January 2022 Obs & Discussions

SENJsnowman wrote:Ok, so maybe premature on the thread talk until more of this forum area is in a real high impact zone.

BUT, for our southern friends (Monmouth County south) the latest Mt Holly discussion is very enticing:

"Colder air will be rushing into the region tonight. Temperatures
will fall through the night, eventually near to below freezing
across the entire area. Steady precipitation should begin to move in
during the middle to latter portion of the night, starting to the
southwest. Initially, temperatures will probably remain warm enough
for it to begin as rain across the southern zones. With time,
continued infiltration of cold air and increasing precipitation
intensity should support a flip to snow. Several hours of moderate
to potentially heavy snow are then likely from early Monday morning
into Monday afternoon. Snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour or greater
at times will be possible in the Winter Storm Watch area. As the
wave of low pressure pulls away, snow should end during the late
afternoon or evening hours, from southwest to northeast.

Regarding amounts, antecedent warm conditions and the warm ground
are certainly a consideration, and snow ratios will likely be well
below 10:1 at least at first. However, during the more intense
period of snow, the warm ground could easily be overwhelmed. A multi-
cycle model QPF blend and snow ratio blend yielded a swath of 4 to 6
inches of snow, locally a little higher, across our southern zones.
There is likely to be a sharp cutoff to the north due to very dry
air invading along with the cold. The cutoff to the north will
probably be sharper than currently forecast. Should the northern
trend continue even more, it`s even possible mixing with rain could
become a factor across the south, and that the higher snow amounts
could shift further north.

Hard to overstate how high the uncertainty remains with this system
due to how quickly the forecast is evolving. Looking at some of the
initial 02.06z runs, it`s possible areas well north of the watch
could also be in play for significant snow, even approaching metro
Philly. And it`s possible current forecast maximum amounts could be
considerably too low, and they will be if the overnight guidance is
correct. But definitely did not want to jerk the forecast all the
way in that direction at once; the current forecast already
constitutes a major change. Once again, continue to closely monitor
the forecast today."

I suppose some of that last talk would have a big impact on CNJ and NYC if it were to happen.