Tropics
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27 posters
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Tropics
We'll see if it verifies this strong, but that would be quite a Rex Block the Euro is showing at Day 9. Might have to watch for hybrid development off the East Coast. Also, let's get that kind of Appalachian ridging out of our system before August, please. pic.twitter.com/aGLEK5WcdP
— Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton) May 3, 2022
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Tropics
Showing up after a Summer Surge that is tank top and short weather!!!
![Tropics Gfs_ensemble_all_avg_nhemi_z500_anom_5day_2594400](https://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/gfs_ensemble_all_avg_nhemi_z500_anom_5day_2594400.png)
That is a cyclone vorticity over the SE HotLantic
![Tropics Gfs_ensemble_all_avg_nhemi_z500_anom_5day_2594400](https://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/gfs_ensemble_all_avg_nhemi_z500_anom_5day_2594400.png)
That is a cyclone vorticity over the SE HotLantic
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Tropics
Going to be an active year. But then again, most years are these days given the current macro cycle we are in: Nina base-state and + AMO. It will change eventually, just not sure when.
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tropics
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Tropics
I want to know how Costa Rica looks Jun 27-Jul 5 for weather as in…the “H” word. I have business down there. I am wobdering if any severe weather events are on the horizon
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tropics
We may have a legit tropical threat to watch as we get into Week 2 of July. Requires deeper analysis, but there’s a red flag there for me. It wouldn’t be a classical long-track Atlantic Basin storm, or even one that comes out of the Caribbean. Instead, it would likely originate from a mid-latitude shortwave that dives southeastward through the Eastern CONUS then balls up beneath the advertised blocking/ridge over troubled waters, rapidly feeds back in the favorable synoptic environment, and then retrogrades as it transitions to a tropical entity.
Again, this requires further analysis, but I WILL be looking into this because I think this threat might have legs….
Again, this requires further analysis, but I WILL be looking into this because I think this threat might have legs….
rb924119- Meteorologist
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sroc4 likes this post
Re: Tropics
rb924119 wrote:We may have a legit tropical threat to watch as we get into Week 2 of July. Requires deeper analysis, but there’s a red flag there for me. It wouldn’t be a classical long-track Atlantic Basin storm, or even one that comes out of the Caribbean. Instead, it would likely originate from a mid-latitude shortwave that dives southeastward through the Eastern CONUS then balls up beneath the advertised blocking/ridge over troubled waters, rapidly feeds back in the favorable synoptic environment, and then retrogrades as it transitions to a tropical entity.
Again, this requires further analysis, but I WILL be looking into this because I think this threat might have legs….
RB thanks for posting...we leave Sat for our annual boat trip( 3 weeks on the water)..I said over the weekend to my husband I don't want to go south to Cape May hitting the shore towns ..the weather is not right this year and I don't feel comfortable being on ocean for 4 hours..Sandy hook to manasquan inlet..I don't have a good feeling this year.. I look today and I saw possible tropical occurrence..was going to post a question but got busy packing...we are headed up the Hudson...so please keep us posted.
![Very Happy](https://2img.net/i/fa/i/smiles/icon_biggrin.png)
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tropics
rb924119 wrote:We may have a legit tropical threat to watch as we get into Week 2 of July. Requires deeper analysis, but there’s a red flag there for me. It wouldn’t be a classical long-track Atlantic Basin storm, or even one that comes out of the Caribbean. Instead, it would likely originate from a mid-latitude shortwave that dives southeastward through the Eastern CONUS then balls up beneath the advertised blocking/ridge over troubled waters, rapidly feeds back in the favorable synoptic environment, and then retrogrades as it transitions to a tropical entity.
Again, this requires further analysis, but I WILL be looking into this because I think this threat might have legs….
I love it when your spidey senses start tingling. I hope is well my friend.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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rb924119 likes this post
Re: Tropics
![Tropics Two_atl_5d0](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png)
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Tropics
weatherwatchermom wrote:rb924119 wrote:We may have a legit tropical threat to watch as we get into Week 2 of July. Requires deeper analysis, but there’s a red flag there for me. It wouldn’t be a classical long-track Atlantic Basin storm, or even one that comes out of the Caribbean. Instead, it would likely originate from a mid-latitude shortwave that dives southeastward through the Eastern CONUS then balls up beneath the advertised blocking/ridge over troubled waters, rapidly feeds back in the favorable synoptic environment, and then retrogrades as it transitions to a tropical entity.
Again, this requires further analysis, but I WILL be looking into this because I think this threat might have legs….
RB thanks for posting...we leave Sat for our annual boat trip( 3 weeks on the water)..I said over the weekend to my husband I don't want to go south to Cape May hitting the shore towns ..the weather is not right this year and I don't feel comfortable being on ocean for 4 hours..Sandy hook to manasquan inlet..I don't have a good feeling this year.. I look today and I saw possible tropical occurrence..was going to post a question but got busy packing...we are headed up the Hudson...so please keep us posted.
That sounds fantastic!! I’m jealous haha I mean, it’s not like you’d be in the middle of the Atlantic with nowhere to go, but if you’re uncomfortable, you’re uncomfortable. No use in being nervous the whole time. But I will certainly provide updates as much as I can
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rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Tropics
sroc4 wrote:rb924119 wrote:We may have a legit tropical threat to watch as we get into Week 2 of July. Requires deeper analysis, but there’s a red flag there for me. It wouldn’t be a classical long-track Atlantic Basin storm, or even one that comes out of the Caribbean. Instead, it would likely originate from a mid-latitude shortwave that dives southeastward through the Eastern CONUS then balls up beneath the advertised blocking/ridge over troubled waters, rapidly feeds back in the favorable synoptic environment, and then retrogrades as it transitions to a tropical entity.
