Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

by **amugs** March 1st 2023, 4:36 pm

Winter is back....well its back from the dead LOL!!

Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 40 Image.png.0398868cc39243f79f4ace1c0adeb57a

by **SENJsnowman** March 1st 2023, 4:54 pm

heehaw453 wrote:During March 2018 I had over 1' by March 13. How long does the SER take to get beaten down? Here is March 2018 during first 10 days. Clearly we didn't have the SER problem we have with this pattern and had neutral PNA. This tells me it's after 3/10 and anywhere on the coastal plain it's really fighting climo. Think maybe 10 window to score something, but it ain't going to be easy.

Yep, the coast fights climo big time after March 10- especially the southern coastal plain. Like I mentioned a few weeks ago, the unshakeable micro-trend for the Shore this season has been to be summarily dismissed from any all threats at the onset. So, realistically, down here we are probably <10% to really partake in any mid-late March rewards. But you know me...

Ironically enough, it was the 4th and final storm in that March 2018 pattern that finally brought the goods to the Jersey Shore, the coastal plain of all coastal plains! That storm was either on the first or second day of spring, approximately March 18 or even March 20. And due to a heavy N Atlantic block, Ocean County got 13" in like 6 hours* because after an hour or two of the storm grinding over the top of us, the column cooled drastically and quickly. And the pending conditions do seem to be reminiscent of March 2018. MJO 8-1 and a block, right? Better to go into the final stretch with that combo of conditions anyway, hopefully at least make interesting for us southern coasties.

And Mugs, you started calling this exact pattern change WEEKS ago! Well done- again.

*omg, what a moment that was! After 2 days of chilling rain and AFTER the canceled school day had already ended, the heavens opened up and the frozen manna just would not stop! And several loud claps of thunder! We all just sat in the living room and watched in awe and amazement as God and nature just went to town!!!

by **jmanley32** March 1st 2023, 5:23 pm

Accuwx has areas from central westchester and south to just south of NY in 1-3 inches, wont take much to push it to 3-6 but ill take 1-3 but by looking at how much precip there will be and a eventual changeover it will likely wash both storms away, looks to impact sat morning/afternoon especially in CT where the area I am going to GFS shows 6+ so I guess I will be postponing my trip.

by **jmanley32** March 1st 2023, 5:25 pm

NAM not enthused except well inland, I am more inclined to believe the NAM at this range than the GFS but the GFS did fairly well with the Monday storm.

by **frank 638** March 1st 2023, 6:00 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Accuwx has areas from central westchester and south to just south of NY in 1-3 inches, wont take much to push it to 3-6 but ill take 1-3 but by looking at how much precip there will be and a eventual changeover it will likely wash both storms away, looks to impact sat morning/afternoon especially in CT where the area I am going to GFS shows 6+ so I guess I will be postponing my trip.

I am confused because AccuWeather has me for 1-3 inches of snow and 0.5 of ice for Friday I thought this was supposed to be a rain storm for the city

by **jmanley32** March 1st 2023, 6:17 pm

frank 638 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Accuwx has areas from central westchester and south to just south of NY in 1-3 inches, wont take much to push it to 3-6 but ill take 1-3 but by looking at how much precip there will be and a eventual changeover it will likely wash both storms away, looks to impact sat morning/afternoon especially in CT where the area I am going to GFS shows 6+ so I guess I will be postponing my trip.
I am confused because AccuWeather has me for 1-3 inches of snow and 0.5 of ice for Friday I thought this was supposed to be a rain storm for the city

Different sources are saying different things, readback to this morning with scotts post. The NWS is also going colder.

by **frank 638** March 1st 2023, 6:26 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
frank 638 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Accuwx has areas from central westchester and south to just south of NY in 1-3 inches, wont take much to push it to 3-6 but ill take 1-3 but by looking at how much precip there will be and a eventual changeover it will likely wash both storms away, looks to impact sat morning/afternoon especially in CT where the area I am going to GFS shows 6+ so I guess I will be postponing my trip.
I am confused because AccuWeather has me for 1-3 inches of snow and 0.5 of ice for Friday I thought this was supposed to be a rain storm for the city
Different sources are saying different things, readback to this morning with scotts post. The NWS is also going colder.

Definitely going to check it out thanks for the update

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** March 1st 2023, 8:38 pm

frank 638 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
frank 638 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Accuwx has areas from central westchester and south to just south of NY in 1-3 inches, wont take much to push it to 3-6 but ill take 1-3 but by looking at how much precip there will be and a eventual changeover it will likely wash both storms away, looks to impact sat morning/afternoon especially in CT where the area I am going to GFS shows 6+ so I guess I will be postponing my trip.
I am confused because AccuWeather has me for 1-3 inches of snow and 0.5 of ice for Friday I thought this was supposed to be a rain storm for the city
Different sources are saying different things, readback to this morning with scotts post. The NWS is also going colder.
Definitely going to check it out thanks for the update

Don't waste your time Frank, Fridays system is a big 0 for the city unless something really drastic happens between now and then, which is highly unlikely.

by **frank 638** March 1st 2023, 9:07 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
frank 638 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
frank 638 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Accuwx has areas from central westchester and south to just south of NY in 1-3 inches, wont take much to push it to 3-6 but ill take 1-3 but by looking at how much precip there will be and a eventual changeover it will likely wash both storms away, looks to impact sat morning/afternoon especially in CT where the area I am going to GFS shows 6+ so I guess I will be postponing my trip.
I am confused because AccuWeather has me for 1-3 inches of snow and 0.5 of ice for Friday I thought this was supposed to be a rain storm for the city
Different sources are saying different things, readback to this morning with scotts post. The NWS is also going colder.
Definitely going to check it out thanks for the update

Don't waste your time Frank, Fridays system is a big 0 for the city unless something really drastic happens between now and then, which is highly unlikely.

thats what I figured thanks for the update

by **sroc4** March 2nd 2023, 9:06 am

All's quiet on the Western Front...for Obv reasons.

by **TheAresian** March 2nd 2023, 9:38 am

It's weird here. Accuweather is upping the snow prediction while everybody else is lowering it, but raising the mixed/ice total. GFS is calling for .13" of frz with .2" only 20 or so miles away so it's definitely not out of play. If ice is on the menu, I'd rather have it be an all rain event.

by **sroc4** March 2nd 2023, 9:54 am

TheAresian wrote:It's weird here. Accuweather is upping the snow prediction while everybody else is lowering it, but raising the mixed/ice total. GFS is calling for .13" of frz with .2" only 20 or so miles away so it's definitely not out of play. If ice is on the menu, I'd rather have it be an all rain event.

Looks like the western front has spoken. Lol. I hope all is well. I agree regarding the ice. Id rather all rain. Only going to create problems.

by **TheAresian** March 2nd 2023, 10:08 am

The western front would speak more if there was something to say. A winter with day after day of mid to upper 30s/lower 40s with no snow isn't winter. I've been pulling for all of you all winter but no amount of cheering seems to be able to convince the southeast ridge to move along.

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