Re: 2021 Tropical Season

by **sroc4** Fri Aug 20, 2021 4:00 pm

12z EPS track cluster

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 20, 2021 4:05 pm

18z NAM should be east of 12z

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 20, 2021 4:10 pm

rb924119 wrote:18z NAM should be east of 12z

I'm.confused 12z nam was a hit to Eastern LI so now u think it's head back towards RI and cape? Do u mean west?

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 20, 2021 4:15 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:18z NAM should be east of 12z
I'm.confused 12z nam was a hit to Eastern LI so now u think it's head back towards RI and cape? Do u mean west?

No, I meant east lol I’m not saying I think anything, just reporting on the latest run. It’s likely nothing more than just the typical oscillation between 00/12z runs and the off-hour 06/18z runs. But I’m providing quick updates because I’m sure people want to know lol my thinking remains unchanged as of now, especially with seeing the 12z EPS.

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Aug 20, 2021 4:16 pm

Accuweather’s latest stab at a forecast track…

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 20, 2021 4:17 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:18z NAM should be east of 12z
I'm.confused 12z nam was a hit to Eastern LI so now u think it's head back towards RI and cape? Do u mean west?

No, I meant east lol I’m not saying I think anything, just reporting on the latest run. It’s likely nothing more than just the typical oscillation between 00/12z runs and the off-hour 06/18z runs. But I’m providing quick updates because I’m sure people want to know lol my thinking remains unchanged as of now, especially with seeing the 12z EPS.

ahh ok. So when do u think models will settle in on ur area if you are right? Not many runs left b4 Sunday.

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 20, 2021 4:20 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:18z NAM should be east of 12z
I'm.confused 12z nam was a hit to Eastern LI so now u think it's head back towards RI and cape? Do u mean west?

No, I meant east lol I’m not saying I think anything, just reporting on the latest run. It’s likely nothing more than just the typical oscillation between 00/12z runs and the off-hour 06/18z runs. But I’m providing quick updates because I’m sure people want to know lol my thinking remains unchanged as of now, especially with seeing the 12z EPS.
ahh ok. So when do u think models will settle in on ur area if you are right? Not many runs left b4 Sunday.

It wouldn’t surprise if they don’t settle until it’s here with how bad they’ve been. Like with anything else, I think it’s gonna be a bit of a leap of faith to make a forecast for this, because modeling won’t fully converge until sometime during the day tomorrow.

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Aug 20, 2021 4:28 pm

Weatherbell/Joe Bastardi’s map, for sh*t’s ‘n giggles… Wink

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 20, 2021 4:32 pm

Yup nam into RI. It's wrong though lol. Nice call ray on that run.

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 20, 2021 4:33 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:18z NAM should be east of 12z
I'm.confused 12z nam was a hit to Eastern LI so now u think it's head back towards RI and cape? Do u mean west?

No, I meant east lol I’m not saying I think anything, just reporting on the latest run. It’s likely nothing more than just the typical oscillation between 00/12z runs and the off-hour 06/18z runs. But I’m providing quick updates because I’m sure people want to know lol my thinking remains unchanged as of now, especially with seeing the 12z EPS.
ahh ok. So when do u think models will settle in on ur area if you are right? Not many runs left b4 Sunday.

It wouldn’t surprise if they don’t settle until it’s here with how bad they’ve been. Like with anything else, I think it’s gonna be a bit of a leap of faith to make a forecast for this, because modeling won’t fully converge until sometime during the day tomorrow.

that is go be aweful. With a snowstorm that's cool. A barreling hurricane...not a good thing.

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 20, 2021 4:34 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Weatherbell/Joe Bastardi’s map, for sh*t’s ‘n giggles…

I don't think that's a bad call at all I think low end cat 2 is very possible imo. And the track falls in between models right now.

by **amugs** Fri Aug 20, 2021 4:55 pm

Ominous lean west

by **sroc4** Fri Aug 20, 2021 5:05 pm

Giddy up...5pm update

2021 Tropical Season - Page 18 152236_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 20, 2021 5:06 pm

ICON holds serve at 18z; KNYC special lol

by **phil155** Fri Aug 20, 2021 5:07 pm

TS watches have gone up for much of NJ, hoping this heads a bit further east but it seems like a case of can't always get what you want.... Sad

by **nutleyblizzard** Fri Aug 20, 2021 5:07 pm

I just got an alert on my I phone for a tropical storm watch in my area.

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Aug 20, 2021 5:18 pm

Our phones just went berserk over here on the Cape with the NHC issuing warnings with their 5pm advisory up and down the S. New England/Long Island coastlines…

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 20, 2021 5:42 pm

sroc4 wrote:Giddy up...5pm update

surprised didn't go with hurricane watch at least for NYC area. I know you disagree with Ray on his far west solution but it is plausible no? Cone did shift west thpugh. May not be done.

by **jmanley32** Fri Aug 20, 2021 5:45 pm

rb924119 wrote:ICON holds serve at 18z; KNYC special lol

are you surprised that nhc stayed with TS warning for Nassau NYC and southern wc?

by Zhukov1945 Fri Aug 20, 2021 5:46 pm

Anyone have thoughts on the relative level of disorganization on Henri now and its ability (or lack thereof) to restore itself and strengthen (or not)?

by JackShephard Fri Aug 20, 2021 5:51 pm

Do you think the Hurricane watches will be dropped for Cape Cod? Heading up there tomorrow.

by **Sanchize06** Fri Aug 20, 2021 5:53 pm

18z GFS another slight tick west of 12z

by **sroc4** Fri Aug 20, 2021 5:54 pm

rb924119 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Im not done with yet Ray...lol I still think my side of the argument is more correct. Im at work and struggling to find the time to rebuttal. But I will. lol

I would expect nothing less!! Lmaoooo now, get back to saving Fluffy!!!

I dont have time to further my argument tonight BUT take a listen to Levi's video.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Obv fast forward to the discussion on Henri, I believe it starts at about 2:15. He seems to be 100% on my side with the point Im trying to make, and actually talks about it in the video. And for the record I posted my argument at 1:17pm and he posted his video at 1:30pm and I do not have his number, so I didn't call him before hand lol

All our differences aside I REALLY appreciate your contributions. Ive learned a ton from you over the last few yrs. You did an absolutely phenomenal job at sniffing out the big picture with this. You truly have a gift my friend.

WE TRACK!! What a Face

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 20, 2021 5:54 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:ICON holds serve at 18z; KNYC special lol
are you surprised that nhc stayed with TS warning for Nassau NYC and southern wc?

No - again, they pretty much stick with the hurricane models, so that’s on the periphery in their estimation.

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 20, 2021 5:55 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:18z GFS another slight tick west of 12z

Gahhh you beat me to it!! Haha

by **rb924119** Fri Aug 20, 2021 5:57 pm

Zhukov1945 wrote:Anyone have thoughts on the relative level of disorganization on Henri now and its ability (or lack thereof) to restore itself and strengthen (or not)?

Check a few pages back, somebody posted a little discussion from Twitter about this. If you still have questions about it, then follow up Smile

but that may answer your question sufficiently.

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Aug 20, 2021 5:57 pm

JackShephard wrote:Do you think the Hurricane watches will be dropped for Cape Cod? Heading up there tomorrow.

I do, if the track remains this west. However, the NHC just issued a Storm Surge Warning for the Cape which I believe will remain in place as astronomical high tides will produce coastal flooding well away from the center of Henri, especially to the east of it with a fetch off the Atlantic.

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