Tropics
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Re: Tropics
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tropics
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tropics
weatherwatchermom wrote:Oh boy just texted my ex..he nd family moved to Florida this year...cape Coral! Is that not where the worst of this storm is going to be?
Hey mom, my brother is in Cape Coral, am going to check in with him later. As of this morning, anywhere from Ft. Myers north is still in play. They will have terrible conditions regardless of where landfall is. Tornadoes, storm surge, heavy rain in the neighborhood of 5-10" and strong winds will all hammer the area. My brother has been prepared since last week and is far enough in from the coast I think to avoid the surge. But 5-10" of rain? Not so sure. Hoping everyone in Florida listens to local authorities and evacuates if told to do so.
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Janet
Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
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Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
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Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Tropics
Dunnzoo wrote:weatherwatchermom wrote:Oh boy just texted my ex..he nd family moved to Florida this year...cape Coral! Is that not where the worst of this storm is going to be?
Hey mom, my brother is in Cape Coral, am going to check in with him later. As of this morning, anywhere from Ft. Myers north is still in play. They will have terrible conditions regardless of where landfall is. Tornadoes, storm surge, heavy rain in the neighborhood of 5-10" and strong winds will all hammer the area. My brother has been prepared since last week and is far enough in from the coast I think to avoid the surge. But 5-10" of rain? Not so sure. Hoping everyone in Florida listens to local authorities and evacuates if told to do so.
Close friends of ours just moved to Lakewood Ranch which is in between Bradenton and Sarasota a month ago. My brother from another mother lives in Fort Meyers with his family. Both will have their hands full this week for sure.
"Tom and Michelle welcome to sunny Florida. Have you met Ian yet?" Funny but not funny.
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Tropics
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Tropics
Dunnzoo wrote:weatherwatchermom wrote:Oh boy just texted my ex..he nd family moved to Florida this year...cape Coral! Is that not where the worst of this storm is going to be?
Hey mom, my brother is in Cape Coral, am going to check in with him later. As of this morning, anywhere from Ft. Myers north is still in play. They will have terrible conditions regardless of where landfall is. Tornadoes, storm surge, heavy rain in the neighborhood of 5-10" and strong winds will all hammer the area. My brother has been prepared since last week and is far enough in from the coast I think to avoid the surge. But 5-10" of rain? Not so sure. Hoping everyone in Florida listens to local authorities and evacuates if told to do so.
Fingers crossed..this is all so heart breaking
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tropics
oh boy ..fingers crossed for them all...so scary...sroc4 wrote:Dunnzoo wrote:weatherwatchermom wrote:Oh boy just texted my ex..he nd family moved to Florida this year...cape Coral! Is that not where the worst of this storm is going to be?
Hey mom, my brother is in Cape Coral, am going to check in with him later. As of this morning, anywhere from Ft. Myers north is still in play. They will have terrible conditions regardless of where landfall is. Tornadoes, storm surge, heavy rain in the neighborhood of 5-10" and strong winds will all hammer the area. My brother has been prepared since last week and is far enough in from the coast I think to avoid the surge. But 5-10" of rain? Not so sure. Hoping everyone in Florida listens to local authorities and evacuates if told to do so.
Close friends of ours just moved to Lakewood Ranch which is in between Bradenton and Sarasota a month ago. My brother from another mother lives in Fort Meyers with his family. Both will have their hands full this week for sure.
"Tom and Michelle welcome to sunny Florida. Have you met Ian yet?" Funny but not funny.
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tropics
jtswife- Posts : 81
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Re: Tropics
jtswife wrote:It coming in right over my head!!
Holy crap. Landfall may be to your north but still…
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Re: Tropics
![Tropics - Page 10 Hmon_mslp_wind_09L_13](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hmon/2022092706/hmon_mslp_wind_09L_13.png)
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Re: Tropics
![Tropics - Page 10 Storm_09_ens](https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_09_ens.gif)
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Re: Tropics
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Re: Tropics
EYEWALL EMERGES #HurricaneIan is about to move over OPEN water. Keywest radar site shows a tight symmetrical eyewall heading toward water temperatures well above 90 degrees! Central pressure actually dropped going over land! pic.twitter.com/Emsl1dbqDp
— Mike Masco (@MikeMasco) September 27, 2022
It's a tempest, natures fury and wrath will be unleashed. Take the chance as I said to my wife's aunt on Venice Beach when she bought there that this is a possibility. She poo pooed me. Now she is not happy. Never want to see it happen but it does.
NOTHING is stopping IAN now, absolutely nothing in his way, NO SHEAR, NO COOL waters but 90" OHC fuel to allow him to explode. HMON maybe onto his strength. One of the better HCANE models for this. South of Tampa looks to be ground zero. School at USF and Tampa U have been cancelled until Oct 3rd. hey ain't messing around.
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Tropics
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Tropics
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tropics
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Tropics
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Tropics
Mother of God...amugs wrote:This is just unreal, look at his eye over land!
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tropics
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Tropics
I am so sorry this is happening stay safe...will have you and your family in my thoughts!!jtswife wrote:It coming in right over my head!!
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tropics
sroc4 wrote:Well see how the rest of the recon data turns out but there may have been a little weakening this am. But again it will likely be short lived. Also there seems to be a definite NNE motion, however a minor wobble is possible too
Prob undergoing an EWRC which tends to temporarily weaken the peak winds followed by intensification
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Tropics
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Tropics
Worth noting that the eye has contracted since the previous reconnaissance mission as well (to 18nmi). Anecdotally (and this is supported by research done by @1900hurricane), storms with smaller eyes at the onset of RI episodes tend to deepen faster than those with broader cores. pic.twitter.com/mVW3QBuQ33
— Deelan Jariwala (@WxTca) September 27, 2022
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Tropics
amugs wrote:Storm Surge
Cool interactive Storm surge map that can be used to know where you are based on the Cat hurricane incoming. You can zoom in to individual streets etc. Look at the top of the page. This is set at Cat 3 but you can change it
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/203f772571cb48b1b8b50fdcc3272e2c/page/Category-3/
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Tropics
saw this..
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tropics
sroc4 wrote:amugs wrote:Storm Surge
Cool interactive Storm surge map that can be used to know where you are based on the Cat hurricane incoming. You can zoom in to individual streets etc. Look at the top of the page. This is set at Cat 3 but you can change it
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/203f772571cb48b1b8b50fdcc3272e2c/page/Category-3/
great minds...lol
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tropics
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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