January 2022 Obs & Discussions
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38 posters
Page 11 of 19
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Re: January 2022 Obs & Discussions
1.2/-3.2 was the low this morning. That's impressive cold.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 2022 Obs & Discussions
Like Frank has in the scroll Thursday could be sneaky. If we can get the baroclinic zone to stall and get a wave riding it then it could produce a moderate snow at best. Seen that scenario blow up as we get closer to the time frame.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 2022 Obs & Discussions
heehaw453 wrote:Like Frank has in the scroll Thursday could be sneaky. If we can get the baroclinic zone to stall and get a wave riding it then it could produce a moderate snow at best. Seen that scenario blow up as we get closer to the time frame.
100%. Beat me to it. NAM shows stronger Vort along the southern fringe of the boundary. Often times like under modeling of CAD, the true details of baroclinically driven/enhanced vertical motion can be underrepresented until in tight and by the hi res models. Def need to monitor
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: January 2022 Obs & Discussions
12z NAM valid Thursday late morning/early PM
![January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_49](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2022011712/namconus_ref_frzn_neus_49.png)
![January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_50](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2022011712/namconus_ref_frzn_neus_50.png)
![January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_49](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2022011712/namconus_ref_frzn_neus_49.png)
![January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_50](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2022011712/namconus_ref_frzn_neus_50.png)
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Re: January 2022 Obs & Discussions
Frank_Wx wrote:12z NAM valid Thursday late morning/early PM
12Z GFS looks to be following suit with the NAM
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 2022 Obs & Discussions
Thursday peeps per NAM
![January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Ref1km_ptype.us_ma](https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2022011712/075/ref1km_ptype.us_ma.png)
![January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Ref1km_ptype.us_ma](https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2022011712/075/ref1km_ptype.us_ma.png)
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 2022 Obs & Discussions
aiannone wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:12z NAM valid Thursday late morning/early PM
12Z GFS looks to be following suit with the NAM
Not quite as robust.
Safe bet forecast is C-1" right now with potential of a 2-4" event if the WAA trends stronger.
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Re: January 2022 Obs & Discussions
This is what we need to see:
A more amplification of the Shortwave along teh front - good jet streak as well to enhance lift - these are the storms that overperform with dynamics of the jet streak to enhance teh frontogenesis.
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 2022 Obs & Discussions
The NAM continues to like the threat for Wednesday night/Thursday morning. It shows a very well placed baroclinic zone and some s/w energy riding the boundary. Most models show something similar, but the s/w is most robust on the NAM. So every now and then the NAM sniffs something out early and stays with it right to game time. Not saying that will happen with this, but every now and then it just gets to the party early.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 2022 Obs & Discussions
NAM
![January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 11 847364316_ref1km_ptype.us_ne(3).png.fead8f675e037fae0afa9036949ed2ba](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2022_01/847364316_ref1km_ptype.us_ne(3).png.fead8f675e037fae0afa9036949ed2ba.png)
![January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 11 1038662542_ref1km_ptype.us_ne(4).png.8f613e3683b1f0707751449e250eb5d2](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2022_01/1038662542_ref1km_ptype.us_ne(4).png.8f613e3683b1f0707751449e250eb5d2.png)
![January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 11 847364316_ref1km_ptype.us_ne(3).png.fead8f675e037fae0afa9036949ed2ba](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2022_01/847364316_ref1km_ptype.us_ne(3).png.fead8f675e037fae0afa9036949ed2ba.png)
![January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 11 1038662542_ref1km_ptype.us_ne(4).png.8f613e3683b1f0707751449e250eb5d2](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2022_01/1038662542_ref1km_ptype.us_ne(4).png.8f613e3683b1f0707751449e250eb5d2.png)
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 2022 Obs & Discussions
Flurries here in new rochelle
lglickman1- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: January 2022 Obs & Discussions
Sleet pellets and flurries here now at 34 blustery degrees
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 2022 Obs & Discussions
GFS bringing in some goods now. I will say this that the GFS upgrade is not as wild with its swi g run to run overall lately. But step up process. Took a step towards the NAM.
