Re: 2021 Tropical Season

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 5:35 pm

Joe Snow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Is THAT AN EYE? OR JUST A VERY CIRCULAR opening in the clouds, looks like a eye to me.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=08L&product=ir

Yep sure does....................

what do you think about NHC continued push to the east and that met the other user was saying they think nantucket, a stronger storm which clearly he is becoming is likely going to head more west watch 11pm advisory shift cone back west lol, this is so funny in a way. recon on its way in im guessing we see at minimum a 80mph cane.

by **amugs** Sat Aug 21, 2021 5:40 pm

Drove back from being upstate and in the Ramapo Service Area both sides filled with utilities trucks!! And about 8 in a convoy coming South from Binghamton as we drove as well.
They don't do this for shits n giggles.

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 5:41 pm

amugs wrote:Drove back from being upstate and in the Ramapo Service Area both sides filled with utilities trucks!! And about 8 in a convoy coming South from Binghamton as we drove as well.
They don't do this for shits n giggles.

we will see mugs, nhc riding the east track, but hrrr just came in showing a approach on LI and in last frame starts go due west!

by **amugs** Sat Aug 21, 2021 5:44 pm

by **Dunnzoo** Sat Aug 21, 2021 6:07 pm

jmanley32 wrote:NY declares SOE this morning.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/henri-expected-become-hurricane-inches-closer-long-island-new-england-n1277364

Yep, makes my decision easier to not travel tomorrow, had tix for the Eagles at the Garden, now moved to Wednesday. cheers

Some rain showers here in Seaside Park, going to look at the ocean in a little bit...

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 6:10 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:NY declares SOE this morning.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/henri-expected-become-hurricane-inches-closer-long-island-new-england-n1277364

Yep, makes my decision easier to not travel tomorrow, had tix for the Eagles at the Garden, now moved to Wednesday.

Some rain showers here in Seaside Park, going to look at the ocean in a little bit...

aww man wish i was with you i love watching the surf!!

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 6:18 pm

rb did you pass out again lol. want to know if you still think your turn is valid or if the eastern track is more likely, look how organized he is getting now on watervapor, quite impressive, i wasnt expect that he would intensify to looking like this, being they missed recon data for 5pm that might have messed upo the models especially if theres a big increase in henris intensity which i think by looks he could be high end cat 1 now. at very least a mid cat 1.

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 6:20 pm

recon finding 50mph winds on very fringe sw side, i think winds will be more symetrical and less all on right side. lets see. love watching the recon missions. do you all know bout the 3d view live at myfoxhurricane.com?

by **SoulSingMG** Sat Aug 21, 2021 6:31 pm

This is some impressive convection offshore about to move into the city/NJ, well ahead of Hurricane Henri…

by **essexcountypete** Sat Aug 21, 2021 6:35 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:This is some impressive convection offshore about to move into the city/NJ, well ahead of Hurricane Henri…

Wow, look at that. That's not going to fall apart like everything else has today

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 6:42 pm

Wow 5pm advisory says TS winds have expanded to 150 miles out. this morning it was 90 miles.

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 6:46 pm

Recon is finding winds to near 70mph on western SW side, so looks like the windfield is evening out a bit, ill be interested to see how high they are on eastern side.

by **SoulSingMG** Sat Aug 21, 2021 6:47 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Recon is finding winds to near 70mph on western SW side, so looks like the windfield is evening out a bit, ill be interested to see how high they are on eastern side.

They also found a 984 mb reading…

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 6:50 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Recon is finding winds to near 70mph on western SW side, so looks like the windfield is evening out a bit, ill be interested to see how high they are on eastern side.

They also found a 984 mb reading…

I missed that WOW, might be a 80 or 90mph cane. And I think with the new data we will see a west track again, the recon that failed to make it had the 18z models with a weak storm, i think that fooled the models. Is that a far fetched idea?

by Zhukov1945 Sat Aug 21, 2021 7:07 pm

Feel like the 18z gfs coming around to what hrrr has been saying all along about a hard left hook. If this happens a bit sw of where the gfs is NJ is going to wash away…

by **weatherwatchermom** Sat Aug 21, 2021 7:12 pm

Zhukov1945 wrote:Feel like the 18z gfs coming around to what hrrr has been saying all along about a hard left hook. If this happens a bit sw of where the gfs is NJ is going to wash away…

can I hit the dislike button for that??

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 7:13 pm

Zhukov1945 wrote:Feel like the 18z gfs coming around to what hrrr has been saying all along about a hard left hook. If this happens a bit sw of where the gfs is NJ is going to wash away…

21z HRRR is far western LI into southern westchester NY, not good, that angle will pile the water up into NY harbor in LI sound. It is also a lot weaker in that model run by about 15mb but again they missed a recon input, theres now 984mb readings i expect 00z to correct west.

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 7:15 pm

huge blowup of convection around center, lost the eye for now on infrared but the convection is concerning for RI.

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 7:21 pm

is in concerning that surface winds on recon are higher than the flight level winds on some points?

by **Dunnzoo** Sat Aug 21, 2021 7:36 pm

Looking at the current location, it's so far east. Can't imagine it's going to go as far west as the models are projecting. Sorry, can't seem to get a good pic to post here, internet isn't great.

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 7:41 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:Looking at the current location, it's so far east. Can't imagine it's going to go as far west as the models are projecting. Sorry, can't seem to get a good pic to post here, internet isn't great.

Well since 12z I dunno if you saw them its been shown to be going much further east than was b4. but HRRR and GFS are much closer to western LI. 00z's are go be interesting but rb did say the models may be of no use and this may be a nowcaster

by **Dunnzoo** Sat Aug 21, 2021 7:45 pm

yes, definitely an nowcast. Rotation already approaching JFK:

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 7:48 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:yes, definitely an nowcast. Rotation already approaching JFK:

I think I agree with ray that that ULL which looks now connected to Henri should be pull him due north or NW soon.

by **dkodgis** Sat Aug 21, 2021 7:55 pm

At the Middletown NY Walmart, across from the Galleria mall I saw 30 utility trucks parked. I read about a month ago, Orange and Rockland had to pay a $98 million dollar fine for a lack of preparedness in responding to a storm a few years ago. I guess that scared the shirt right off their backs. I am set. Two generators, 30 gallons of fresh gas with fuel stabilizer and if necessary a couple of window air conditioner units. And of course a hot spot for interneting the tv’s and laptops, unlimited. Trees were trimmed back this past year and curtain drains work. Hopefully here and you all are safe. Where is CPCantmeasurerain when he is needed? Very Happy

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 21, 2021 8:36 pm

no where is rb? and sroc? we need their expert analysis is this coming Nor NW at all or keep on a NNE NE trajectory?

by **dkodgis** Sat Aug 21, 2021 8:45 pm

I heard tonight's Central Park concert was canceled due to lightning. Playing it safe.

by **dkodgis** Sat Aug 21, 2021 8:50 pm

The storm response fine was a bit less, $86.2. Sorry about that

https://www.lohud.com/story/news/2021/07/15/con-edison-central-hudson-frontier-tropical-storm-isaias-settlment/7978525002/

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