Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

by **rb924119** Thu Jan 06, 2022 6:17 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
chief7 wrote:I’m hopping on the RB and amugs Train full steam ahead boys bring her home

Me three

by **rb924119** Thu Jan 06, 2022 6:20 pm

EPS Weeklies also flipped - verbatim, we rock through all of January before it tries flipping us back to the pattern we had in December, just like the GFS Extended. However, I know the EPS weeklies are not exactly too reliable once beyond Week 2-3 anyway - look how late they are to the party this time. So, that being said, I’ll take the Weeklies’ flip to cold for this entire month as a victory for now, and be happy that my ideas continue gaining momentum.

by **amugs** Thu Jan 06, 2022 7:19 pm

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 22 Fidezp10

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 22 Fideud10

Money Baby!!

by **lglickman1** Thu Jan 06, 2022 7:44 pm

Is there still a storm signal for next weekend?

by chief7 Thu Jan 06, 2022 7:50 pm

I would like to add this to RB and amugs arsenal https://files.usa-wx.com/monthly_2022_01/cpc_heavy_snow_threat_assessment.jpg.bfa4bd23892a59faad73d7e1cdd0304a.jpg I don’t know why it’s not letting me put the image up but anyway it’s showing a strong single for a heavy snow from the Virginia all the way up

by chief7 Thu Jan 06, 2022 8:01 pm

***Experimental***
Slight
1/15/2022
1/17/2022
Slight
1/14/2022
Climate Prediction Center
Made: 01/06/2022 3PM EST
High (60%) : ==: Moderate (40%) F...Slight (20%)
Follow us: fy

by **amugs** Thu Jan 06, 2022 8:12 pm

Yes there is a storm signal Glick and nChief thanks for sharing:

MJO phase 7 and then 8 .

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 22 Diagram_40days_forecast_GEFSBC_member

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 22 Diagram_40days_forecast_GEFSBC_member

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 22 CFSO_phase_full

by **amugs** Thu Jan 06, 2022 8:26 pm

My Gosh teh GFS hammers us with cold next week and weekend then again after! Lows single digits and highs mid teens to mid 20's at best. 4-5" of snow adn those bad boys are reduced by a few degrees if not more on a clear calm night!

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 07, 2022 9:23 am

There’s a brief stretch of normal to above normal temps and possibly some rain as we lose the -EPO. But, it’s pretty clear the atmosphere is resetting so that an even stronger -EPO develops in the middle to end of this month. The staying power of the future -EPO/+PNA remains to be seen. Let’s just get there first!

by **rb924119** Fri Jan 07, 2022 10:43 am

Folks, these are ENSEMBLE MEANS AT DAY 15. To see anomalies THIS STRONG across any ensemble mean at Day 15 is crazy, BUT ALL THREE????

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 22 Cc598710

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 22 87f08610

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 22 7542df10

GFS says MJO is going to Phase 8 BIGLY, and I think it’s on the right track. So we should the other Ensembles continue to correct toward its H5 map above:

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 22 92468910

This would align well with mugsy’s post above:

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 22 75190510

I’m getting more and more excited here gang, I won’t lie. The one thing that has me irked, though, is the relative dearth of snow being forecast across the ensembles. We had a flicker last night of heftier events, but excluding the 00z suite, the ensembles have not been enthused. But, I have to trust the process here, and “if we build it (the pattern), they will come.” I’ve always loved playing sports, the weather is my Field of Dreams.

by **amugs** Fri Jan 07, 2022 11:12 am

Rb remember the lad between the pattern the outcomes. In my years of tracking we see this time n time again. Be reassured it will come to fruition and we'll be doing mucho tracking.
The slow roll of the MJO is enthusiastic and we must also see that the MJO has a way of repeating its phases after it goes into COD meaning if after phase 1 into COD it may reappear in Phase 8 again. Again in Nina patterns this has been a perpetuated many times.

by **amugs** Fri Jan 07, 2022 11:13 am

Here's our boy Rb. Great signal 230 hours out!!

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 22 1642356000-h64fInvQgyI

by **dkodgis** Fri Jan 07, 2022 11:17 am

My my early next week will hit 0 at night up here

by **amugs** Fri Jan 07, 2022 11:18 am

Frank_Wx wrote:There’s a brief stretch of normal to above normal temps and possibly some rain as we lose the -EPO. But, it’s pretty clear the atmosphere is resetting so that an even stronger -EPO develops in the middle to end of this month. The staying power of the future -EPO/+PNA remains to be seen. Let’s just get there first!

Frank not picking here but have you seen the GFS and EURO temps for next week. Seeing the snow-covered now has corrected after the front comes through Sunday night/Monday is very cold.

