Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

[docstox12]

Hope the pattern does change for us because all I have been seeing since Nov 1 is snowstorm after snowstorm hitting the Central, North Central and NW Central of the USA. Their pattern is producing big time.

[mmanisca]

HOLY SCHNIKES - THIS IS GETTING BRUTAL COLD FOR DECEMBER!! COLDER EACH RUN!!

Between the SSWE and anomalous -EPO we’re looking at extreme cold

But we can’t get the east coast snowstorm…Ugh. Mild and wet followed by very cold and dry…After the artic dump do we end up going back to troughing out west.

[sroc4]

HOLY SCHNIKES - THIS IS GETTING BRUTAL COLD FOR DECEMBER!! COLDER EACH RUN!!

Between the SSWE and anomalous -EPO we’re looking at extreme cold

But we can’t get the east coast snowstorm…Ugh. Mild and wet followed by very cold and dry…After the artic dump do we end up going back to troughing out west.

IMO the pattern looks set up for multiple nor easter snow threats between Dec 20th and Jan 5th.  And dont sleep on this weekend just yet. Def going to be mighty tough for us Long Island folks but I really dont think its dead just yet. An initial inch or two is still on the table for us

[mmanisca]

HOLY SCHNIKES - THIS IS GETTING BRUTAL COLD FOR DECEMBER!! COLDER EACH RUN!!

Between the SSWE and anomalous -EPO we’re looking at extreme cold

But we can’t get the east coast snowstorm…Ugh. Mild and wet followed by very cold and dry…After the artic dump do we end up going back to troughing out west.

IMO the pattern looks set up for multiple nor easter snow threats between Dec 20th and Jan 5th.  And dont sleep on this weekend just yet.  Def going to be mighty tough for us Long Island folks but I really dont think its dead just yet.  An initial inch or two is still on the table for us

I’m not giving up,I concur with you on how tough it is for us on the Island to get snow.Very difficult to get a handle on much these days with all these storms and how they will move with the atmospheric set up.

[amugs]

THis is one hell of a Negative Arctic Oscillation that will dump cold air into the US

[Frank_Wx]

This is a nice look around Christmas



IDEALLY you want to see the ridge axis further east. Unfortunately the tropical pacific is pretty devoid of wave activity (blame La Nina), so the likelihood of getting an ideal-place ridge is kinda slim. Nevertheless, the PNA is west-based and the EPO is also negative.

It is not a perfect pattern by any means, but one that will bring the cold and ample chances for snow. Hopefully we can cash in on at least one wave.

[amugs]

You have all the major players of the table at this time.
N EPO
+ PNA and yes a tad moer est we'd like but we can make up I believe with
N AO/NAO couplet and a 50/50 block

[heehaw453]

You have all the major players of the table at this time.
N EPO
+ PNA and yes a tad moer est we'd like but we can make up I believe with
N AO/NAO couplet and a 50/50 block

I agree.  Get the ridge on west to pump a bit more and the block to press a bit more will force the ULL underneath.  That's the key IMO.  If that happens there will there will be a major snow storm somewhere on the I95 DC-BOS

[Irish]

So, I know some are dealing with the current storm for tomorrow into Friday bringing snow or wintry precip. However, it'll be an all rain event for my area.

Being the long range thread, my attention has turned to next Thursday into Friday (22-23) and TWC is already throwing out snowfall totals of up to a half foot. Now, sure it's too early for that but that just tells me that they're getting a major signal pinging already. Then it's showing for more possible action the 25th-28th.

Am I seeing things right?

[Radz]

Major storm signal right before Christmas, but way too early, should start coming into focus over the weekend I’m guessing

[Irish]

Major storm signal right before Christmas, but way too early, should start coming into focus over the weekend I’m guessing

So, I get up this morning and am looking at things and it seems they're zeroing in on an event Thursday into Friday, the % has increased and they've actually raised the projected totals up to 4-8".

It's beginning to look a lot like a white Christmas...

I'm getting pumped a little, who's with me?!

[sroc4]

Let me begin this mornings' discussion by adding a few grains of salt right off the bat because this is a discussion about the LR after all, and we all know the LR likes to evolve away from what we thought was going to happen.  That said...  




This map is the Euro ensemble mean for the week headed into the Christmas weekend.  Mugs posted similar map yesterday but I really think it bares repeating.  



IF this look comes to fruition I would be absolutely shocked if 95% of this board didn't have a white Christmas.  I mean truly shocked.  This is about as text book of a look for a wide spread arctic outbreak and snow potential as I have seen in a really long time.

Now please let me reiterate this.  I'm sure there are some of you reading this and rolling the eyes thinking ok here we go again.  Another overhyped post that wont even come close to the hype.  Your right.  That is probably true.  But even close to this look with the trough south of the Aleutians, the ridging into Alaska, the N Pole, and into the Greenland area will absolutely produce multiple snow opportunities into the NE.  There is NO QUESTION about that.  

Now this is nothing more than a cautiously optimistic broad brushed big picture overview of where the pattern appears to be headed, but there is a lot to be excited about.  This is not coming from this one map from this one model either.  There are multiple levels/layers of possible support for this outcome or some version of this outcome regarding the pattern.   Which part of the NE will see what and when, we don't start to hone in on those details until inside the 5-7day mark, and then in your back yard and/or mine, not until inside 1-3days, so please dont look beyond the big picture for now regarding this time frame and remember it can and will likely change as we get in closer.   

