2021 Tropical Season

jmanley32 wrote:any other places suggesting its taking a sharper west turn? or are we the only crazy ones out there?

Well mugsy posted something earlier from another forum that I no longer go to regarding start of the turn at the same time I did, so I think there are others lol

ray im looking closer at the infrared, look at the lower level clouds, i think the convection is being pulled west but not the cane, there is def a marked trek north too, so maybe at best its NW

I swear it just pulled a “left hook, Clyde” and heading due west.

jmanley32 wrote:ray im looking closer at the infrared, look at the lower level clouds, i think the convection is being pulled west but not the cane, there is def a marked trek north too, so maybe at best its NW

That’s my argument, though; if the convection is being pulled west, then the circulation should follow.

ray heres the other one, frank swears to use both of these during snowstorms at the same time. it def is a great set radars.

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1Kphla_h.gif

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:ray im looking closer at the infrared, look at the lower level clouds, i think the convection is being pulled west but not the cane, there is def a marked trek north too, so maybe at best its NW

That’s my argument, though; if the convection is being pulled west, then the circulation should follow.

he is also looking more disorganized again, has he left the gulf stream? if not he is close.

WOW ray western side 55kt winds! Thats a big increase and helps ur track right?

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:ray im looking closer at the infrared, look at the lower level clouds, i think the convection is being pulled west but not the cane, there is def a marked trek north too, so maybe at best its NW

That’s my argument, though; if the convection is being pulled west, then the circulation should follow.

he is also looking more disorganized again, has he left the gulf stream? if not he is close.

Oo I don’t think so; that main circulation still looks ok to me lol but yeah, probably crossing the dividing line now.

The rainiest hour in NYC’s HISTORY just occurred between 11pm & midnight with 1.91” falling!

jmanley32 wrote:WOW ray western side 55kt winds! Thats a big increase and helps ur track right?

Theoretically, yes.

rb924119 wrote:I swear it just pulled a “left hook, Clyde” and heading due west.

Looks like its moving wnw on satellite to me.

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:ray im looking closer at the infrared, look at the lower level clouds, i think the convection is being pulled west but not the cane, there is def a marked trek north too, so maybe at best its NW

That’s my argument, though; if the convection is being pulled west, then the circulation should follow.

he is also looking more disorganized again, has he left the gulf stream? if not he is close.

Oo I don’t think so; that main circulation still looks ok to me lol but yeah, probably crossing the dividing line now.

ray look at the 1st radar the one with western LI on it, he is coming into the picture and it is NOT at a northern movement....

SoulSingMG wrote:The rainiest hour in NYC’s HISTORY just occurred between 11pm & midnight with 1.91” falling!

Sure you didn’t mean Jacksonville?? Lol seriously though, that’s wilddddddd.

hyde345 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I swear it just pulled a “left hook, Clyde” and heading due west.

Looks like its moving wnw on satellite to me.

i know we have been honking the horn on this me and ray for past hour, this could be the biggest flop of NHC ever if this verifies and ends up hitting rays original area which is smack into nyc.

hyde345 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I swear it just pulled a “left hook, Clyde” and heading due west.

Looks like its moving wnw on satellite to me.

Tomato, tomahto. It’s close enough for me and much “better” than NNE like everything/body else has :p besides, I’m posting from mobile this whole time, these small screens distort images sometimes haha

recon breaks the past 3 pages....moving barely west of due north...and weakening.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF302-1108A-HENRI.png

jmanley32 wrote:

hyde345 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I swear it just pulled a “left hook, Clyde” and heading due west.

Looks like its moving wnw on satellite to me.

i know we have been honking the horn on this me and ray for past hour, this could be the biggest flop of NHC ever if this verifies and ends up hitting rays original area which is smack into nyc.

Minor correction: I had the center of circulation passing a little eas of NYC proper, but not by much. 20-30 miles maybe? That’s if you took that cone of confidence right down the middle lol

recon confirms ray its almost due north, not sure why the convection is being sheared from the top, might tear him apart?

dont run away yet ray, they could have had a error in recon who knows, one plane broke today, another is headed in now.

SoulSingMG wrote:The rainiest hour in NYC’s HISTORY just occurred between 11pm & midnight with 1.91” falling!

Wow!
Same bands hit here in Essex County. I was out during that time and I can vouch for it being nuts.

jmanley32 wrote:dont run away yet ray, they could have had a error in recon who knows, one plane broke today, another is headed in now.

I’m not running; I was investigating lol idk, what they say and what eyes are telling me are two very different things right now. How could it go from the lower-right of that lat/lon grid box toward the top-left and be moving almost due north? Makes no sense.

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:dont run away yet ray, they could have had a error in recon who knows, one plane broke today, another is headed in now.

I’m not running; I was investigating lol idk, what they say and what eyes are telling me are two very different things right now. How could it go from the lower-right of that lat/lon grid box toward the top-left and be moving almost due north? Makes no sense.

Agree 100%. My eyes tell me its moving more west than north.

I’m not gonna it gang, my eyes are closing lol

rb924119 wrote:I’m not gonna it gang, my eyes are closing lol

i think me too.

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I’m not gonna it gang, my eyes are closing lol

i think me too.

well he is 180 miles south of montauk, at 21mph whereever he is going he will be there mid morning, far earlier than the original sunday night landfall time. unless he really slows down soon.