Re: Tropics

by **jmanley32** Sun Sep 25, 2022 3:24 pm

dkodgis wrote:The models should make SJ folks sweat a bit too

Whats SJ? The Euro is beyond aweful 24 hrs starts impact full landfall and still riding up spine of FL after over 30 hrs, yikes. This will go down in hx even worse than Andrew possible on the flooding part at least I mean thats going to batter beaches on western cost to obliteration. I don't mean to sound dramatic, I think it is concerning and dramatic potential is high.

by **Dunnzoo** Sun Sep 25, 2022 3:25 pm

12Z Euro has it crawling up the FL coast, from about Sarasota on north. Going to cause a big problem! (Sorry, can't post link or pic, on phone at work.

by **Dunnzoo** Sun Sep 25, 2022 3:30 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
dkodgis wrote:The models should make SJ folks sweat a bit too
Whats SJ? The Euro is beyond aweful 24 hrs starts impact full landfall and still riding up spine of FL after over 30 hrs, yikes. This will go down in hx even worse than Andrew possible on the flooding part at least I mean thats going to batter beaches on western cost to obliteration. I don't mean to sound dramatic, I think it is concerning and dramatic potential is high.

The GFS has the remnants moving up the mid-atlantic and through SNJ (SJ - south Jersey) and out to sea, not making it north of NYC

by **jmanley32** Sun Sep 25, 2022 3:36 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
dkodgis wrote:The models should make SJ folks sweat a bit too
Whats SJ? The Euro is beyond aweful 24 hrs starts impact full landfall and still riding up spine of FL after over 30 hrs, yikes. This will go down in hx even worse than Andrew possible on the flooding part at least I mean thats going to batter beaches on western cost to obliteration. I don't mean to sound dramatic, I think it is concerning and dramatic potential is high.

The GFS has the remnants moving up the mid-atlantic and through SNJ (SJ - south Jersey) and out to sea, not making it north of NYC

So no rain even here 10 miles north of NYC, is it really go be that splitting hairs close? What will prevent Ian from going further north a HP? It looks like just some rain though no biggie, we need it.

by **Dunnzoo** Sun Sep 25, 2022 3:39 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
dkodgis wrote:The models should make SJ folks sweat a bit too
Whats SJ? The Euro is beyond aweful 24 hrs starts impact full landfall and still riding up spine of FL after over 30 hrs, yikes. This will go down in hx even worse than Andrew possible on the flooding part at least I mean thats going to batter beaches on western cost to obliteration. I don't mean to sound dramatic, I think it is concerning and dramatic potential is high.

The GFS has the remnants moving up the mid-atlantic and through SNJ (SJ - south Jersey) and out to sea, not making it north of NYC
So no rain even here 10 miles north of NYC, is it really go be that splitting hairs close? What will prevent Ian from going further north a HP? It looks like just some rain though no biggie, we need it.

Way too soon to tell, as Euro has the storm going up the Ohio Valley! We'll just have to wait and see where it makes landfall. I for one hope it misses to our south, I will be driving back from Niagara Falls on Sat. Oct 1st. and don't need it to be a nasty drive home.

by **sroc4** Sun Sep 25, 2022 3:44 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
dkodgis wrote:The models should make SJ folks sweat a bit too
Whats SJ? The Euro is beyond aweful 24 hrs starts impact full landfall and still riding up spine of FL after over 30 hrs, yikes. This will go down in hx even worse than Andrew possible on the flooding part at least I mean thats going to batter beaches on western cost to obliteration. I don't mean to sound dramatic, I think it is concerning and dramatic potential is high.

The GFS has the remnants moving up the mid-atlantic and through SNJ (SJ - south Jersey) and out to sea, not making it north of NYC
So no rain even here 10 miles north of NYC, is it really go be that splitting hairs close? What will prevent Ian from going further north a HP? It looks like just some rain though no biggie, we need it.

Models still haven’t figured out current track inside 3 days. Speculation on beyond that at this point

by **rb924119** Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:07 pm

I was asked to take a closer look at this storm by a good friend of mine, so by default, that means I’ll be posting them for anybody interested haha not sure if I’ll go through the rigor of a video discussion or just do a shorter write-up, but either way there will be something lol

by **rb924119** Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:14 pm

Oyy what a nightmare of a forecast……the intricacies of this track forecast are more intriguing than any cursory glance could show.

by **sroc4** Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:25 pm

rb924119 wrote:Oyy what a nightmare of a forecast……the intricacies of this track forecast are more intriguing than any cursory glance could show.

