January 2022 Obs & Discussions

NAM conts to come in more amped for Thursday.

There is also a dual jet streak structure that could create enhanced vertical motion and some short term meso banding that enhances totals for some areas. The JS to the NE is weak but the area is in the R rear quad. But the JS to the SE is a tad stronger and our area is ion the L front Qaud. Again some sneaky-ness afoot with this IMHO

sroc4 wrote:NAM conts to come in more amped for Thursday.

It looked more amped at 500 but the snowfall totals not reflecting. Either way my same ideas hold

Going with a C-2" Thursday morning across the tri-state. Obviously N&W will see better stickage and accumulation, possibly isolated 3-4" amounts.

Great points made by my man Billy.
HRRR did so much better with the last storm that any other model with teh LLC and position of the ULL and SLP. Could be right again? Time will tell.

HRRR is a bit more enthusiastic than global's, gotta watch for strength of 500mb cyclonic vort riding this frontal boundary pic.twitter.com/yTW7P8u6p3

— NsfwWx (@NsfwWx) January 18, 2022

GSF comes in about the same.

Frank_Wx wrote:Going with a C-2" Thursday morning across the tri-state. Obviously N&W will see better stickage and accumulation, possibly isolated 3-4" amounts.

Good morning have not been paying attention do you have an idea is this an overnight start?

weatherwatchermom wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Going with a C-2" Thursday morning across the tri-state. Obviously N&W will see better stickage and accumulation, possibly isolated 3-4" amounts.

Good morning have not been paying attention do you have an idea is this an overnight start?

Midnight-2/3am start time

sroc4 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Going with a C-2" Thursday morning across the tri-state. Obviously N&W will see better stickage and accumulation, possibly isolated 3-4" amounts.

Good morning have not been paying attention do you have an idea is this an overnight start?

Midnight-2/3am start time

thank you!

From weatherwiz wx. He shows the the frontogenesis in the red area and believes it will help enhance the snowfall to the 2-4" range in this region. We'll see.

amugs wrote:

From weatherwiz wx. He shows the the frontogenesis in the red area and believes it will help enhance the snowfall to the 2-4" range in this region. We'll see.

If a >3” snowfall does happen I think it’s in this outlined area not including NYC, LI, CNJ and SEPA

NAM is robust.  This may turn into a moderate event...

NAMMMMM!!!! That is all.
Here may in lie the issue we get a more robust storm Thursday we kick Saturday South from CNJ N it might seem. Heights may not have enough time to recoup UNLESS it delays to Sunday. Just an observation.

But DO - delayed openings and possible closings at play.
Got to love the ones that were not on the radar but found under the pile.

Pretty Juicy for 3K NAM.

Ya'll concentrated on Saturday with a fickle switch and this is what will bring ubsome goods. 2-4" plus possible as HRRR gives us about 6 hours of moderate snows. Globals sucks at Mesos Anafront systems. Ride the SR mesos

HRRR 00Z

hyde345 wrote:HRRR 00Z

Looks like ill see 2-4 here in CT will look awesome from the 28th floor at mohegan sun!

Take a look at 06z 3km NAM, last 3 runs have trended further and further south and now it starts as rain for all and maybe a coating to an inch, 2-4 does not look like its happening N/W of NYC in face they see little to nothing. Things just do not want to work in our favor this year sheesh.

15 degrees this morning. The red probability percentages are a thing of beauty.

17 degrees here Damian. Calm winds, partly cloudy.
Maybe 2 inches for tonight and tomorrow.Looks like the weekend storm ATM is a done deal.

docstox12 wrote:17 degrees here Damian. Calm winds, partly cloudy.
Maybe 2 inches for tonight and tomorrow.Looks like the weekend storm ATM is a done deal.

Sounds about right Doc. A couple of the short range models have us at 3-4 inches which we'd take for the win if it ever happened with this system.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

docstox12 wrote:17 degrees here Damian. Calm winds, partly cloudy.
Maybe 2 inches for tonight and tomorrow.Looks like the weekend storm ATM is a done deal.

Sounds about right Doc. A couple of the short range models have us at 3-4 inches which we'd take for the win if it ever happened with this system.

Whatever we get CP will be a nice snowpack freshener before we turn much colder.Get your snowpack days counter up and running my good man!

17* for my low and looks to be a couple of inches of white gold for tomorrow morning at best. Models have trended drier as the norm so far this season. We'll see what our SR guidance says today if they juice it up.
Saturday storm is gone, its in Va Beach even DC seems to get skunked, WTH? Va Beach the snow snow capitol of the EC?? Please dont say well they deserve it yada yada yada.

Here is a GIF of the NAM - gonna be a messy commute. Delayed opening are possible in CNJ & NNJ if this verifies.

NWS upped tehir total from 1" yesterday to........1.9-2" - how about that for a spread LOL. Better than nothing!

IF it verifies it woudl be a nice little event.

12z NAM is not cooling fast enough which causes the coast to start as rain before changing to snow later Thursday morning. That is going to cut down on the totals there, but N&W should stay all snow.

We are still anticipating a period of snow during the Thursday AM commute with light accumulations in the NYC Metro and surrounding areas. Roads are likely to be very slick, with temperatures dropping quickly right before the snow begins. pic.twitter.com/LkSUmEsz25

— New York Metro Weather (@nymetrowx) January 19, 2022

BOOK it Dan O! - remember that show my fellow AARers?
HREF is a great SR compilation tool