Re: January 2022 Obs & Discussions

by **heehaw453** Sun Jan 16, 2022 9:51 am

1.2/-3.2 was the low this morning. That's impressive cold.

by **SENJsnowman** Mon Jan 17, 2022 8:29 am

Currently SB on 95 approaching Washington DC. 36* and lightly snowing. About 1” otg

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by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 17, 2022 8:38 am

Like Frank has in the scroll Thursday could be sneaky. If we can get the baroclinic zone to stall and get a wave riding it then it could produce a moderate snow at best. Seen that scenario blow up as we get closer to the time frame.

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 17, 2022 9:54 am

heehaw453 wrote:Like Frank has in the scroll Thursday could be sneaky. If we can get the baroclinic zone to stall and get a wave riding it then it could produce a moderate snow at best. Seen that scenario blow up as we get closer to the time frame.

100%. Beat me to it. NAM shows stronger Vort along the southern fringe of the boundary. Often times like under modeling of CAD, the true details of baroclinically driven/enhanced vertical motion can be underrepresented until in tight and by the hi res models. Def need to monitor

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:45 am

12z NAM valid Thursday late morning/early PM

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January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_50

by **aiannone** Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:59 am

Frank_Wx wrote:12z NAM valid Thursday late morning/early PM

12Z GFS looks to be following suit with the NAM

by **amugs** Mon Jan 17, 2022 11:17 am

Thursday peeps per NAM

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by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 17, 2022 11:27 am

aiannone wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:12z NAM valid Thursday late morning/early PM

12Z GFS looks to be following suit with the NAM

Not quite as robust.

Safe bet forecast is C-1" right now with potential of a 2-4" event if the WAA trends stronger.

by **amugs** Mon Jan 17, 2022 11:33 am

This is what we need to see:
January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 11 FJUTnEQWYAYOF6e?format=jpg&name=large

A more amplification of the Shortwave along teh front - good jet streak as well to enhance lift - these are the storms that overperform with dynamics of the jet streak to enhance teh frontogenesis.

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 17, 2022 3:42 pm

The NAM continues to like the threat for Wednesday night/Thursday morning. It shows a very well placed baroclinic zone and some s/w energy riding the boundary. Most models show something similar, but the s/w is most robust on the NAM. So every now and then the NAM sniffs something out early and stays with it right to game time. Not saying that will happen with this, but every now and then it just gets to the party early.

by **amugs** Mon Jan 17, 2022 4:21 pm

by **lglickman1** Mon Jan 17, 2022 4:48 pm

Flurries here in new rochelle

by **amugs** Mon Jan 17, 2022 5:20 pm

Sleet pellets and flurries here now at 34 blustery degrees

by **amugs** Mon Jan 17, 2022 5:27 pm

GFS bringing in some goods now. I will say this that the GFS upgrade is not as wild with its swi g run to run overall lately. But step up process. Took a step towards the NAM.

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January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 11 C9DC5F97-CD69-4F0B-8698-15305C8C0DEB.png.8b811d35d4684ecce2e91c9587c582d7

by **amugs** Mon Jan 17, 2022 8:54 pm

Icy out there. Just came around and salted roads.

Thursday maybe interesting here peeps.
Purple circle is where the project wave and boundary meet and snow breaks out Thursday morning.

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by **amugs** Mon Jan 17, 2022 9:37 pm

NAM up the ante here peeps. Within 60 hrs.

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 11 913339083_trend-nam-2022011800-f060.ref1km_ptype.us_ne(1).gif.82136999d6e9a7fd6c92517a111db0dc

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by **sroc4** Mon Jan 17, 2022 9:55 pm

Sneaky sneaky

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by **amugs** Mon Jan 17, 2022 10:08 pm

Appetizer to the second course? NAM saying so to EURO. Time will tell but very interesting.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 17, 2022 11:18 pm

GFS and ensembles growing more aggressive for accumulating snow Thursday. I’m feeling pretty good about a 1-3” event right now, with good chance of seeing more if trends keep going this way.

by **sroc4** Tue Jan 18, 2022 7:00 am

All models are on board with this now to a certain degree.

1-3” sounds about right to me

by **docstox12** Tue Jan 18, 2022 7:10 am

sroc4 wrote:All models are on board with this now to a certain degree.

1-3” sounds about right to me

Nice snowpack freshener for us Northern Folk.

28 degrees. breezy and clear.

by **amugs** Tue Jan 18, 2022 7:48 am

NAM lead the way here.
Rain to snow temps go from 34 to 27 in a 3 hour span as per NAM Thursday morning. Could be a dicey morning commute.

by **sroc4** Tue Jan 18, 2022 7:50 am

docstox12 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:All models are on board with this now to a certain degree.

1-3” sounds about right to me

Nice snowpack freshener for us Northern Folk.

28 degrees. breezy and clear.

And for us coastal folks some nice dry kindling to get going so perhaps the nice seasoned oak will catch for this weekend.

by **docstox12** Tue Jan 18, 2022 8:17 am

sroc4 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:All models are on board with this now to a certain degree.

1-3” sounds about right to me

Nice snowpack freshener for us Northern Folk.

28 degrees. breezy and clear.

And for us coastal folks some nice dry kindling to get going so perhaps the nice seasoned oak will catch for this weekend.

Seasoned oak, such a great firewood! Enjoy it Doc.Looks like we all cash in for some snow Thursday am.

Sun out, breezy and it's winter!

by **SENJsnowman** Tue Jan 18, 2022 8:38 am

sroc4 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:All models are on board with this now to a certain degree.

1-3” sounds about right to me

Nice snowpack freshener for us Northern Folk.

28 degrees. breezy and clear.

And for us coastal folks some nice dry kindling to get going so perhaps the nice seasoned oak will catch for this weekend.

Took me a few times, but I finally caught the meaning here! Lol

I’ll be driving back from Florida Thursday am, so hopefully I’ll have a little winter landscape when I pull up.

by **sroc4** Tue Jan 18, 2022 9:28 am

NAM conts to come in more amped for Thursday.

by **sroc4** Tue Jan 18, 2022 9:33 am

There is also a dual jet streak structure that could create enhanced vertical motion and some short term meso banding that enhances totals for some areas. The JS to the NE is weak but the area is in the R rear quad. But the JS to the SE is a tad stronger and our area is ion the L front Qaud. Again some sneaky-ness afoot with this IMHO

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January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Namconus_uv250_us_40

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