![January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 11 C9DC5F97-CD69-4F0B-8698-15305C8C0DEB.png.8b811d35d4684ecce2e91c9587c582d7](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2022_01/C9DC5F97-CD69-4F0B-8698-15305C8C0DEB.png.8b811d35d4684ecce2e91c9587c582d7.png)
![January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 11 C9DC5F97-CD69-4F0B-8698-15305C8C0DEB.png.8b811d35d4684ecce2e91c9587c582d7](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2022_01/C9DC5F97-CD69-4F0B-8698-15305C8C0DEB.png.8b811d35d4684ecce2e91c9587c582d7.png)
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 2022 Obs & Discussions
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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jmanley32 likes this post
Re: January 2022 Obs & Discussions
NAM up the ante here peeps. Within 60 hrs.
![January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 11 913339083_trend-nam-2022011800-f060.ref1km_ptype.us_ne(1).gif.82136999d6e9a7fd6c92517a111db0dc](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2022_01/913339083_trend-nam-2022011800-f060.ref1km_ptype.us_ne(1).gif.82136999d6e9a7fd6c92517a111db0dc.gif)
![January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 11 913339083_trend-nam-2022011800-f060.ref1km_ptype.us_ne(1).gif.82136999d6e9a7fd6c92517a111db0dc](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2022_01/913339083_trend-nam-2022011800-f060.ref1km_ptype.us_ne(1).gif.82136999d6e9a7fd6c92517a111db0dc.gif)
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 2022 Obs & Discussions
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: January 2022 Obs & Discussions
Appetizer to the second course? NAM saying so to EURO. Time will tell but very interesting.
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 2022 Obs & Discussions
GFS and ensembles growing more aggressive for accumulating snow Thursday. I’m feeling pretty good about a 1-3” event right now, with good chance of seeing more if trends keep going this way.
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Re: January 2022 Obs & Discussions
All models are on board with this now to a certain degree.
1-3” sounds about right to me
1-3” sounds about right to me
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: January 2022 Obs & Discussions
sroc4 wrote:All models are on board with this now to a certain degree.
1-3” sounds about right to me
Nice snowpack freshener for us Northern Folk.
28 degrees. breezy and clear.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: January 2022 Obs & Discussions
NAM lead the way here.
Rain to snow temps go from 34 to 27 in a 3 hour span as per NAM Thursday morning. Could be a dicey morning commute.
Rain to snow temps go from 34 to 27 in a 3 hour span as per NAM Thursday morning. Could be a dicey morning commute.
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: January 2022 Obs & Discussions
docstox12 wrote:sroc4 wrote:All models are on board with this now to a certain degree.
1-3” sounds about right to me
Nice snowpack freshener for us Northern Folk.
28 degrees. breezy and clear.
And for us coastal folks some nice dry kindling to get going so perhaps the nice seasoned oak will catch for this weekend.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: January 2022 Obs & Discussions
sroc4 wrote:docstox12 wrote:sroc4 wrote:All models are on board with this now to a certain degree.
1-3” sounds about right to me
Nice snowpack freshener for us Northern Folk.
28 degrees. breezy and clear.
And for us coastal folks some nice dry kindling to get going so perhaps the nice seasoned oak will catch for this weekend.
Seasoned oak, such a great firewood! Enjoy it Doc.Looks like we all cash in for some snow Thursday am.
Sun out, breezy and it's winter!
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: January 2022 Obs & Discussions
sroc4 wrote:docstox12 wrote:sroc4 wrote:All models are on board with this now to a certain degree.
1-3” sounds about right to me
Nice snowpack freshener for us Northern Folk.
28 degrees. breezy and clear.
And for us coastal folks some nice dry kindling to get going so perhaps the nice seasoned oak will catch for this weekend.
Took me a few times, but I finally caught the meaning here! Lol
I’ll be driving back from Florida Thursday am, so hopefully I’ll have a little winter landscape when I pull up.
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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sroc4 likes this post
Re: January 2022 Obs & Discussions
NAM conts to come in more amped for Thursday.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: January 2022 Obs & Discussions
There is also a dual jet streak structure that could create enhanced vertical motion and some short term meso banding that enhances totals for some areas. The JS to the NE is weak but the area is in the R rear quad. But the JS to the SE is a tad stronger and our area is ion the L front Qaud. Again some sneaky-ness afoot with this IMHO
![January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Namconus_uv250_us_40](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2022011812/namconus_uv250_us_40.png)
![January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 11 Namconus_uv250_us_40](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2022011812/namconus_uv250_us_40.png)
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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