Thursday's Mothrazilla, Part II: First Forecast

Just finished shoveling by me we ended up with 4 inches of snow .now it’s freezing drizzle

Got a coating of ice just got in from sledding with my daughter woohh it was like clark griswold speed jeeze.  Great sledding snow, icy.  Likeing that look for the next round, im hoping can squeeze out 3 from it to make it a even 6. Fran638, you guys literally got a inch more the cutoff was amazingly small, central park measured 4 too.  Seems to cut off was just south of me, no biggie but amazing how razor thin this can be.

HRRR is showing a mix Freezing Precp at 1:00 am then all snow at 9:00 am, going to be a fun night, hopefully it's sleet and NOT freezing rain like we just had here in KP

Micro flakes for about an hour now. Nice little dusting

This explains why the radar was showing sick bands but nothing was falling paralleling those returns and threw us off - even the models - so we would have had a 6-10" snowfall IF these did not occur in NNJ IMO.

[b

There is also drier air higher up that has prevented snow from growing. Saturation aloft increases again by Friday morning and the overall temperature profile will cool to support more light snow into Friday. (2/2)

— NWS New York NY (@NWSNewYorkNY) February 18, 2021

[/b]

amugs wrote:This explains why the radar was showing sick bands but nothing was falling paralleling those returns and threw us off - even the models - so we would have had a 6-10" snowfall IF these did not occur in NNJ IMO.

[b

There is also drier air higher up that has prevented snow from growing. Saturation aloft increases again by Friday morning and the overall temperature profile will cool to support more light snow into Friday. (2/2)

— NWS New York NY (@NWSNewYorkNY) February 18, 2021

[/b]

Yep. Based on soundings I figured about 820 mb. Definitely though the snow growth was terrible as I was getting pixie dust when should've been 3"/hr rates. Mother Nature letting us know where we stand.

heehaw453 wrote:

Yep.  Based on soundings I figured about 820 mb.    Definitely though the snow growth was terrible as I was getting pixie dust when should've been 3"/hr rates. Mother Nature letting us know where we stand.

Bingo. As I explained to my 10 year old this morning, that is what ‘real humility’ is all about. A real gut level understanding of just how important we clearly are not compared to Big Momma and whatever she decides to do.

SkiSeadooJoe wrote:Ha ha SNJSnowman check it out, same ruler, LOL

Ha ha. I’m guessing Toms River Target for both. I unscrewed the pike on mine cuz I could never get it to stick in the ground. Ground is always too frozen!!

I am pushing two inches here. It is not snowing right now. The temp is 22 degrees. I have realistic expectations for overnight and into tomorrow. I am begging for 2-3 inches more. I don't think I 'll get it. As Doc said, this storm has busted low. Still, it was a lovely day today watching the very light snow fall and the birds treating the suet and bird feeder as an airport runway. We have the next three weeks, and after that three to four weeks where snow is a gift. I am happy enough with the winter so far.

0z Nam snows till 5pm tmw

Additional Nam snow through 7pm tmw

aiannone wrote:Additional Nam snow through 7pm tmw

a lot of that is not additional you have to subtract what is shown at the first time stamp from the final if i am correct. That would be 1-2 for most maybe a bit more south shore LI.

NWS storm totals

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202102190114-KOKX-NOUS41-PNSOKX

jmanley32 wrote:

aiannone wrote:Additional Nam snow through 7pm tmw

a lot of that is not additional you have to subtract what is shown at the first time stamp from the final if i am correct.  That would be 1-2 for most maybe a bit more south shore LI.

This is the first time stamp and the last Jon.

GreyBeard wrote:NWS storm totals

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202102190114-KOKX-NOUS41-PNSOKX

ha, they used my measurement submission!

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

aiannone wrote:Additional Nam snow through 7pm tmw

a lot of that is not additional you have to subtract what is shown at the first time stamp from the final if i am correct.  That would be 1-2 for most maybe a bit more south shore LI.

This is the first time stamp and the last Jon.

tgats the 12km Alex posted the regular nam. I like the one you posted better haha. If you look the regular nam on pivotal that Alex showing HR 0 or I think it starts on 3 shows much more than that. For some reason pivotal doesn't have 12km nam. Anyways who really knows.

Ugh, this freezing drizzle is really icing everything up. Car windows and surfaces are frozen solid

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

aiannone wrote:Additional Nam snow through 7pm tmw

a lot of that is not additional you have to subtract what is shown at the first time stamp from the final if i am correct.  That would be 1-2 for most maybe a bit more south shore LI.

This is the first time stamp and the last Jon.

tgats the 12km Alex posted the regular nam. I like the one you posted better haha. If you look the regular nam on pivotal that Alex showing HR 0 or I think it starts on 3 shows much more than that. For some reason pivotal doesn't have 12km nam. Anyways who really knows.

Jon I’m not exactly sure what your taking about but Alex posted tonights 00z Nam through later Friday. I then posted the same map plus the first map to show you that at least according to the 00z 12k NAM this is going to fall between initiation and late tomorrow. Alex and I posted the same map. Different sites.

aiannone wrote:Ugh, this freezing drizzle is really icing everything up. Car windows and surfaces are frozen solid

Same here. It's not really droplets it's like freezing fog and it's not showing up on radar.

essexcountypete wrote:

aiannone wrote:Ugh, this freezing drizzle is really icing everything up. Car windows and surfaces are frozen solid

Same here. It's not really droplets it's like freezing fog and it's not showing up on radar.

It’s bad here on the Island. Ice is building up with the freezing drizzle

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

aiannone wrote:Additional Nam snow through 7pm tmw

a lot of that is not additional you have to subtract what is shown at the first time stamp from the final if i am correct.  That would be 1-2 for most maybe a bit more south shore LI.

This is the first time stamp and the last Jon.

tgats the 12km Alex posted the regular nam. I like the one you posted better haha. If you look the regular nam on pivotal that Alex showing HR 0 or I think it starts on 3 shows much more than that. For some reason pivotal doesn't have 12km nam. Anyways who really knows.

Jon I’m not exactly sure what your taking about but Alex posted tonights 00z Nam through later Friday. I then posted the same map plus the first map to show you that at least according to the 00z 12k NAM this is going to fall between initiation and late tomorrow.  Alex and I posted the same map. Different sites.

Oh jesus the eggs on my face, when I looked at the NAM on pivotalwx it defaulted me to the 18z instead of the 00z even though 00z was running how mean a site, sorry guys.

Well so according to the NAM I might be looking at another 3 inches, that would be a nice addition to round out to a nice 6 total to add to my year.

Does anyone know what’s going to happen on Long Island today?

Ice accrual occurred last night. < .1", but still everything is extremely slippery especially south of I-78. Be careful stepping outdoors.

24 degrees and light snow.Looks like another inch fell here last night,bringing total up to around 2.5 inches.Hoping to hit 4 when it's all over.

Scullybutcher wrote:Does anyone know what’s going to happen on Long Island  today?

Bob O. 1-2”