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 22 Ca27a710

by **Irish** Fri Jan 07, 2022 11:50 am

Let's reel in the next one for the 16th!

by **heehaw453** Fri Jan 07, 2022 11:52 am

If this verifies then this will most likely produce something significant to potentially major. RB has honked on this for sometime and models seem to be coming around. RB can we do this?!

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 22 Gefs21

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 07, 2022 12:03 pm

amugs wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:There’s a brief stretch of normal to above normal temps and possibly some rain as we lose the -EPO. But, it’s pretty clear the atmosphere is resetting so that an even stronger -EPO develops in the middle to end of this month. The staying power of the future -EPO/+PNA remains to be seen. Let’s just get there first!

Frank not picking here but have you seen the GFS and EURO temps for next week. Seeing the snow-covered now has corrected after the front comes through Sunday night/Monday is very cold.

There will be a couple of days early in the week that will be cold, but there’s definitely going to be a period of slightly milder weather as the ridge collapses and the jet extension reaches our coast. The progression of the orange/red shades on the GEFS is shown below.

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 22 193ace10

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 22 4c2fae10

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 22 C6d11010

Then, we see signs of the EPO ridge back build and extreme cold get into the upper CONUS beyond day 12. Day 12 and onward is when I think we get into our most brutal stretch of the winter with cold and hopefully snow opportunities.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 07, 2022 12:04 pm

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 22 F3447410

Here’s the beyond day 12 signal

by **Snow88** Fri Jan 07, 2022 12:47 pm

Gfs looks really good in the mid to long range. Beautiful pna.

by **amugs** Fri Jan 07, 2022 12:48 pm

The SE Ridge is not flexing and nor is the PAC JET as you have the EPO/PNA couplet tandem at work. Time will tell but I say the pattern kicks in after the bigly storm in high gear IMO as phase 8 of the MJO is at play as well. Time will tell.

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 22 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_51

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 22 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_51

by **Dunnzoo** Fri Jan 07, 2022 1:11 pm

Looks like I'm bringing in my outdoor decorations the end of next week, take advantage of the thaw! I just need to get my mom on the plane to Florida 1/13 and then I don't care lol

by **Irish** Fri Jan 07, 2022 1:45 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:Looks like I'm bringing in my outdoor decorations the end of next week, take advantage of the thaw! I just need to get my mom on the plane to Florida 1/13 and then I don't care lol

Did this last weekend seeing the cold and storm threats we had this week. So glad i did! It'd be frozen and under 6 inches of snow.

by **phil155** Fri Jan 07, 2022 1:53 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:Looks like I'm bringing in my outdoor decorations the end of next week, take advantage of the thaw! I just need to get my mom on the plane to Florida 1/13 and then I don't care lol

I have to bring mine in as well and seeing how they are covered now it may take a while lol

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 07, 2022 5:51 pm

lglickman1 wrote:Is there still a storm signal for next weekend?

Yes…

Going to be a little boring until then. But the following dates of interest are:

15th-16th
20th-22nd
27th-29th

The signal is also pretty strong for all three, but the one that seems to have a lot of attention is the 20th as that is when the talked about pattern is expected to be at its maturity.

by **lglickman1** Fri Jan 07, 2022 5:59 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
lglickman1 wrote:Is there still a storm signal for next weekend?

Yes…

Going to be a little boring until then. But the following dates of interest are:

15th-16th
20th-22nd
27th-29th

The signal is also pretty strong for all three, but the one that seems to have a lot of attention is the 20th as that is when the talked about pattern is expected to be at its maturity.

Sweet! Looking forward to tracking!

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 08, 2022 3:07 am

Mugsy - If we build it, they will come. We are building it, and I think they’ll be coming lol

Frank - Great post regarding storm threats. I’ve not paid attention to the 27th-29th, but I’ll take your word for it Wink

Heehaw - I don’t think there’s any question of whether or not we CAN do it. The potential in the pattern is there. The question is whether or not that potential will be realized. There are some interesting goings on for the 13th-16th threat regarding the evolution, and I’m probably going to do a video discussion either tomorrow (really today at this point lol) or Sunday highlighting exactly what I mean. But basically, you have a juxtaposition of a decaying progressive pattern within a larger retrograding pattern that’s reaching the end of its retrogression. Now, to me, my preliminary excitement for this particular period still appears to be warranted BIGLY based on two things: 1) pattern recognition and 2) looking at the intricacies of the ensembles and how they should eventually evolve as we start getting inside Day 4-5. And yes, I do think it will take that long before we “see” the threat really showing up on guidance. And based on preliminary analysis, I don’t think we will be talking about another 5-10 incher. I don’t want to hype too much, but I think the potential ceiling is VERY MUCH HIGHER than that. And that’s just system 1. We are entering a pattern that is not dissimilar from the pattern that produced Snowmageddon, in my opinion.

by chief7 Sat Jan 08, 2022 3:09 am

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/conus/vort500_z500/1641600000/1642334400-qD1HlX9JIzA.png

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