JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
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rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
NYC west may get clobbered by that deformation banddsix85 wrote:Is it fair to say where the heaviest axis of snow sets up you can put out 4"/hr rates?
emokid51783- Posts : 144
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
rb924119 wrote:Phasing process underway, as seen by the merger of the two wind fields at the base of the trough (circled in red). Note your highest wind speeds (purple) downstream of the trough axis. Those speeds have notably increased since two hours ago. The fuse it lit, folks.
Any reason to think it will close off earlier than modeled based in this? It seemed it took forever to do so on all the models till after it was too late
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CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
This is 500mb vorticity energy. Basically that ragged circle below LI is not well consolidated for that longitude/latitude. I'd like to see that type of representation right off OC MD. I think we may just be an hour or two too late on this consolidation.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
Emo brother! JC might end up getting the goods with the early phase!emokid51783 wrote:NYC west may get clobbered by that deformation banddsix85 wrote:Is it fair to say where the heaviest axis of snow sets up you can put out 4"/hr rates?
dsix85- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
emokid51783 wrote:NYC west may get clobbered by that deformation banddsix85 wrote:Is it fair to say where the heaviest axis of snow sets up you can put out 4"/hr rates?
Eastern half of NJ, NY and especially LI look to to get hit with that band if that works out as depicted
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
lglickman1 wrote:rb924119 wrote:Phasing process underway, as seen by the merger of the two wind fields at the base of the trough (circled in red). Note your highest wind speeds (purple) downstream of the trough axis. Those speeds have notably increased since two hours ago. The fuse it lit, folks.
Any reason to think it will close off earlier than modeled based in this? It seemed it took forever to do so on all the models till after it was too late
Yes, for this reason (in my opinion). The trough is maturing faster than modeled, again, in my opinion.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
Models in general for me are just noise. Guidance will shift left or right up until the storm starts. I am not of the habit to change a forecast with each model suite unless there are wholesale changes.
— NY NJ PA Weather (@nynjpaweather) January 28, 2022
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
rb924119 wrote:lglickman1 wrote:rb924119 wrote:Phasing process underway, as seen by the merger of the two wind fields at the base of the trough (circled in red). Note your highest wind speeds (purple) downstream of the trough axis. Those speeds have notably increased since two hours ago. The fuse it lit, folks.
Any reason to think it will close off earlier than modeled based in this? It seemed it took forever to do so on all the models till after it was too late
Yes, for this reason (in my opinion). The trough is maturing faster than modeled, again, in my opinion.
RB. Thanks. Do you realize how many people are hanging onto every one of your statements. Rooting big time for early close off
![:sweat: 😓](https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/emojione/assets/png/1f613.png?v=2.2.7)
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
heehaw453 wrote:He's 100% right, but if you see guidance not back off the late close at 00Z ignore that at your own disappointment. I saw him fiercely defend his forecast during Juno as it was clear as day it was too far east for NJ.Models in general for me are just noise. Guidance will shift left or right up until the storm starts. I am not of the habit to change a forecast with each model suite unless there are wholesale changes.
— NY NJ PA Weather (@nynjpaweather) January 28, 2022
Ive seem him cling onto initial forecasts (snow and hurricanes) more than once when he clearly was not correct
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
Blizzard Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
331 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
CTZ008-012-NYZ079-081-291000-
/O.CON.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.220129T0000Z-220130T0000Z/
Northern New London-Southern New London-Northeast Suffolk-
Southeast Suffolk-
331 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022
...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations
of 13 to 17 inches. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph.
* WHERE...In Connecticut, Northern New London and Southern New
London Counties. In New York, Southeast Suffolk and Northeast
Suffolk Counties.
* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. Strong
winds could cause tree damage.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Blizzard conditions are expected Saturday
morning into early Saturday afternoon. White out conditions are
likely at times.
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
I am going to trust my instincts here and go by what many have been saying: models are struggling and current observations are painting a more impactful storm. This is my final call snow map.
![JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 20 01-28-Final-Call](https://i.postimg.cc/gct251ZV/01-28-Final-Call.png)
Main differences from my 1st call:
*18"+ zone shrunk
*12-18" zone expanded more west thru Long Island and down the Jersey Shore
*6-12 instead of 8-12 to account for potential cut-off's WNW of heaviest snow axis
Speaking, below is a look at where the EURO and NAM show 700mb lift and heavier snow rates.
The EURO keeps the best lift across east end of LI into southeastern New England.
![JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 20 Ecmwf_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_9](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2022012812/ecmwf_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_9.png)
![JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 20 Ecmwf_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_10](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2022012812/ecmwf_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_10.png)
The NAM is quite similar, as the 700mb low passes east of Long Island.
![JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II - Page 20 Namconus_z700_vort_neus_24](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2022012818/namconus_z700_vort_neus_24.png)
A very difficult forecast that is guaranteed to bust in some places. We are past the point of model watching and in nowcast mode. However, I will be curious to see the 00z NAM tonight and see if it latches onto a last minute west trend, as is my belief.
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
This observation also seems consistent with RB’s sentiments to watch what is happening now. At least hoping this is good. We shall see.
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Re: JAN 29th 2022 “Heart Ache” Nor’easter Part II
yeah but if this follows those isobars on the map posted above it may not matter and still take a far right.Grselig wrote:
This observation also seems consistent with RB’s sentiments to watch what is happening now. At least hoping this is good. We shall see.
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