Yes sir. So much nuance. I have to be honest. Looking at current Dvorak, water vapor and the visible sat imagery it looks more like a NNw motion through most of the loop. Also Looking at the conus water vapor the mean trough is digging. I really think by tomorrow the cone shifts back south of Ft Meyers

by **sroc4** Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:26 pm

Fwiw 18z gfs is significantly east even compared to 12z

by **jmanley32** Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:43 pm

Ian is weakened a bit and has almost no windfield, wouldn't it be a relief if he just never developed. I have never seen such a tiny windfield must be 30 miles.

by **rb924119** Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:44 pm

sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Oyy what a nightmare of a forecast……the intricacies of this track forecast are more intriguing than any cursory glance could show.

Yes sir. So much nuance. I have to be honest. Looking at current Dvorak, water vapor and the visible sat imagery it looks more like a NNw motion through most of the loop. Also Looking at the conus water vapor the mean trough is digging. I really think by tomorrow the cone shifts back south of Ft Meyers

Based on the most recently completed recon mission, there are still two competing centers, though the eastern one appears to be taking over now (in my opinion). Regardless, there should be a little Fujiwara effect go on between these competing circulation within the larger overall circulation. This meso-scale interaction is likely leading to initial uncertainty in the modeling. Beyond that, I think that once this thing consolidates, it’s going to be off to the races with intensification, which, as you know, impacts the track. I think it (the main circulation) ends up shooting the gap through the Yucatán Strait before bending back toward Florida with even further intensification.

How it interacts with the trough is even more complicated. Though it’s not the main trough, per say, that is going to dictate the meaningful part of the track for the U.S. it’s a secondary “trough”/remnant energy that I think shows its hand late in the game and draws the storm (which I think makes a run for Cat-5 before landfall) northward and then eventually northwestward away from the peninsula. Details forthcoming.

by **sroc4** Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:17 pm

rb924119 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Oyy what a nightmare of a forecast……the intricacies of this track forecast are more intriguing than any cursory glance could show.

Yes sir. So much nuance. I have to be honest. Looking at current Dvorak, water vapor and the visible sat imagery it looks more like a NNw motion through most of the loop. Also Looking at the conus water vapor the mean trough is digging. I really think by tomorrow the cone shifts back south of Ft Meyers

Based on the most recently completed recon mission, there are still two competing centers, though the eastern one appears to be taking over now (in my opinion). Regardless, there should be a little Fujiwara effect go on between these competing circulation within the larger overall circulation. This meso-scale interaction is likely leading to initial uncertainty in the modeling. Beyond that, I think that once this thing consolidates, it’s going to be off to the races with intensification, which, as you know, impacts the track. I think it (the main circulation) ends up shooting the gap through the Yucatán Strait before bending back toward Florida with even further intensification.

How it interacts with the trough is even more complicated. Though it’s not the main trough, per say, that is going to dictate the meaningful part of the track for the U.S. it’s a secondary “trough”/remnant energy that I think shows its hand late in the game and draws the storm (which I think makes a run for Cat-5 before landfall) northward and then eventually northwestward away from the peninsula. Details forthcoming.

I noticed that all day there seemed to be two area of surface circulation on the recon data. Didn’t even think of Fujiwara between the two but of course that makes sense. Also likely why the mid level convection is so disorganized and hasn’t really gotten organized. When I look at this loop I think this has been the track of the main LLC. This would likely reset our model algorithm output if this area ends up being dominant. But like you said if there is another LLC saw of the one I higkiugyted then they certainly could dance the fujiwara dance and consolidated further SW

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=truecolor

by **sroc4** Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:19 pm

And just like that current recon shows 55kt surface winds and pressure down to 992. It’s on now.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

by **dkodgis** Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:31 pm

Ian looks like a slow mover. It will bring lots of rain because of that? To my eye, it looks like a week from today before it is up here. I am trying not to focus on category nor path so much as on its effects in a week (here)

by **amugs** Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:40 pm

GFS is just horrid with tropical systems.

last 4 runs of GFS shifting east pic.twitter.com/Hewc1TshqH
— Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) September 25, 2022

Euro is on this and has been. It has wavered little. This is going to be bad for the Tampa St Pete area, real bad.

by **amugs** Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:41 pm

by tomsriversnowstorm Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:48 pm

Mugs when you say bad like how bad? Sorry I am far from an expert and kinda clueless. I mean could this make it up to a 2 or 3 because that would be real bad.

by **sroc4** Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:51 pm

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:Mugs when you say bad like how bad? Sorry I am far from an expert and kinda clueless. I mean could this make it up to a 2 or 3 because that would be real bad.