Again, this requires further analysis, but I WILL be looking into this because I think this threat might have legs….
I love it when your spidey senses start tingling. I hope is well my friend.
All is QUITE well…..big things happening on my end, and you’ll find out over the next few months
![Wink](https://2img.net/i/fa/i/smiles/icon_wink.gif)
Hope things are well for you too, brother!
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Tropics
sroc4 wrote:
Saw this, but I don’t think this has a DIRECT impact on our sensible weather, BUT IT MAY have secondary impacts with pattern realignment, especially if it takes off. One of the several variables that needs to be considered with the potential evolution, per usual lol I think this gets squashed into Gulf and impacts them, but it’s diabatic effects are what I’m much more concerned with, again, if it can really gain strength.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Tropics
I will be in Central America in two days. I will let you all know the weather. I think people will ask ¿Usted es el señor Doc? ![Very Happy](https://2img.net/i/fa/i/smiles/icon_biggrin.png)
![Very Happy](https://2img.net/i/fa/i/smiles/icon_biggrin.png)
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tropics
weatherwatchermom wrote:
RB thanks for posting...we leave Sat for our annual boat trip( 3 weeks on the water)..I said over the weekend to my husband I don't want to go south to Cape May hitting the shore towns ..the weather is not right this year and I don't feel comfortable being on ocean for 4 hours..Sandy hook to manasquan inlet..I don't have a good feeling this year.. I look today and I saw possible tropical occurrence..was going to post a question but got busy packing...we are headed up the Hudson...so please keep us posted.
Hey Joanne, let me know if you stop off between the GWB and the Tappan Zee Bridge(NOT the Mario Cuomo Bridge lol), I'll come by and say hi!
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Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Tropics
Tx RB..we have made the trip many times..from Sandy hook Manaquan inlet.its a long ride we are a trawler .so we go slow..lol and I just don't have a good feeling this year...so north we go..on 22 years of boating this is the first time I made my husband change our plans..rb924119 wrote:weatherwatchermom wrote:rb924119 wrote:We may have a legit tropical threat to watch as we get into Week 2 of July. Requires deeper analysis, but there’s a red flag there for me. It wouldn’t be a classical long-track Atlantic Basin storm, or even one that comes out of the Caribbean. Instead, it would likely originate from a mid-latitude shortwave that dives southeastward through the Eastern CONUS then balls up beneath the advertised blocking/ridge over troubled waters, rapidly feeds back in the favorable synoptic environment, and then retrogrades as it transitions to a tropical entity.
Again, this requires further analysis, but I WILL be looking into this because I think this threat might have legs….
RB thanks for posting...we leave Sat for our annual boat trip( 3 weeks on the water)..I said over the weekend to my husband I don't want to go south to Cape May hitting the shore towns ..the weather is not right this year and I don't feel comfortable being on ocean for 4 hours..Sandy hook to manasquan inlet..I don't have a good feeling this year.. I look today and I saw possible tropical occurrence..was going to post a question but got busy packing...we are headed up the Hudson...so please keep us posted.
That sounds fantastic!! I’m jealous haha I mean, it’s not like you’d be in the middle of the Atlantic with nowhere to go, but if you’re uncomfortable, you’re uncomfortable. No use in being nervous the whole time. But I will certainly provide updates as much as I can
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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rb924119 likes this post
Re: Tropics
on the way up we won't be but on way home we might stop in Tarrytown I will let you know..that would be fun...Dunnzoo wrote:weatherwatchermom wrote:
RB thanks for posting...we leave Sat for our annual boat trip( 3 weeks on the water)..I said over the weekend to my husband I don't want to go south to Cape May hitting the shore towns ..the weather is not right this year and I don't feel comfortable being on ocean for 4 hours..Sandy hook to manasquan inlet..I don't have a good feeling this year.. I look today and I saw possible tropical occurrence..was going to post a question but got busy packing...we are headed up the Hudson...so please keep us posted.
Hey Joanne, let me know if you stop off between the GWB and the Tappan Zee Bridge(NOT the Mario Cuomo Bridge lol), I'll come by and say hi!
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tropics
I know, I know, 18z GFS Op run. But……..the last few frames look pretty close to the evolution described further above
fluke, or foretelling? Stay tuned! Hopefully I’ll have an update by early next week that’s more substantive. Perhaps even a video discussion if I feel it’s warranted.
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rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Tropics
Lovely weather here in Costa Rica. Low 80s. Humid. Rain has been holding off each day.
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rb924119- Meteorologist
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rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Tropics
Looks like my earlier conjecture was a false alarm - should just see a time-mean trough over the eastern CONUS which would keep any tropical threats away from our area, excluding any perfect-track Atlantic basin wave that develops and rides the coast.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Tropics
Pretty colors but nothing really worth tracking, IMHO, all that closely
![Tropics Two_atl_5d0](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png)
![Tropics Two_atl_5d0](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png)
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Tropics
Quiet in this part of Costa Rica. Hot, humid, very little rain fall
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tropics
dkodgis wrote:Quiet in this part of Costa Rica. Hot, humid, very little rain fall
How long are you there for? Seems like you've been posting from there for a little bit. I am def jealous!
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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