JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
![JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 19 2135014360_18zHRRR!.png.3f655b050760a1834cde56808062bb13](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2022_01/2135014360_18zHRRR!.png.3f655b050760a1834cde56808062bb13.png)
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
In my mind those "insane totals" were just that "insane totals" - I get what models were/are saying but did anyone really think we were ever going to get full blown everyone on this forum 24"-36" totals area wide? I think that is just unrealistic from the start...but that's just my 2 cents. I could be wrong
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
Oh no you mistook my statement, i know they were not going to happen but I did not think it would go from frankzilla to roidzilla to maybe godzilla maybe not. It is all going to be about ratios, if we do not get good ratios this is going to be a big dissapointment for most except LI and southern jersey.bloc1357 wrote:
In my mind those "insane totals" were just that "insane totals" - I get what models were/are saying but did anyone really think we were ever going to get full blown everyone on this forum 24"-36" totals area wide? I think that is just unrealistic from the start...but that's just my 2 cents. I could be wrong
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
phil155 wrote:amugs wrote:rb924119 wrote:bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:rb924119 wrote:We should be close to initiating the phasing process. Certainly within the next hour or two max based on what I’m seeing on satellite..
Is that still a bit early in your calculations? Or about right versus the models?
Significantly early, in my opinion.
Let's GOOOOOO THEN!!!
Would this make a more NW track more likely and thus likely higher snow totals into NJ and the I95
Yes, if correct.
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
![JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 19 Image.png.282d17f0461f3ab5ae1a989cfd1b7345](https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2022_01/image.png.282d17f0461f3ab5ae1a989cfd1b7345.png)
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
amugs wrote:Earlier deepening - let see what it can do upstream
It’s funny you posted this, because I’ve been waiting for the non-opaque SPC map to come out - im pretty sure we are in the process of phasing, but it’s hard to see lol
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
what step do we want to have happen 3 hrs earlier that Frank was talking about and with these earlier nowcast observations will that allow for it to happen?rb924119 wrote:amugs wrote:Earlier deepening - let see what it can do upstream
It’s funny you posted this, because I’ve been waiting for the non-opaque SPC map to come out - im pretty sure we are in the process of phasing, but it’s hard to see lol
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
Longtime lurker (from when you guys were tracking Sandy I believe). Just wanted to pop in and say thanks, I check these for all the storms coming. I'm down in Little Egg, and I'll post here and there once we start.
Hope everyone gets that white gold!
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
TRACKING THE DEFORMATION ZONE..
— Mike Masco (@MikeMasco) January 28, 2022
The HRRR is what I will following before and after the "Phase" As it stands now, the intense upward motion will run over NJ moving towards the CT River Valley.. There is a "dry slot" concern for RI/Cape Cod that will need to be watch. pic.twitter.com/ajZerU3lvL
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
Spacemanspiff99 wrote:Hello guys,
Longtime lurker (from when you guys were tracking Sandy I believe). Just wanted to pop in and say thanks, I check these for all the storms coming. I'm down in Little Egg, and I'll post here and there once we start.
Hope everyone gets that white gold!
Long live Calvin
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
jmanley32 wrote:what step do we want to have happen 3 hrs earlier that Frank was talking about and with these earlier nowcast observations will that allow for it to happen?rb924119 wrote:amugs wrote:Earlier deepening - let see what it can do upstream
It’s funny you posted this, because I’ve been waiting for the non-opaque SPC map to come out - im pretty sure we are in the process of phasing, but it’s hard to see lol
We want the 500MB ULL to close off earlier like down by OC MD would be great if not a tick further S. This would allow the SLP to get more west and bring the deform bands/CCB over the entire region - heaviest axis of snow.
Last edited by amugs on Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:57 pm; edited 1 time in total
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
jmanley32 wrote:what step do we want to have happen 3 hrs earlier that Frank was talking about and with these earlier nowcast observations will that allow for it to happen?rb924119 wrote:amugs wrote:Earlier deepening - let see what it can do upstream
It’s funny you posted this, because I’ve been waiting for the non-opaque SPC map to come out - im pretty sure we are in the process of phasing, but it’s hard to see lol
We want this to close off early. Earlier maturation/phasing would help us achieve this.
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
Spacemanspiff99 wrote:Hello guys,
Longtime lurker (from when you guys were tracking Sandy I believe). Just wanted to pop in and say thanks, I check these for all the storms coming. I'm down in Little Egg, and I'll post here and there once we start.
Hope everyone gets that white gold!
And then there were three from south Jersey!! Welcome, Spaceman!!
Last edited by rb924119 on Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:59 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
amugs wrote:Very interesting points made hereTRACKING THE DEFORMATION ZONE..
— Mike Masco (@MikeMasco) January 28, 2022
The HRRR is what I will following before and after the "Phase" As it stands now, the intense upward motion will run over NJ moving towards the CT River Valley.. There is a "dry slot" concern for RI/Cape Cod that will need to be watch. pic.twitter.com/ajZerU3lvL
Damn....if you watch that clip LI gets clobbered with that band!
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
I just saw the post about HRRR deformation and that dark area goes right over me with plenty of room for error to east and west, no I am not jumping anywhere. Hopefully for joy at some pt. Working still, and had deal with crisis, a client of mine withnessed the student from new rochelle high school shortly after getting shot along with her 7 and 9 yo. sorry i know banter. I will be fully engaged after 5 or 6.dsix85 wrote:Hopefully jman didn't jump off the Driscoll Bridge yet and read this good update.
Last edited by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 28, 2022 3:09 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
aiannone wrote:
West you mean?
Basically I mean I don't think it's going to get worse than 12Z delineated based on this. Hopefully better.
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
NYC west may get clobbered by that deformation banddsix85 wrote:Is it fair to say where the heaviest axis of snow sets up you can put out 4"/hr rates?
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