Re: 2021 Tropical Season

by **jmanley32** Sun Aug 22, 2021 12:52 am

rb924119 wrote:I’m not gonna it gang, my eyes are closing lol

i think me too.

by **jmanley32** Sun Aug 22, 2021 12:54 am

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:I’m not gonna it gang, my eyes are closing lol
i think me too.

well he is 180 miles south of montauk, at 21mph whereever he is going he will be there mid morning, far earlier than the original sunday night landfall time. unless he really slows down soon.

by **rb924119** Sun Aug 22, 2021 2:35 am

Northward movement resumed. It’s official, sroc, NHC, and the modeling win out on this one with an eastern Long Island landfall, but I just can’t make sense of this one.

by **rb924119** Sun Aug 22, 2021 2:42 am

Sorry, folks.

by **jmanley32** Sun Aug 22, 2021 7:02 am

Yup rb northward ho, outer bands of rain dont even reach this far. No idea why we still have a TS warning, the winds do not reach past CT, well good job anyways. No sleeping all day to make up for this heap of wasted time lol (not cuz it did not pan out for your track) this is why i always say don't get caught up in the wx. lol

by **jmanley32** Sun Aug 22, 2021 7:05 am

Actually not even eastern LI, looks like a RI/MA hit, ironic, well hopefully they prepared. It is just cloudy and dry here, gonna head on over to my flea market as planned.

by **jmanley32** Sun Aug 22, 2021 7:17 am

No idea what WPC is thinking they have windspread 4-6 inches rain over hudson valley and NYC it isnt even going to get close to there.

by **weatherwatchermom** Sun Aug 22, 2021 7:17 am

rb924119 wrote:Sorry, folks.

WHY are you sorry??? Did you give it your best effort?? Unless you intentionally gave incorrect information never apologize...THANK the heavens above that this storm turned east . hopefully east enough to not create as much damage as possible...it gave us something to track...this summer weather has been boring and HOT...you are great at what you do.. look it over, learn from, it move on. BUT don't apologize...

by **Scullybutcher** Sun Aug 22, 2021 7:18 am

Rains and steady winds have moved in over here

by **weatherwatchermom** Sun Aug 22, 2021 7:19 am

jmanley32 wrote:Actually not even eastern LI, looks like a RI/MA hit, ironic, well hopefully they prepared. It is just cloudy and dry here, gonna head on over to my flea market as planned.

Jman it is terrentialy raining here right now..

by **weatherwatchermom** Sun Aug 22, 2021 7:22 am

jmanley32 wrote:Yup rb northward ho, outer bands of rain dont even reach this far. No idea why we still have a TS warning, the winds do not reach past CT, well good job anyways. No sleeping all day to make up for this heap of wasted time lol (not cuz it did not pan out for your track) this is why i always say don't get caught up in the wx. lol

did you have fun tracking?? If yes not a waste of time?

by **jmanley32** Sun Aug 22, 2021 7:27 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Yup rb northward ho, outer bands of rain dont even reach this far. No idea why we still have a TS warning, the winds do not reach past CT, well good job anyways. No sleeping all day to make up for this heap of wasted time lol (not cuz it did not pan out for your track) this is why i always say don't get caught up in the wx. lol
did you have fun tracking?? If yes not a waste of time?

lol yeah I guess so, it is just sprinkling here,

by **dkodgis** Sun Aug 22, 2021 7:30 am

It rained a bit last night but not enough to mention. Very still here. No rain 76. Surprisingly a tad less humidity. So far, a non-event. It was fun to see the board light up.

by **Dunnzoo** Sun Aug 22, 2021 7:48 am

So far in Seaside Park we got 1.53" of rain. Had a little wind overnight but not terrible. Ray, great job tracking Henri, and don't be sorry. Excellent analysis, and a great learning opportunity. I would love to hear your post-storm analysis, because what you proposed made sense to me too.

jman, I wouldn't hurry out and about just yet, more rain and flooding will be headed your way and you don't want to be stuck somewhere.

Hope everyone is doing ok, be safe!

by **Scullybutcher** Sun Aug 22, 2021 7:53 am

Very happy to have been prepared for the worst, and the story is still being told. Thank you RB

by **jmanley32** Sun Aug 22, 2021 8:06 am

Dunnzoo wrote:So far in Seaside Park we got 1.53" of rain. Had a little wind overnight but not terrible. Ray, great job tracking Henri, and don't be sorry. Excellent analysis, and a great learning opportunity. I would love to hear your post-storm analysis, because what you proposed made sense to me too.

jman, I wouldn't hurry out and about just yet, more rain and flooding will be headed your way and you don't want to be stuck somewhere.

Hope everyone is doing ok, be safe!

it doesn't look like it's go reach here. But wpc has a ton rain coming this way not sure from where. I'm just go run up street get some breakfast. It is raining here now. I agree rb and sroc did a great job. One was go be off I wouldn't say either were wrong. I doubt this b our last tropical system to track either. TS warning still says gusts to 45 mph but it just doesn't look like Windfield will reach this far. Things could change. He hasn't slowed either like was expected. I have some friends in RI tgey look to get a direct hit.

by Nyi1058 Sun Aug 22, 2021 8:53 am

Too bad we didn’t get enough cold
Air in to make this a snowstorm

by **dkodgis** Sun Aug 22, 2021 9:00 am

rb924119#1

...and still the heavyweight champion of the world

by **Grselig** Sun Aug 22, 2021 9:06 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Sorry, folks.
WHY are you sorry??? Did you give it your best effort?? Unless you intentionally gave incorrect information never apologize...THANK the heavens above that this storm turned east . hopefully east enough to not create as much damage as possible...it gave us something to track...this summer weather has been boring and HOT...you are great at what you do.. look it over, learn from, it move on. BUT don't apologize...