So again I will end with the proverbial grain of salt.  

Irish if you're reading this time frame absolutely has merit.  Please re read the bolded statements above.  Below is where this pattern has evolved to, and you can see we have evidence of ridging and troughs in key areas which greatly increase the odds for a major storm along the eastern seaboard.  We are still in the 7-10day time frame so for me I cont to say nothing more than 100% there is a strong storm signal for this time period.  But like Radz stated and I mentioned above(underlined) by this weekend we can really start to hone in on the details.  Should be an exciting week or two upcoming of tracking.      

We have spotted the elusive white whale(White Xmas) Irish.  Now we have to reel her in!



We Track!!!!

[heehaw453]

Great analysis sroc.  I think the big difference next week is a maturing pattern. Many times when the AO goes bonkers like it has it takes a bit for it to couple with the other domains, but IMO the PAC has shown good signs of being workable as the pattern matures even with this storm today/tomorrow.  I originally thought 12/15-22 would be potential for something sig.  Hopefully Frank will be dialing up the SCI soon!

[MattyICE]

I have little doubt that there will be a highly impactful storm. And I think things are trending more favorably for the coastal plain. I think there are ways we can score and this is the best potential we have seen yet - however, this is going to be a very intriguing and anomalous pattern that will spit out wild solutions especially on operational output over the next several days. I actually like the period just after this most as the pattern will be most mature. Our most memorable storms always require a lot of factors to come together just right, but thats what makes them special. So while I favor the following threats at this time I am certainly hopeful next week can get more people involved than today/tonight’s threat.

[heehaw453]

An operation model 7 days out.  Yep I get it, too many things can change.  Get the PNA to couple with the block like is being depicted and see how this board lights up in a few days.

[billg315]

I'm feeling pretty good that most people on this board will see some accumulating snow by Christmas. Not necessarily saying everyone gets a big storm, but some snow on the ground looks increasingly likely.

[sroc4]

An operation model 7 days out.  Yep I get it, too many things can change.  Get the PNA to couple with the block like is being depicted and see how this board lights up in a few days.

It was a beautiful run for sure.  Watching the 500mb vort come together on that run is a thing of beauty.  Northern energy phasing with the stj, trough tilting neg at just the right moment.  Killer CCB.  mmm mm mmmm.  Bottle it up

The white whale!!!  Let's reel it in.  Many ups and downs to come though.  

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/namer/vort500_z500/1671105600/1671840000-LFnSuYSPjaM.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/conus/vort500_z500/1671105600/1671850800-NOD7KfQFAzM.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/east/t850_mslp_prcp6hr/1671105600/1671861600-rJa6jps7csE.png

[TheAresian]

I'll be pulling for you guys to get this one. I know it's a way out, but so far, so good.

[sroc4]

I'll be pulling for you guys to get this one. I know it's a way out, but so far, so good.

Hey there old friend. Looks like you will do very well with this one. Post pics if you can for us Coasties

[TheAresian]

Will do. I'm going to wait until the ground is covered though. The first couple of hours were sleet so it looked like more like a really poor quality glazing.

[heehaw453]

What a powder keg on the 12Z Euro. Damn beautiful ridge too.

[sroc4]

What a powder keg on the 12Z Euro. Damn beautiful ridge too.

yup. just a few hrs away from an all out nuke that crawls up the coast.  Slow that leading energy down by a few short hrs or accelerate the trailing energy and you have your detonation.  Good spot this far out out.  

Man seeing the potential at this lead time is infuriating because how many times have we seen it vanish for one reason or another.  Bottom line pattern is set up for this sort of soln but we have way to long to go before we start vibrating in our chairs.

[heehaw453]

Wow that's pretty on the EPS.  Impressive PNA pump.

[jmanley32]

Mark my words this will happen and it will be BIG. We are supposed to see my parents for xmas this year and leaving the 24th to go. Last year we all had COVID so could not get together, I hope that this can hit b4 the 24th and roads be good enough for travel on the 24th cuz I will have one sad child again this year if not. I am rooting for a big storm of course but lets keep it on 22nd/23rd time frame, what are the chances it happens on 24th? Yes I know way to far out to know but if you were to guess scott heehaw etc?

[jmanley32]

Well I just saw 12z operational and wow, dumptoms snow ferocias winds what more could you ask for? and on the 24th as I expected, that is a monster verbatim if it was further west by not even that much would be a roid potentially. Still waiting for that elusive frankzilla lol, I fully expect a poor photoshop of franks head on a godzilla if that ever happens lol. 3-4 ft between the two storms for beantown, damn them lol, lets get this west.

[sroc4]

Well I just saw 12z operational and wow, dumptoms snow ferocias winds what more could you ask for? and on the 24th as I expected, that is a monster verbatim if it was further west by not even that much would be a roid potentially. Still waiting for that elusive frankzilla lol, I fully expect a poor photoshop of franks head on a godzilla if that ever happens lol. 3-4 ft between the two storms for beantown, damn them lol, lets get this west.

[jmanley32]

Well I just saw 12z operational and wow, dumptoms snow ferocias winds what more could you ask for? and on the 24th as I expected, that is a monster verbatim if it was further west by not even that much would be a roid potentially. Still waiting for that elusive frankzilla lol, I fully expect a poor photoshop of franks head on a godzilla if that ever happens lol. 3-4 ft between the two storms for beantown, damn them lol, lets get this west.

glad you liked that lol

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