Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

by **sroc4** Fri Dec 16, 2022 1:54 pm

heehaw453 wrote:The PNA is much better on the Euro this run and digs the ULL more. That's good. On the bad side it consolidates the ULL and nothing runs out ahead of it to prevent a ridge from dipping into the east coast. That kills the antecedent air mass and will allow the ULL to pull north. That's bad. I'm just happy to see the PNA better whether or not the ULL doesn't consolidate so fast is my concern and has been. I don't think the PNA will kill us on this one, but the ULL being too strong may do just that.

I hear what your saying and we are still pretty far out in time so Im not jumping yet. The biggest difference is really the area in SE Canada. There is an ULL creating some confluence in the NE on the GFS where as the Euro and CMC do not.

TAMPICO - Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 14 Gfs15

TAMPICO - Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 14 Euro11

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:05 pm

MOG the 12z GFS is drool worthy.

by **heehaw453** Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:07 pm

Good points. I see this as a subtle difference that may allow for the faster consolidation of the ULL. The energy on Euro in Pacific Canada is stronger and more consolidated than GFS. That may allow for it to not move quickly out ahead to create the confluence and clear out any east coast ridging. My gut tells me based on what I'm seeing with the ridge/block this won't be a total bust like what non GFS guidance is showing today. None of the 500mb teleconnections are hostile and yet models are showing a hostile solution. We shall see.

TAMPICO - Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 14 Euro76

TAMPICO - Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 14 Gfs99

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:15 pm

sroc4 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:The PNA is much better on the Euro this run and digs the ULL more. That's good. On the bad side it consolidates the ULL and nothing runs out ahead of it to prevent a ridge from dipping into the east coast. That kills the antecedent air mass and will allow the ULL to pull north. That's bad. I'm just happy to see the PNA better whether or not the ULL doesn't consolidate so fast is my concern and has been. I don't think the PNA will kill us on this one, but the ULL being too strong may do just that.

I hear what your saying and we are still pretty far out in time so Im not jumping yet. The biggest difference is really the area in SE Canada. There is an ULL creating some confluence in the NE on the GFS where as the Euro and CMC do not.

Would be interested in seeing the full north america view. That’s a pretty big difference…

Also funny how the GFS is the one showing a massive PNA ridge. Normally it’s the other way around.

by **phil155** Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:19 pm

Just hoping to get some snow, would be nice especially with Christmas right around the corner

by **docstox12** Fri Dec 16, 2022 3:02 pm

sroc4 wrote:Euro = Torchy McTorcherton

Will be interesting to see if this cuts like yesterdays storm does.That makes me think a bad pattern may be setting in.Way too soon for this one, good thing there is a storm signal.

by **heehaw453** Fri Dec 16, 2022 3:17 pm

^^^ Yep. Short wave timing is everything. Even in the best pattern if the pieces don't come together at the right time you're hosed. Models will start to converge this weekend one way or the other.

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Dec 16, 2022 3:46 pm

TAMPICO - Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 14 Fkigea10

by **sroc4** Fri Dec 16, 2022 3:51 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:The PNA is much better on the Euro this run and digs the ULL more. That's good. On the bad side it consolidates the ULL and nothing runs out ahead of it to prevent a ridge from dipping into the east coast. That kills the antecedent air mass and will allow the ULL to pull north. That's bad. I'm just happy to see the PNA better whether or not the ULL doesn't consolidate so fast is my concern and has been. I don't think the PNA will kill us on this one, but the ULL being too strong may do just that.

I hear what your saying and we are still pretty far out in time so Im not jumping yet. The biggest difference is really the area in SE Canada. There is an ULL creating some confluence in the NE on the GFS where as the Euro and CMC do not.

Would be interested in seeing the full north america view. That’s a pretty big difference…

Also funny how the GFS is the one showing a massive PNA ridge. Normally it’s the other way around.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/namer/z500_anom/1671192000/1671732000-07zur70kq0w.png

TAMPICO - Long Range Thread 25.0 - Page 14 1671732000-KAItheZj4so

by **sroc4** Fri Dec 16, 2022 3:53 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:The PNA is much better on the Euro this run and digs the ULL more. That's good. On the bad side it consolidates the ULL and nothing runs out ahead of it to prevent a ridge from dipping into the east coast. That kills the antecedent air mass and will allow the ULL to pull north. That's bad. I'm just happy to see the PNA better whether or not the ULL doesn't consolidate so fast is my concern and has been. I don't think the PNA will kill us on this one, but the ULL being too strong may do just that.

I hear what your saying and we are still pretty far out in time so Im not jumping yet. The biggest difference is really the area in SE Canada. There is an ULL creating some confluence in the NE on the GFS where as the Euro and CMC do not.

Would be interested in seeing the full north america view. That’s a pretty big difference…

Also funny how the GFS is the one showing a massive PNA ridge. Normally it’s the other way around.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/namer/z500_anom/1671192000/1671732000-07zur70kq0w.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/nhemi/z500_anom/1671192000/1671732000-hn9IgWe407s.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/nhemi/z500_anom/1671192000/1671732000-oBGo1HpQpFE.png

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 16, 2022 4:02 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:

Can't tell if that includes the coast or not. looks like LI is just barely out of it.

by **heehaw453** Fri Dec 16, 2022 5:25 pm

The 18Z GFS closing off ULL in MS. No bueno for this area. Close off in GA much better. Taking steps towards other guidance quite possibly.

by **heehaw453** Fri Dec 16, 2022 5:26 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:

Can't tell if that includes the coast or not. looks like LI is just barely out of it.

Guidance keeps going like this that line will be moved to State College tomorrow's issue.

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 16, 2022 5:47 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:

Can't tell if that includes the coast or not. looks like LI is just barely out of it.
Guidance keeps going like this that line will be moved to State College tomorrow's issue.

Isn't it too far out to be worrying about the windshield wiper effect? I mean we have had storms where within 2 days we had no idea. is this one in a pattern that's more cut and dry and not likely to change and can be identified solidly this far out? Not going to sign out till I hear you guys doing so but I am not excited at this time from what I am hearing. And if it was going to ruin my 24th travel plans then I prefer it not happen, 22nd is fine.

by **hyde345** Fri Dec 16, 2022 6:08 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:

Can't tell if that includes the coast or not. looks like LI is just barely out of it.
Guidance keeps going like this that line will be moved to State College tomorrow's issue.
Isn't it too far out to be worrying about the windshield wiper effect? I mean we have had storms where within 2 days we had no idea. is this one in a pattern that's more cut and dry and not likely to change and can be identified solidly this far out? Not going to sign out till I hear you guys doing so but I am not excited at this time from what I am hearing. And if it was going to ruin my 24th travel plans then I prefer it not happen, 22nd is fine.

18z GFS just partially caved to Euro and CMC. Every major model has the storm west of us. It's looking highly unlikely we are going to see a snowstorm in our area.

by **phil155** Fri Dec 16, 2022 6:26 pm

We have had some really bad luck the past couple winters

by snowbunny Fri Dec 16, 2022 6:38 pm

No way throwing the towel in yet !!

by **jimv45** Fri Dec 16, 2022 6:43 pm

Yep Hyde saw that! The track to the west looking likely.

by **phil155** Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:49 pm

Definitely too soon to totally give up on this system in my very amateur opinion. Have tongive this till at least the end of the weekend

by **frank 638** Fri Dec 16, 2022 7:50 pm

As of right now we don’t know what’s going on yet or even if the storm is going to happen we all know A couple Weather models could say we’re gonna hit with snow then they say nothings gonna happen or it’s going to go to the west we don’t know yet it is way too early To make any predictions

by **Irish** Fri Dec 16, 2022 8:17 pm

The latest runs have absolutely torched this area! One day ago, temps were highs in the low to mid 30s, lows in the 20s. Now the highs are in the mid 40s and the low on Thursday is 40 and on Friday it's 18. Looks like a mostly rain event around me, finishing off with some Christmas mood flakes.

I know windshield wipering going on for sure. I look forward to see where this goes over the weekend.

by **hyde345** Fri Dec 16, 2022 9:32 pm

When ALL models are west of us and some have a snowstorm for the midwest you know it's over for us. I don't care if it's 6-7 days out. These things very rarely, if ever, trend east. We are not talking about just an inland storm. We are talking about a very dynamic storm that is forecast to set up shop 1000 miles west of us. It sucks but it is what it is.

by **Irish** Fri Dec 16, 2022 9:49 pm

hyde345 wrote:When ALL models are west of us and some have a snowstorm for the midwest you know it's over for us. I don't care if it's 6-7 days out. These things very rarely, if ever, trend east. We are not talking about just an inland storm. We are talking about a very dynamic storm that is forecast to set up shop 1000 miles west of us. It sucks but it is what it is.

In an earlier post Bernie called this exact track and said he could be wrong but he's not changing his prediction.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Dec 16, 2022 9:52 pm

What Hyde said, put a fork in it for everyone from Albany to Atlantic City, and I could care less if two days from now the GFS shows 30 inches over the entire area. GFS had my area with 15 inches two days ago for today. One inch later burn the damn model to the ground.

by **docstox12** Fri Dec 16, 2022 9:54 pm

Wow, all these models caved to the west so early? I am skeptical but time will tell.

by **hyde345** Fri Dec 16, 2022 9:59 pm

Irish wrote:
hyde345 wrote:When ALL models are west of us and some have a snowstorm for the midwest you know it's over for us. I don't care if it's 6-7 days out. These things very rarely, if ever, trend east. We are not talking about just an inland storm. We are talking about a very dynamic storm that is forecast to set up shop 1000 miles west of us. It sucks but it is what it is.

In an earlier post Bernie called this exact track and said he could be wrong but he's not changing his prediction.

Yes, he said this will cut and he is going to be correct.

by **hyde345** Fri Dec 16, 2022 10:02 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:What Hyde said, put a fork in it for everyone from Albany to Atlantic City, and I could care less if two days from now the GFS shows 30 inches over the entire area. GFS had my area with 15 inches two days ago for today. One inch later burn the damn model to the ground.

The GFS is even worse after the "upgrade". Horrible model.

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