RB, Apologies for what. You did a great job of explaining and analyzing this thing. Knowledge gained as weaterwatchermom said. Thanks for all your work. Its appreciated!!

by **Vinnydula** Sun Aug 22, 2021 9:07 am

Light rain with no wind

as I expected

by **SENJsnowman** Sun Aug 22, 2021 9:23 am

Just wanted to say thanks so much to Jman and rb, and also to sroc and the rest of the crew for all the wonderful input this week. The board really did light up and the personal highlight for me was watching as more and more of our experts joined in. I was reaching for my phone in the middle of the night to see what the latest and greatest was. That's usually strictly a winter storm behavior for me, but it was all just too engaging. Not to mention a bit too close!! Having taken a vicious west hook from Ms. Sandy on the chin about a decade, I was happy to see the crosshairs never really get this far south and west (I'm at exit 80 GSP- due west of the Seaside Park- about 1.5 miles inland from the bay.)

But Jman and rb, you guys really stole the show this week imo. Your interaction esp made everything so clear. Jman kicking so much knowledge- I had to 'pass' on a lot of what you said too, Jman! Just above my level of comprehension. lol

Hopefully everyone in SNE escapes unscathed. My father in law lives in a 100 yr old cape house way up in P-town. The insides of many buildings in the Cape and in central Beantown were destroyed just a few years ago via the saltwater storm surge. This was from the the Jan 4, 2018 bomb-genesis that occurred when an intense low came streaking up the coast leaving a foot or more of white gold over the eastern sections of our board ( 2021 Tropical Season - Page 31 1f60d

) but causing immense flooding via storm surge by the team it reached Cape Cod Bay and RedSoxSux Harbor as it bombed out. So the city and the northern Cape towns that lie on south shores, like P-town and Truro etc... got decimated via the surge ( 2021 Tropical Season - Page 31 1f62a

).

by **amugs** Sun Aug 22, 2021 9:36 am

Calm winds and moderate rain. It stayed east, may clip eastern twin forks. Not as strong as once projected. Ray, SROC, JMAN gave great analysis. Frank put the Mush on this when he went to Storm mode!! Models went back to their original track from about 5 days ago. Signs were there for a hook west but you'll here folks say that rarely happens Yada Yada. True but when you looked at synopsis of the pattern there were signs that this was a good possibility. Many can now sleep this ugly day away and have some peace of mind in this area. Onto the next possibility next month peeps. Yes there will be another one before we end this hcane season I believe that we'll be tracking.

by **jmanley32** Sun Aug 22, 2021 9:58 am

Wow I've never gotten so much nice feedback b4. And here I'm thinking I'm just replying with nothing of real value. Thsnks guys for the props but had
It not been learning from rb I would never really understood the whole way this might have panned out. My friend in RI sent me video it's really coming down there but doesn't seem a lot of wind.

by **amugs** Sun Aug 22, 2021 9:59 am

Just gusted to 68 mph on Block Island @NWSNewYorkNY @NWSBoston @WX1BOX @GregPostel pic.twitter.com/Unmzz4tE5F
— Nick DiGiovanni (@nickdigiWX) August 22, 2021

by **jmanley32** Sun Aug 22, 2021 10:00 am

Sounds like moderate to heavy rain on the AC. I'm in bed lol 3 days of tracking all night I'm wiped. I crashed out last night but I wanted to see it through

by **frank 638** Sun Aug 22, 2021 10:06 am

Moderate rain come wins and I have to say This was a tough tough call for a tropical storm. I want to say thank you so much to jman sroc amugs and ray You guys really did a excellent job .
I just don’t understand people I have a lot of my coworkers call me on scene where is the storm we have no wind you may be spent so much money on a generator and I always tell him why wait for the last-minute Especially when we’re having a hurricane or a blizzard you know you guys lose power I always thought everybody prepare for the worst because predicting the weather is very very hard it’s not easy job

by **amugs** Sun Aug 22, 2021 10:10 am

97
NOUS41 KOKX 221354
PNSOKX
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-230154-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
954 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...HIGHEST WIND REPORTS...

Location Speed Time/Date Provider

...Connecticut...

...New London County...
USCG Academy 49 MPH 0833 AM 08/22 WXFLOW
Groton Airport 39 MPH 0837 AM 08/22 ASOS

...New York...

...Suffolk County...
Baiting Hollow 50 MPH 0850 AM 08/22 CWOP
Napeague 48 MPH 0849 AM 08/22 WXFLOW
Shinnecock 42 MPH 0859 AM 08/22 WXFLOW
Great Gull Island 46 MPH 0841 AM 08/22 WXFLOW
Orient Point 38 MPH 0805 AM 08/22 CWOP
Mecox Bay 38 MPH 0811 AM 08/22 WXFLOW
Southold 37 MPH 0817 AM 08/22 CWOP
Westhampton Airport 37 MPH 0836 AM 08/22 ASOS
Stony Brook 37 MPH 0838 AM 08/22 CWOP
Montauk Airport 36 MPH 0800 AM 08/22 ASOS
Shirley Airport 36 MPH 0849 AM 08/22 ASOS
Southold 36 MPH 0905 AM 08/22 NYSM
East Hampton 35 MPH 0855 AM 08/22 AWOS
Orient 35 MPH 0901 AM 08/22 CWOP

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