Re: 2021 Tropical Season

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Aug 20, 2021 1:46 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:I wouldn’t be shocked at all if Hurricane Watches are extended west by this evening to include the city at least, if not southwest into Monmouth and perhaps even Ocean counties.

I’m back and forth. Some models don’t bring a lot of impact to let’s say west of the Garden State besides some rain. It’s a very compact system with majority of affects east of GSP. Especially LI!!

Agreed. We’ll see if the NHC buys into any of the western outliers (Ukie/HMON). Though I gotta say, the UKMET has been wildly consistent with a more western path (FWIW)… If Henri ends up looking to make landfall in, say, Central Long Island, I’d wager Hurricane Watches have to be extended to Sandy Hook at least.

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 20, 2021 1:47 pm

I don’t ever use it, but the JMA went to the HMON/ARW lol

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 20, 2021 1:47 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:Henri almost a hurricane now. Winds up to 70mph, pressure down 2mb to 994

when they did a intermediate advisory? i thought next was 5pm or did they start 3 hrs like i had just suggested.

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Aug 20, 2021 1:47 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:I wouldn’t be shocked at all if Hurricane Watches are extended west by this evening to include the city at least, if not southwest into Monmouth and perhaps even Ocean counties.
Whats up soul!! You still in westchester? per rbs thoughts we are in the dead on cross hairs, if you take the splt between a LI hit and the far west into jersey hits and take the average I think he may be spot on. Not gonna be good, they should have pulled the trigger on that already. No one is talking about Henri and that concerns me. It is all over the media and I feel like people mare dismissing a potentially very bad and damaging storm. Even TS winds lets say 70mph gusts would be into 90s, for our area that would cause immense week or longer power outages and massive storm surge.

I live in Manhattan but I’m actually in PROVINCETOWN right now haha. I’m telling people there’s a Hurricane Watch here and they are looking at me like I’m nuts. I return to the city tomorrow afternoon….

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 20, 2021 1:47 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:Henri almost a hurricane now. Winds up to 70mph, pressure down 2mb to 994

And hereeeed weee goooooo……… lol

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 20, 2021 1:48 pm

yes, yes they did lol, figured they would start but cone and wind chance maps do not change except at 5 and 11.

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 20, 2021 1:49 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:I wouldn’t be shocked at all if Hurricane Watches are extended west by this evening to include the city at least, if not southwest into Monmouth and perhaps even Ocean counties.
Whats up soul!! You still in westchester? per rbs thoughts we are in the dead on cross hairs, if you take the splt between a LI hit and the far west into jersey hits and take the average I think he may be spot on. Not gonna be good, they should have pulled the trigger on that already. No one is talking about Henri and that concerns me. It is all over the media and I feel like people mare dismissing a potentially very bad and damaging storm. Even TS winds lets say 70mph gusts would be into 90s, for our area that would cause immense week or longer power outages and massive storm surge.

I live in Manhattan but I’m actually in PROVINCETOWN right now haha. I’m telling people there’s a Hurricane Watch here and they are looking at me like I’m nuts. I return to the city tomorrow afternoon….

see exactly what im talking about no one knows or seems to care. how they do not know due to the media I got no clue.

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 20, 2021 1:50 pm

jmanley32 wrote:btw rb you stated other night where was the 8pm advisory? they only do every 3 hrs when it is within i think 48 hrs or so so soon they will be. come on you know that lol just joking around

I honestly don’t know how they work their advisories, so you could be right. I thought they just did the same ones to be honest, 11 and 5 am/pm aha

by **Sanchize06** Fri Aug 20, 2021 1:50 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:Henri almost a hurricane now. Winds up to 70mph, pressure down 2mb to 994
when they did a intermediate advisory? i thought next was 5pm or did they start 3 hrs like i had just suggested.

Yeah, they either started the 3 hour advisories this morning sometime I think

by **Sanchize06** Fri Aug 20, 2021 1:51 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:Henri almost a hurricane now. Winds up to 70mph, pressure down 2mb to 994

And hereeeed weee goooooo……… lol

Yep lol Hurricane by tonight I'm sure

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 20, 2021 1:54 pm

I can’t get over the EURO right now. 12 hrs out and already noticeable differences from 00z. What have they done to this model?

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 20, 2021 1:56 pm

Pretty sure the Euro coming west, but only through 24 lol

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 20, 2021 1:59 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:Henri almost a hurricane now. Winds up to 70mph, pressure down 2mb to 994

And hereeeed weee goooooo……… lol

Yep lol Hurricane by tonight I'm sure

Once he is a hurricane and watches go up for city If they do, which I think they will watch people go craszy lol

by **Sanchize06** Fri Aug 20, 2021 2:00 pm

Euro west thru hr 36, hard to tell exactly how much west it'll be

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Aug 20, 2021 2:00 pm

Thoughts?

by **Sanchize06** Fri Aug 20, 2021 2:02 pm

Okay, it'll be a lot further west lol. Central/east Long Island this run

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 20, 2021 2:03 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:Euro west thru hr 36, hard to tell exactly how much west it'll be

WAY west of 00z lol

by **Sanchize06** Fri Aug 20, 2021 2:04 pm

12z

2021 Tropical Season - Page 16 Sfcwind_mslp.us_ne

0z

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 20, 2021 2:09 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:12z

0z

WOW, huge shift like crazy huge. One more shift like that and your area would verify on the euro rb. big 00z runs tonight. where does he go from there? due north or still more west.

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 20, 2021 2:11 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Thoughts?

I can’t disagree.

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 20, 2021 2:12 pm

rb924119 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Thoughts?

I can’t disagree.

so now might be talking he falls apart or stays a TS?

by **Sanchize06** Fri Aug 20, 2021 2:13 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:12z

0z

WOW, huge shift like crazy huge. One more shift like that and your area would verify on the euro rb. big 00z runs tonight. where does he go from there? due north or still more west.

Northwest or so

2021 Tropical Season - Page 16 Prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ne

by **Sanchize06** Fri Aug 20, 2021 2:14 pm

Extremely interested in the 12z EPS lol

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 20, 2021 2:15 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Thoughts?

I can’t disagree.
so now might be talking he falls apart or stays a TS?

Only if it can’t align its circulations. Otherwise, it should attain category 1 status pretty easily.

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 20, 2021 2:16 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:Extremely interested in the 12z EPS lol

plz post, if you have access to that circle plot mugs posted yesterday i really liked that the sgetti is so confusing. Hopefully we get a tighter cluster.

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 20, 2021 2:18 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:Extremely interested in the 12z EPS lol

Me too. Should be telling. If they still have a westward lean, then I’d really start to worry for substantial impacts for the Jersey Shore as well. Because that would signify that we still might not be done with further westward corrections.

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 20, 2021 2:22 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:Extremely interested in the 12z EPS lol

Me too. Should be telling. If they still have a westward lean, then I’d really start to worry for substantial impacts for the Jersey Shore as well. Because that would signify that we still might not be done with further westward corrections.

rb should i stock up on stuff? like non perishibles etc? do you feel confident enough in your area of potential landfall that the threat is real enough to go the route of potential large scale outages? doesnt take but 40-50mph to knock power here let alone 70 plus

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