Re: January 2022 Obs & Discussions

by **amugs** Wed Jan 19, 2022 10:17 am

We are still anticipating a period of snow during the Thursday AM commute with light accumulations in the NYC Metro and surrounding areas. Roads are likely to be very slick, with temperatures dropping quickly right before the snow begins. pic.twitter.com/LkSUmEsz25
— New York Metro Weather (@nymetrowx) January 19, 2022

by **amugs** Wed Jan 19, 2022 10:19 am

BOOK it Dan O! - remember that show my fellow AARers?
HREF is a great SR compilation tool

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 13 Snowfall_024h_pmm_ne.f04800.png.5dd182ecb77912c47184fec9d9d6712c

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 13 Snowfall_024h_pmm_ne.f04800.png.5dd182ecb77912c47184fec9d9d6712c

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 19, 2022 10:22 am

amugs wrote:BOOK it Dan O! - remember that show my fellow AARers?
HREF is a great SR compilation tool

Someone could get 4" out of this. Dynamic cooling will probably enhance precip rates. The 4" on colder surfaces though.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 19, 2022 10:22 am

amugs wrote:BOOK it Dan O! - remember that show my fellow AARers?
HREF is a great SR compilation tool

I love that there's a blip of 4-6 right IMBY, literally. Of course I am in eastern CT, still should see a nice snowfall here as it is away from the coast and it does not look like the rain will be a factor.

by **docstox12** Wed Jan 19, 2022 10:38 am

amugs wrote:BOOK it Dan O! - remember that show my fellow AARers?
HREF is a great SR compilation tool

For mugsy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AepyGm9Me6w

27 degrees, sun trying to break through and calm. Will be nice to get a few inches as per this map.

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 19, 2022 10:50 am

We have to watch for last minute trends, but 4" seems like an upper limit on this one.

12Z GFS

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 13 Gfs54

by **hyde345** Wed Jan 19, 2022 10:52 am

I think everybody gets to see 1-3 out of this with maybe a 4 inch jackpot in LHV. Im expecting 1-1.5 IMBY.

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 19, 2022 11:00 am

Your best lift will most likely be right in the darkest colors. The dynamic cooling will be occurring so I expect colder surfaces to have a shot at 4". Just want to see if that shifts n/s at we get to game time.

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 13 Bestra10

by **Dunnzoo** Wed Jan 19, 2022 11:19 am

docstox12 wrote:
amugs wrote:BOOK it Dan O! - remember that show my fellow AARers?
HREF is a great SR compilation tool

For mugsy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AepyGm9Me6w

27 degrees, sun trying to break through and calm. Will be nice to get a few inches as per this map.

haha, yes remember that show well, actually been watching reruns lately as we are headed there next month.

39* and cloudy, actually not bad out. I figure mugsy and I can get a few inches out of it, going to be a mess for the commute here.

by **amugs** Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:13 pm

Bobby going all in for a nice little vent in the red zone region - consolation to this weekend?

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 13 Snowmap10-5-1024x575

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 13 Snowmap10-5-1024x575

by **amugs** Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:16 pm

heehaw453 wrote:We have to watch for last minute trends, but 4" seems like an upper limit on this one.

12Z GFS

All hail the GFS!!! Late to this party and those will bow down to it as such.
Watch it pop a nw jump of 50 miles with this LOL. Heck it came 150 miles since yesterday. Monday it had zilch, zero when I was writing about this with the NAM picking this out.

by **aiannone** Wed Jan 19, 2022 1:03 pm

WOW on the cold for tmw night according to 12z HRRR

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 13 Hrrr_t10

by Fededle22 Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:08 pm

Do we have a time frame for when the snow will begin and end for tomorrow's storm?

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:15 pm

Fededle22 wrote:Do we have a time frame for when the snow will begin and end for tomorrow's storm?

Precip moves in around 2-3am. Should end by Noon-1pm

by **aiannone** Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:45 pm

Winter Weather Advisory from THU 5:00 AM EST until THU 1:00 PM EST
1 of 2
Action Recommended
Execute a pre-planned activity identified in the instructions
Issued By
New York City - NY, US, National Weather Service
Affected Area
Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New York
Description
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY...

WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to two inches.

WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

WHEN...From 5 AM to 1 PM EST Thursday.

IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute.

by **heehaw453** Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:59 pm

GFS is fairly consistent. Seems to have the hot hand these days...

Some folks in CNJ on colder surfaces will probably get 4" out of this.

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 13 Gfs56

by **billg315** Wed Jan 19, 2022 6:30 pm

Actually pretty good agreement of the models for the event tomorrow A.M. Slight differences in how much snow (1" on the low-end, 3 or 4" on the high-end). I think that part of the problem for more significant accumulation is that the temps will just be dropping as the changeover occurs and may even be above freezing initially. After a warm day today, I just think we will lose some of the initial snowfall to the warm ground unless the rates get pretty heavy. That's why I'm more in the 1-2" camp. I think we may have 3-4" falling from the sky start to finish, but I think we'll lose some of that accumulation to warm ground early (especially on roadways where traffic will be picking up before or during the changeover also making accumulations challenging.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 19, 2022 8:53 pm

00z HRRR

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 13 Image-png-65a46c400eff9747810fca2ec045e014

by **amugs** Wed Jan 19, 2022 8:55 pm

by **lglickman1** Wed Jan 19, 2022 10:40 pm

Still in the mid-40s here, hopefully some snow falls after the temp drops

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Jan 20, 2022 1:53 am

amugs wrote:

Every short range model I looked at tonight has one inch imby, anything over that will be unexpected but received with open arms.

by **2004blackwrx** Thu Jan 20, 2022 2:35 am

butt thermometer says it feels like it is getting warmer.

by **weatherwatchermom** Thu Jan 20, 2022 5:07 am

Where is the snow??

by **dkodgis** Thu Jan 20, 2022 5:14 am

37, drizzling. Temps may drop to 32-28 degrees from 7 am to 10 am here. That may give me a couple of hours of white stuff. For sure temps are going to drop today into Fri morning. Look at the temps in the next week. Will be cold enough for snow.

by **docstox12** Thu Jan 20, 2022 6:05 am

37 degrees, cloudy no precip ATM.Looks like a bust up here for NWS forecast of one inch.

by **heehaw453** Thu Jan 20, 2022 6:46 am

NW of I95 it's snowing as the mid-levels have gone below freezing. The entire column has not cooled fast enough though. My guess is C-1" as I do think surface will go below freezing while there is still precip. Those SE of I95 probably going to be tough to accumulate much of anything.

Dark purple line is wet bulb freezing line

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 13 Surfac22

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 20, 2022 7:06 am

By the time it cools down and changes to snow along the coast might not be lots of precip left.

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