2021 Tropical Season

jmanley32 wrote:BTW rb, if you have a meterology degree and so passionate how come you do not work in meterology? Or do you and I just missed that?

I did for a little while. It’s kind of a long story, but basically I got fired from my first true meteorology job after college (that’s a funny story in itself) within six months of being hired. Then got recruited by somebody else to help try to start a new company, and after getting things off the ground for it, was laid off for what was supposed to be a very short period and turned into indefinitely. I worked odd jobs just to pay rent before I got into a company that still deals with the weather, but I just work with data entry/quality control. The reason I’m still there? The company is WAY too good to leave. So I’m “stuck” of sorts haha

Sanchize06 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:

I think NHC wil lextend hurricane watches to the west to include NYC area soon. Too many models coming into the area, and rb i trust, scott def follow you too, honestly the technical is too much for me so images are helpful.  His crosshairs are in line with ukmet, cmc rgem and others, not good.  Ny best call a SOE at some pt soon if these trends continue to look real. Those winds seem low for a 981mb cane.

Hurricane Watches need to be extended back to NYC, it's already getting late in the game. Has to be done this afternoon

5pm update maybe? Idk, I can’t speak for them, but fully agree with you.

Sanchize06 wrote:12z HMON way west

That’s up there with the ARW lol certainly not impossible, but I do think it’s unlikely to adjust THAT much more. At least I hope it doesn’t. I’d be screwed ahaha

I’d honestly probably extend the hurricane watches as far south as Sandy Hook, tropical storm watches as far south as Atlantic City, maybe even Cape May.

Sanchize06 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:12z HMON way west

That’s up there with the ARW lol certainly not impossible, but I do think it’s unlikely to adjust THAT much more. At least I hope it doesn’t. I’d be screwed ahaha

Agreed lol just goes to show how much room there it on the western side of the envelope compared to the right side right now. 12z runs definitely concerning looking at the angle and sharpness of this left turn. Won't do any favors for storm surge

And that’s the worry I have with these corrections continuing. There’s always a point where the corrections can only go so far, but it appears that that point has not yet been reached yet, although I think we are getting close based on my analysis of of everything. The scary part is that we just don’t know, and can’t know until it’s actually underway.

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:That run looked ok to me except for landfall - should not be slipping northeast like it did. Should have been a west-central Long Island landfall in my opinion.

I really think an extremely important player is the timing of the mean trough.  If it moves in a tad faster then it will erode the NW flank of our ridge NE of the system faster and the slip to the east would be real.  I've noticed on all the major models subtle differences in this idea from run to run.  This timing may be the diff between a Cape landfall or a central LI landfall  

Positioning is key too, though. What if it moves in faster but is stronger and therefore is able to get further south? Now you shift your whole axis of rotation south. The problem is that you’re in a blocked pattern, so what happens? The progression of everything slows down. So my hypothesis has been a slower trough, but also a deeper trough because of other factors. If that’s the case, and has at the very least been where the models are heading, now you shift your axis of rotation further south and west.

Timing and positioning are kind of one in the same.  6 of one half dozen of another.  I still think we cannot look at this as simple as "being captured by the trough" And positioning of "the trough", because this is a cutoff low capturing Henri which acts as the fulcrum to the pivot to start.  It, the ULL, gets captured, by the mean trough coming in from the west.  Its capture is weak at best until our system has made landfall.  So this is a much more complex discussion on that front.  The energy rounding the base of the mean trough is minimally consequential in its direct influence to Henri.  The capture of the ULL and its initial interactions with Henri, before it is weakly captured by the mean trough, is adding minimal amts of energy to Henri.  Its main influence is in its capture, and uses as the pivot to steer him along with the ridge to the NE, and weakly at that as the steering current will be weak when he reaches North of the latitude of NCarolina.  

 

 

I undertsnd

I don’t follow you here, brother. Timing and positioning CAN be one in the same, but in this case I would contend they aren’t, because the trough is moving NW-SE. So if it’s slower/faster, it would just shift along that 1-D axis. However, if it starts from a different position or comes in at a different angle AND a different speed, now you’re changing two dimensions, and the downstream impacts multiply.

I also don’t follow your logic of the ULL getting captured by the mean trough. The mean trough is out west and is nowhere near our features of interest. It’s just the behavior of the ULL (what I am referring to as the trough), it’s associated energy, and Henri’s circulation.

Lastly, I strongly disagree with your thoughts on the effects of the trough’s energy. Whenever you have a phase of vorticity maxima, you add energy to the system. Secondly, when you have a maturing trough (aka tilting negative), you don’t increase the energy of the system but you allow it’s dynamics to be more effectively utilized via consolidation and advection. Add this to the outside presence of a favorable environment for strengthening a tropical cyclone, and this is the reason why the models are projecting the strengthening of Henri, which makes physical sense.

Additionally, by having stronger energy at the base of the ULL/trough, not only do you enhance the the above factors, but you also enhance the ability of the trough to force height falls out ahead of it (which is also to the west of Henri). By forcing increasingly lower heights, you effectively shorten the axis that Henri pivots on, thereby increasing the efficiency of the capture and producing more of an east-west component to the steering flow while reducing the south-north component. This is why we are seeing continued westward trend in the track, and also partially why we see the increasing height tendencies in the Atlantic ridge.

I love the debate, brother!!

Lets debate this point.  My point is this.  Take Sandy for example.  Sandy's capture came visa vi a long wave trough.  Embedded within the long wave trough you get a much more consolidated vort max that rounds the base of the trough and phases with your system like Sandy, and when the trough tilts negative you get your pivot, your strengthening(as it transitions from warm to cold core with the injection of energy from the LW trough), and your hook like track back west as a result of the negative tilt.  

Now I understand that perhaps by definition an ULL is technically a trough, it is NOT a long wave trough and behaves very differently, esp in this situation.  There is no consolidated vort max beacause there is no base to the trough, because its cutoff from the mean flow.  It is a uniform cicular trough with no defined base to it.  There is only incoherent vort max's of varying intensity rotating around its center of circulation independent to the mean jet stream flow. As Henri begins to interact with it it does so very differently than it would if it were to interact directly with the long wave trough like Sandy did.  

While I will conceded it may input some energy into the system, it is not a phase the way one would characterize when a system phases with a LW trough.  The energy input is minimal in this situation relatively speaking.  The ULL's main interactions with Henri will be to influence the steering flow initially.  In this case  aiding him tto turn northward on his track, and then second will come the pivot.  But because there isnt a defined base, and therefore strong consolidated phase, like with a LW trough,  you get more of a pivot from a fujiwara type effects where you get the pivot around the axis point between the center of two low pressure systems.  Maybe im way off with that but I know there stark differences in how an ULL behaves and its dynamics, when compared to a long wave trough. If you follow the 500mb height lines the approaching LW trough does interact with the ULL after it has started its interactions with Henri and begins to tug on it a bit.



One would anticipate if the pivot were truly from phasing as you're suggesting the system should be strengthening as it makes landfall and receives the injection of energy and tilts neg, and not weaken like is forecast.  As I stated yesterday I really think as it heads N of the GS the much colder SST's will cause weakening on approach rather than strengthening, esp the slower it moves.  


The LW trough, that as the system approaches its landfall, erodes the NE ridge and eventually allows the system to escape as it gets caught up in the LW flow.  

SoulSingMG wrote:I wouldn’t be shocked at all if Hurricane Watches are extended west by this evening to include the city at least, if not southwest into Monmouth and perhaps even Ocean counties.

The problem is they are way too conservative to make that big of an adjustment in a single cycle. Then again, I don’t think a hurricane watch would be warranted in Ocean anyway, but still. They’ll probably start with the city, and then if the west trend holds, extend into Monmouth tonight/tomorrow morning.

Scott, I’ll get back to you after the EURO lol

I don’t ever use it, but the JMA went to the HMON/ARW lol