blob?!

GFS is wonky, doesnt show any kind of band like other models.  And even though it shows precip for a long period it doesnt add up to  a whole lot relatively speaking for many, and CP check it out if it's right you jackpot on this one buddy.  I did not see that coming thought this was go be south of NYC win.

00z summary:

GFS- mostly 5-7", a few 4-5" spots and a few 6-10" jackpots (LHV).

CMC- mostly 4-6", So. NJ jackpot 6-9" thru all of coastal Ocean Co. Some 2" spots.

Icon- We all get 2-3"

Nam 12K- So NJ Spectacular- borderline GZ south of 95, 3-4" above it.        

Nam 3K- So NJ Slight Edge- Same as above, but mostly 6" with some 8" south of 95, a layer of 4-6" right along 95 and LI and then 3-5 NEPA on thru NNJ and into LHV. Some spots with 2".

HRRR- 4-6" North of SENJsnowman and 1-3" from SENJ on down. 6-9" jackpot zones NNJ and LHV.

RGEM- generally 4-6", 6-8" jackpot zones in nw NJ and in eastern Suffolk County.

So, my analysis from that summary is that we are all in the game for anywhere from 2-8".

I just compared all the models too, they are still all over the place jeeze. NAM is all south Jersey special with 2 inches here (in 24 hrs? cool, ill be able to show you guys each flake as they fall and i put them in my freezer. lol, to HRRR who is more uniform from central jersey to LHV. And anywhere in between, yeah 2-8 sounds right.