Real bad could be a 4.

by tomsriversnowstorm Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:55 pm

Oh god that is horrible. Thank you for the information though. We can only pray everyone is safe.

by **Joe Snow** Sun Sep 25, 2022 8:59 pm

sroc4 wrote:
tomsriversnowstorm wrote:Mugs when you say bad like how bad? Sorry I am far from an expert and kinda clueless. I mean could this make it up to a 2 or 3 because that would be real bad.

Real bad could be a 4.

I agree, Ian is starting to rapidly intensify at the moment. The western end of Cuba is basically flat land so he’ll steam plow through and and drink that very warm water in the gulf.
Tampa schools are closed till Thursday as they fear impact of Ian. Never experienced a Florida cane before, and people are starting to panic buy. Yesterday all the stores were out of bottled water and Tampa ran out of gasoline and water.

I am about 110 miles north east of Tampa so not sure how much of an impact it will be here, but people are panic buying here as well.

by **sroc4** Sun Sep 25, 2022 9:10 pm

Joe Snow wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
tomsriversnowstorm wrote:Mugs when you say bad like how bad? Sorry I am far from an expert and kinda clueless. I mean could this make it up to a 2 or 3 because that would be real bad.

Real bad could be a 4.

I agree, Ian is starting to rapidly intensify at the moment. The western end of Cuba is basically flat land so he’ll steam plow through and and drink that very warm water in the gulf.
Tampa schools are closed till Thursday as they fear impact of Ian. Never experienced a Florida cane before, and people are starting to panic buy. Yesterday all the stores were out of bottled water and Tampa ran out of gasoline and water.

I am about 110 miles north east of Tampa so not sure how much of an impact it will be here, but people are panic buying here as well.

Hey Joe. If my memory serves me right weren’t you in Stony Brook Long Island? Did you move?

by **Joe Snow** Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:33 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Joe Snow wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
tomsriversnowstorm wrote:Mugs when you say bad like how bad? Sorry I am far from an expert and kinda clueless. I mean could this make it up to a 2 or 3 because that would be real bad.

Real bad could be a 4.

I agree, Ian is starting to rapidly intensify at the moment. The western end of Cuba is basically flat land so he’ll steam plow through and and drink that very warm water in the gulf.
Tampa schools are closed till Thursday as they fear impact of Ian. Never experienced a Florida cane before, and people are starting to panic buy. Yesterday all the stores were out of bottled water and Tampa ran out of gasoline and water.

I am about 110 miles north east of Tampa so not sure how much of an impact it will be here, but people are panic buying here as well.

Hey Joe. If my memory serves me right weren’t you in Stony Brook Long Island? Did you move?

For the time being. We’ll see how it goes. Going to miss the winter this coming season. We got a place that needs a ton of work.

by **amugs** Sun Sep 25, 2022 11:21 pm

And he's angry peeps, those brown tops are RI = rapid intensification around the eyewall. I also expect a shfit SE with the landfall zone and cone after the latest model runs and info is digested.

by **amugs** Sun Sep 25, 2022 11:23 pm

Aunt in Venice Beach Fla, about 20 miles N of Tampa put up hcane shutters. Said everyone has started preps, many boarding up and heading out. Prayers for them all.

by **amugs** Sun Sep 25, 2022 11:44 pm

amugs wrote:And he's angry peeps, those brown tops are RI = rapid intensification around the eyewall. I also expect a shfit SE with the landfall zone and cone after the latest model runs and info is digested.

by **amugs** Sun Sep 25, 2022 11:46 pm

What I tell ya?? I said between Ft Myers and Naples and maybe off by about 25 miles N maybe 50 landfall. We'll see but a Major now, CAT 3 or 4 = REALLY BAD!!

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