Tropics

amugs wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Cone has shifted west and has psot tropical Nicole going right up delmarva and into nj and then into the wall inland northeast. This will be interesting. 850 winds for area are intense and with the heavy convective rain could easily mix down. I think most have lost a lot leaves so won't be a issue like earlier in yr. I could see TS watches warnings going up for area thurs.. ain't that something. Has that ever happened 2nd week of nov?

Yeah sorry no time to post pics thanks mugs. GFS continues to keep heaviest rain well to west of us then it cuts to the east, the strongest winds on eastern side. Of course this won't be pinned down for another 2 days or so after FL hit which looks near 100% likely. Reminds me like I said earlier like Isiaias in 2020 where all the rain was over PA and we got all the wind, of course hopefully not on the same scale but who knows, that wind field is beyond huge.

amugs wrote:

well that's quite a consensus pretty far out still. In top image wonder why main blue plot is so far east skewed from the rest. Or is that a single model?

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Cone has shifted west and has psot tropical Nicole going right up delmarva and into nj and then into the wall inland northeast. This will be interesting. 850 winds for area are intense and with the heavy convective rain could easily mix down. I think most have lost a lot leaves so won't be a issue like earlier in yr. I could see TS watches warnings going up for area thurs.. ain't that something. Has that ever happened 2nd week of nov?

These are historical stats for Tropical systems from 1851 through 2015.  My guess is that historically there have been several post tropical/hybrid type systems that have made their way up into the NE as well.  Before Sandy Nicole as a post tropical system likely would not have been tracked thje way it is today.  It would have been nothing more than a noreaster or system classifieds as "the remnants of.." and forgotten ion history.  Remember records back to 1851 is a drop in the bucket.  Dont get too excited that this is some sort of unique event.  It may not happen very often but clearly it has happened before...even before "global warming".  Also there have been tropical systems into December as well.

wasn't saying it was go b historic in sense of impacts I meant in terms of a system happening. But yes sandy changed it all. So since 2012 these are being remembered now. Which will skew with prior to sandy.

That is a BIG wind field on her - there will be many surprises from this storm.

WPB area hit - I kep saying between Boca and Jupiter this is going into.

amugs wrote:

That is a BIG wind field on her - there will be many surprises from this storm.

Yeah I was just saying that, Levi talked last night and said the winds were eventually going to pivot and be mainly on the western side, its a strange formation with the west being devoid of any sig winds. Winds up to 60mph per NHC btw. probably be a hurricane tonight or tomorrow morning latest.

Bastardi just posted this from 12z GFS. Fairly sig impacts especially well to east. Models still run her as far west as northern NY to across CT, so setup of the area of the highest winds will be questioned until we see her flying up the coast likely. Appears per Bastardi that majority of heavy rain will be on western side. Same as Isiais, not anywhere near as strong though, at least not as modeled yet.

THIS IS NOT CAUSED BY THE SO CALLED TACK THE WIND SPEED ON  ITS WHEN THE FLOW IS ALIGNED AND TURBULENT MIXING BRINGS THE STRONG WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE DOWN  Notie how its an open trough with strong winds to east

Interesting NHC cut the cone to end to day 3 and no longer has LR on it, wonder if they are passing on the remaining forecast to NWS or is that a error? Since sandy I thought they track until the system is a complete remnant?  anyways looking at models this appears to no longer to be much, if at all a rain event for us, but potentially fairly intense wind event.  Look at HWRF 850s like soul posted above but the latest run, only thing is without the intense precipitation would any of that mix down.







One thing for sure, other than Sandy that is one of the largest TS wind force fields I have seen and it whas become more aligned and now fully surrounds COC which is a sign of intensification, at 70mph will be a hurricane at any time. Dunno if wilkl become a cat 2 like bastardi is tooting but anything can happen. Amazing when she hits FL outer wind field will already be brushing southern SC.

My friend is storm chasing and met the Josh Morgamann. Sick. He is the world renowned hurricane hunter worldwide.




He is a man of his word and is following him

sroc4 wrote:

SENJsnowman wrote:Mugs, or anybody else, I was wondering if I could get a quick update on this potential storm please. I'm driving with the kids to Florida that week. We are planning to leave early in the morning of the November 6th, then stopping over for the night in Rocky Mount, NC (site of the beautiful traveler's special 4" snowstorm that me and the kids had the good fortune to experience this past January!!), and then staying in Jacksonville from Nov 7th-Nov 11. Driving back on the 11th but spending another night in NC and finally back home on the 12th.  

So, of course, I'm hoping this threat fizzled already, but I guess I also need to know if it hasn't. My hotel rooms are cancelable through Nov 2nd or so, but with NJ schools off for the week and being otherwise a slow travel week, I'd much rather be able to go. And I'm not all that concerned about rain, but more so potential for tropical storm or other severe conditions.

Thanks!

I’d say there is less than a 10% chance of that coming to fruition. Maybe less.

Was just reading over the tropics posts and I'll be danged if SENJ didn't hit the nail on the head with the exact dates that Nicole would be affecting the area. Hopefully he changed his plans and is either hunkered down riding it out, or is out ahead of it and out of harms way. Safe travels either way.

Sroc, it was a swing and a miss on your call, but in all fairness, this was 2 weeks ago. Too bad Mugsy didn't answer, he was right on the money at the time with that map. Nice call. You had this pegged all the way.

