Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

[hyde345]

When ALL models are west of us and some have a snowstorm for the midwest you know it's over for us. I don't care if it's 6-7 days out. These things very rarely, if ever, trend east. We are not talking about just an inland storm. We are talking about a very dynamic storm that is forecast to set up shop 1000 miles west of us. It sucks but it is what it is.

In an earlier post Bernie called this exact track and said he could be wrong but he's not changing his prediction.

Yes, he said this will cut and he is going to be correct.

[hyde345]

What Hyde said, put a fork in it for everyone from Albany to Atlantic City, and I could care less if two days from now the GFS shows 30 inches over the entire area. GFS had my area with 15 inches two days ago for today. One inch later burn the damn model to the ground.

The GFS is even worse after the "upgrade". Horrible model.

[docstox12]

When ALL models are west of us and some have a snowstorm for the midwest you know it's over for us. I don't care if it's 6-7 days out. These things very rarely, if ever, trend east. We are not talking about just an inland storm. We are talking about a very dynamic storm that is forecast to set up shop 1000 miles west of us. It sucks but it is what it is.

In an earlier post Bernie called this exact track and said he could be wrong but he's not changing his prediction.

Your right, Bernie did stick his neck out and I admire him for doing that.Adds some strength to the west solution.
Just going to have to nurse this 2 -3 inch snowpack on my property through the week and hope for a repeat of what we just had.An opening thump then a backside dusting.Anyway, it's only Friday and this event is almost 7 days away.I will believe Bernie if the models still show the west solution on Tuesday.Trying hard here for a White Christmas,LOL.

[jmanley32]

If it isn't snow it's go be more like a chilly hurricane those isobars are tight and bombing out over land. Gonna be damaging winds snd this year I will wish this solution away. I'm even.going to say they can keep it if it comes to that.

But on a completely reality note the threat of heavy rain snd intense winds does look a bit posdible. But after being stuck in today's crap I want snow or dry.

[aiannone]

https://twitter.com/accurayno/status/1603947154493538304?s=46&t=kjOd8CC6ZdJV2QYk76D4HQ

Bernie says no bueno

[Irish]

https://twitter.com/accurayno/status/1603947154493538304?s=46&t=kjOd8CC6ZdJV2QYk76D4HQ

Bernie says no bueno

Yup, that's the exact video that I think Scott or Mugs posted earlier.

[heehaw453]

As it looks right now no bueno. This has a better shot than what we just got because h5 is better.  It will come to to wave spacing and confluence lead energy can create as the ULL goes down the PNA ridge slope.  If it is able to develop slower this will be a big snowstorm especially NW of I95, if not, then yes it'll rain to Portland ME.

[heehaw453]

Well GFS at 00Z is a step in the right direction.  Note the confluence in Quebec part of the TPV lobe compressing the flow.  That's cold air in that thing and the further south it drops the better the antecedent air.  Also note the ULL is much weaker as this stage. This gives more time before that trough goes neutral and then negative and would allow for front end thump. Still flips but it's a much better chance.

[aiannone]

Good analysis here
https://youtu.be/eHqia66qAds

[hyde345]

GFS was a little wonky but was east and showed some snow. CMC and Ukie are both cutters. I suspect Euro will be as well.

[hyde345]

00z Euro is a massive midwest blizzard.

[mmanisca]

And so our winter of disappointment continues with the storm track cutting to our west…

[Irish]

And so our winter of disappointment continues with the storm track cutting to our west…

Yup, was really hoping for that elusive white Christmas. Oh well, on to the next one, while keeping an eye on any possible changes to this one.

[docstox12]

And so our winter of disappointment continues with the storm track cutting to our west…

Yup, was really hoping for that elusive white Christmas. Oh well, on to the next one, while keeping an eye on any possible changes to this one.

Alex post above shows that one model still has some hope for a better solution.Way too early, I think to put a fork in this one.I will give up on Tuesday night if the cutter solution holds.Not liking the pattern at all if it does.Since Nov 1, the central, North Central and NW Central have been getting snowstorm after snowstorm.Hope it breaks our way soon.

[phil155]

Trying to holdout hope but it is not looking good and feels like we are going to have yet another disappointment

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Once these things decide to cut west, even six days out they rarely adjust in our favor.

To misquote from Shawshank.
“ Hope is a bad thing, it can drive a man to madness when what he hopes for has little to no hope of ever coming to fruition”

For the greater good I am now Signing off for the season, I only seem to bring rain or slop.

[Frank_Wx]

I had high hopes for this one and to a certain extent I still do. However, hard to doubt the recent trends. I put an X on the major players that ultimately develop this storm to what it is - a powerful one. But each of these features are poorly placed for our area. They are all too west-based, which is why you’re seeing a storm cut to our west. The PNA-EPO ridge bridge needs to shift east, and upstream you’ll see a much more favorable result. The -NAO ridge is ok, but would have liked to see this feature also be a bit east to help with locking a 50/50 to our north. The end result shows a storm developing prematurely with heights rising along the east coast.


We would need to see major changes at 500mb to get this thing to not cut.

[heehaw453]

The Euro is holding that TPV energy back more and IMO because its PNA ridge is not as pumped which allows that energy to be held back and interact more with the energy that will be out storm.  You all see a lot of difference in this the first set of pictures?  Nope, but next set of pictures the GFS PNA depictment moves the initial piece more quickly allowing for less interaction which gives the storm slower development. Whichever model is handling the PNA better wins this battle.  The GEFS 06z run was nice with the movement of the TPV and its placement.

We should know by Sunday which camp will be right.  And if we miss out on this one, then better to know early than have models pull the rug out at D3. That disappoint is way worse.

[Frank_Wx]

A decent number of GFS Ensemble members showed a coastal last night. At least we have that to hang out hat on

[heehaw453]

I would take my chances with this h5 on 06Z GEFS and let the cards fall where they may.  Probably want that ridge to pump more east ward, but front end dump for sure.

[docstox12]

Once these things decide to cut west, even six days out they rarely adjust in our favor.

To misquote from Shawshank.
“ Hope is a bad thing, it can drive a man to madness when what he hopes for has little to no hope of ever coming to fruition”

For the greater good I am now Signing off for the season, I only seem to bring rain or slop.

My good man, patterns are made to be broken, and even though we are in a lousy one now,it could change.Years ago, when we met at a NYC restaurant, Frank pointed out the pattern would change in our favor and it did so big time.Historian Math will now when and where.
Even on what seems like a lost cause here, the GFS holds a little hope this could turn in our favor.

From a cockeyed optimist to you,LOL

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_HvBDorpzE

[billg315]

I'm not throwing in the towel on this one just yet. While the Euro seems to be a pretty clear cut cutter to our west (pardon the pun), the GFS is very close to being something very good for us. It would not take a huge change in the current GFS solution (push that Pacific ridge a bit east, track the coastal Low a bit east, etc...) for this to work out. So, for now, I will continue to watch with interest.

[heehaw453]

12Z GFS western ridge too far west and the ULL is too strong at this juncture.  Eastern ridge in place and this run is more inline with other guidance.  If we want some kind of front end dump on this the eastern ridge needs to not be as pronounced and that lead energy needs to clear it out.  Tomorrow is my day of reality calling with the chances on this one.

[heehaw453]

This is also a good example of numerical values for teleconnections being counter intuitive.  Looking at the PNA values next week gives no insight into where a ridge axis sets up and that's basically game set and match when it's too far west because that allows that ULL to amplify too far west and then that swings trough neutral and then negative giving for east coast folks the shaft.

[jmanley32]

Icky looks like this is going to be one heck of a storm for us but sadly not white. Cmc has 4 to 6 inches rain and 60mph plus wind gusts. I hope it just pulls so far west we miss it completely. I don't think we have anything to hold onto the gfs is terrible and won't win out. I really am getting too old for this cat snd mouse weather stuff, it just doesn't go our way too often. Rant over.

[frank 638]

Icky looks like this is going to be one heck of a storm for us but sadly not white. Cmc has 4 to 6 inches rain and 60mph plus wind gusts. I hope it just pulls so far west we miss it completely. I don't think we have anything to hold onto the gfs is terrible and won't win out. I really am getting too old for this cat snd mouse weather stuff, it just doesn't go our way too often. Rant over.

same here first they said snow for Thursday and Friday now rain on Friday with a high of 50 I am sick and tired of this every time they say snow has to be a process

[hyde345]

Once models start showing a cutter, especially one that goes into the Great Lakes, it's over. They lock on to that like a pitbull on a poodle. I had high hopes for white Christmas but that seems unlikely.

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