SENJsnowman wrote:Mugs, or anybody else, I was wondering if I could get a quick update on this potential storm please. I'm driving with the kids to Florida that week. We are planning to leave early in the morning of the November 6th, then stopping over for the night in Rocky Mount, NC (site of the beautiful traveler's special 4" snowstorm that me and the kids had the good fortune to experience this past January!!), and then staying in Jacksonville from Nov 7th-Nov 11. Driving back on the 11th but spending another night in NC and finally back home on the 12th.  

So, of course, I'm hoping this threat fizzled already, but I guess I also need to know if it hasn't. My hotel rooms are cancelable through Nov 2nd or so, but with NJ schools off for the week and being otherwise a slow travel week, I'd much rather be able to go. And I'm not all that concerned about rain, but more so potential for tropical storm or other severe conditions.

Thanks!

So, it looks like things ended up playing out more or less as was initially modeled and so here I am in Jacksonville, Fl, ready to head out north on I-95 back up to Florida. One last stop in to see my dad this morning and then me and the kids are rolling out. Not too too concerned with facing severe weather on the way but I am a little concerned that the Little Black Bus (my '22 Kia Forte!) is a bit undersized for really nasty conditions.

So, about 9 or 9:30 this morning we head out from Jax northbound for Richmond. I changed the stopover tonight from southern NC to central Virginia to hopefully outrun the storm a bit.

Tomorrow about 9 or 10 am, head out again and finish up the trip, getting back to GSP exit 80 hopefully by 3-4 pm Friday afternoon.

My brother (somewhat accurately) points out that I'm an idiot for riding along side the northeast 'dirty' quadrant. But I guess in tracking the forecasts up the coast for the next two days, it looks like even I-95 gets spared the nasty conditions once you get north of Brunswick and certainly once into South Carolina.

We shall see. In any event, my judgment might be a bit impaired bc all I can see through my eyes is the bright and warm sunshine    flowing into my heart and soul from getting to spend the last few days with my parents and my brother and his family. So blessed to be turning 50 years old next March and to still have both of my parents here with me.

Graybeard, thank you very much for the regards and concern and it looks like you beat me to my own punch so to speak. lol  

I think what is going to make my trip fairly bearable especially after this morning is that the 'recurve' back to the northeast is really bowing out to the west first, which of course moves the NE quadrant a bit more out of my way and it also should buy me a few more hours to get out of Dixie! But it is POURING right now and the 'heavy stuff' is yet to come!

I have changed my plans once already...now I'm thinking leave later today, not go to richmond but stop in central/northern NC and finish up a bit longer trip tomorrow...

I can actually cancel my Richmond booking for tonight through 6 pm today! Amazing...

*Edit* Just booked a room for tonight Wilson, NC, about 1.5 hours south of Virginia state line, also fully refundable before 6 pm tonight. What a hoot that is!!

sroc4 wrote:

GreyBeard wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

SENJsnowman wrote:Mugs, or anybody else, I was wondering if I could get a quick update on this potential storm please. I'm driving with the kids to Florida that week. We are planning to leave early in the morning of the November 6th, then stopping over for the night in Rocky Mount, NC (site of the beautiful traveler's special 4" snowstorm that me and the kids had the good fortune to experience this past January!!), and then staying in Jacksonville from Nov 7th-Nov 11. Driving back on the 11th but spending another night in NC and finally back home on the 12th.  

So, of course, I'm hoping this threat fizzled already, but I guess I also need to know if it hasn't. My hotel rooms are cancelable through Nov 2nd or so, but with NJ schools off for the week and being otherwise a slow travel week, I'd much rather be able to go. And I'm not all that concerned about rain, but more so potential for tropical storm or other severe conditions.

Thanks!

I’d say there is less than a 10% chance of that coming to fruition. Maybe less.

Was just reading over the tropics posts and I'll be danged if SENJ didn't hit the nail on the head with the exact dates that Nicole would be affecting the area. Hopefully he changed his plans and is either hunkered down riding it out, or is out ahead of it and out of harms way. Safe travels either way.

Sroc, it was a swing and a miss on your call, but in all fairness, this was 2 weeks ago. Too bad Mugsy didn't answer, he was right on the money at the time with that map. Nice call. You had this pegged all the way.

I think the saying is “even the sun shines on a dogs ass from time to time”. Lol. I think an approx 10% chance was a pretty accurate call given the lead time.  I guess it balances out my left hook right on the jaw for Ian.

All good SROC. Actually, when you said that, I just figured that my 'luck' would likely go to work on that 10% and bring it back to full strength before all was said and done! lol

New travel plan- stay put for today and head out first thing in the AM, drive either to northern NC or hopefully up to Richmond tomorrow and then finish up Saturday morning. I think at worst, I'll get some nuisance rain, but probably avoid most or all the tropical conditions. I wasn't thrilled with the amounts of red/orange/yellow patches indicated by the radar for I-95 throughout the south today...and it was too much of a coordinated campaign by my brother, mother and sister-in-law to not drive today!

I'd say the tropics are done for the US for this year. Maybe another cyclone in the tropics but for us, no pun intended, I'd say we are cooked. Goes down as an underwhelming season to what was forecasted by many, me included. Love to read the why to the what now.

If I could just finish up my little travel saga, it looks like waiting a day is going to work out very well. For those who remember the old NFL Films, the idea is to create seal over here, and a seal over here, and to run the play …IN the alley!


And what it would have looked like yesterday: