2023 Atlantic Tropics season

What Rb was pointing to - the Atlantic ridge maybe under modelled. Tis chart is veryuseful in showing how strong it should be.

GFS continues to be underdone with heights pic.twitter.com/v5FmqBd8rW

— StormchaserJS (@stormchaserjs) September 6, 2023

And it is further S and west than modelled in the supe end modelling

amugs wrote:Last night Ensembles members are close calls overall. the one concerning is the black circled ones:

Just a "bit" of a spread lol, enough that are close in to keep our eyes on this.

sroc4 wrote:As if there aren't enough moving parts...Fly in the ointment could be what that other system does and where it does it, can it impart some influence on Lee and or some of the other moving parts? 

Damn you beat me too it! I wanted to guess that new cane could do something possibly including my thought was could it push him more west not allowing him to depart as easily, but wasn't sure and didn't want to sound stupid. Glad to know I was actually having the same thought.

Off topic but has anyone noted that the last few posts on page 6 are repeated on the next page (7)? And this happens for me at least; on all topics.

It has to be strong. It is going ro use its debit card and fuel up with that HOT water. Where it goes…should be starting to show by late week. This storm is all dressed up and looking to dance

Levi just put out a video, seems to believe that it stays east of the US, stated a rare circumstance of maybe impacting New England (Cape Cod and Maine), but also re-iterated what all of you have been saying which is its far to long out to make any calls on when exactly that turn happens and what players impact him. I still think anyone from Carolinas and north are in play to some degree. BTW Levi is officially a meteorologist.

jmanley32 wrote:Levi just put out a video, seems to believe that it stays east of the US, stated a rare circumstance of maybe impacting New England (Cape Cod and Maine), but also re-iterated what all of you have been saying which is its far to long out to make any calls on when exactly that turn happens and what players impact him.  I still think anyone from Carolinas and north are in play to some degree. BTW Levi is officially a meteorologist.

Hey……what am I, chopped liver? haha jk, Jman.

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Levi just put out a video, seems to believe that it stays east of the US, stated a rare circumstance of maybe impacting New England (Cape Cod and Maine), but also re-iterated what all of you have been saying which is its far to long out to make any calls on when exactly that turn happens and what players impact him.  I still think anyone from Carolinas and north are in play to some degree. BTW Levi is officially a meteorologist.

Hey……what am I, chopped liver? haha jk, Jman.

No but aren't you already a meteorologist? So what's your take on 12z Euro? Still shows a cat 5 east of Bahamas.

Meteorologists. They grow up so fast!

Sniff cry sniff

We have Hurricane Lee, right on cue with NHC predictions.

Hurricane Lee going to travel through some really warm water. 85°.
Looks like it will pass north of the Hebert Box taking us in Florida out of play.
Going to be a monster for sure.

Joe Snow wrote:Hurricane Lee going to travel through some really warm water. 85°.
Looks like it will pass north of the Hebert Box taking us in Florida out of play.
Going to be a monster for sure.

Yeah FL and GOM are in the clear, even bahamas.

sroc4 wrote:As if there aren't enough moving parts...Fly in the ointment could be what that other system does and where it does it, can it impart some influence on Lee and or some of the other moving parts? 

Listen, Scott, we have plenty of moving parts already, we don’t need more lol so if you wouldn’t mind not adding any more wrenches to this monkey, that’d be great haha

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:As if there aren't enough moving parts...Fly in the ointment could be what that other system does and where it does it, can it impart some influence on Lee and or some of the other moving parts? 

Damn you beat me too it! I wanted to guess that new cane could do something possibly including my thought was could it push him more west not allowing him to depart as easily, but wasn't sure and didn't want to sound stupid. Glad to know I was actually having the same thought.

Dude, chances are if you have a question, at least one other person has that same question. Ask! Nobody here who I’m aware of would ever judge you, it’s how ya learn! Besides, talk about being judged, I’m probably the only goofball crazy enough to publicly state that at a lead time of ten days I think this will landfall along the East Coast lol so, I’d have way more scrutiny to face over that than you would with your question, yet here I am haha

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Levi just put out a video, seems to believe that it stays east of the US, stated a rare circumstance of maybe impacting New England (Cape Cod and Maine), but also re-iterated what all of you have been saying which is its far to long out to make any calls on when exactly that turn happens and what players impact him.  I still think anyone from Carolinas and north are in play to some degree. BTW Levi is officially a meteorologist.

Hey……what am I, chopped liver? haha jk, Jman.

No but aren't you already a meteorologist? So what's your take on 12z Euro? Still shows a cat 5 east of Bahamas.

Yeah, I have been (technically) for nine years by degree. But so too was Levi. I think he’s onto his doctorate now…?

Not taking anything away from him or his accomplishments, but whenever I’ve watched his videos, he doesn’t seem to stray much from whatever current guidance is, so it doesn’t really surprise me that’s his opinion. And that’s definitely not to say he’s wrong, either. Purely an observation on my own account.

jmanley32 wrote:We have Hurricane Lee, right on cue with NHC predictions.

Hereeeeeeeee……..weeeee………goooooo lol

For what it’s worth, last three runs of the GFS Suite notably stronger with the Atlantic ridging and therefore shift westward in Lee’s track. Multiple ensemble members from 18z strike New England now.

The evolution of the trough/cutoff bothers me, though; it looks like it’s displaced too far east…..on all modeling. Gotta see how that evolves. I like the idea, but the placement is off.

It looks ugly for us

I got a feeling

dkodgis wrote:It looks ugly for us

I got a feeling

that tonights gonna be a good night? A good good niight

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:As if there aren't enough moving parts...Fly in the ointment could be what that other system does and where it does it, can it impart some influence on Lee and or some of the other moving parts? 

Listen, Scott, we have plenty of moving parts already, we don’t need more lol so if you wouldn’t mind not adding any more wrenches to this monkey, that’d be great haha

Flash backs to Hurricane Joaquin come to mind here with this system to Lees east.  Every model had it barreling into the coast but there was an ULL off to the east that held him back long enough and kept him far enough south to allow the mean flow to the north to break down the ridge allowing for the escape route before influences by the ULL that had dropped into the SE. obv there any many differences here but I can see a scenario if this modeling is correct about this second system that it either similarly tugs on Lee slowing him down and holding him east allowing the mean flow to break down the ridge placing the mean trough axis too far east, and/or affecting the Atlantic ridge on the eastern flank in a way that breaks it down too soon to steer Lee far enough west.  
These images were from tracking Joaquin back in the day.

Me from the other day: “….I have had a history of giving these troughs too much ‘credit’ in the past when they are not overly anomalous/strong.”

Thanks for opening an old wound, brother lol what are friends for, right? Haha

This is a great post, though, and it’s cool to see you blowing the digital dust off that situation and these maps. The idea with the secondary system to the east is the same, but I think that’s where the similarity ends. The Northern Hemispheric pattern is very much different. In this case, I don’t think the Atlantic ridge will be breaking down for a few reasons:

1. Latent heat release from at least one, potentially two tropical cyclones, plus the anomalous warmth of the ocean

2. The progressive overall Northern Hemispheric pattern forces the anti-cyclonic wave break in western Canada that forces the ridge to roll forward and further enhance the western periphery of the Atlantic ridge as Lee is making the bend

3. I think the influence of the tropics (pseudo MJO phase 1-2 response) supports the ridging being there

There are other notable differences, as you already mentioned, but I wanted to key in on the difference with the Atlantic ridge, because I think that is the primary factor, followed by the evolution of the troughing over the east-central or eastern CONUS.

lang="en" dir="ltr">I continue to focus onstrength/location of trough Thu/Fri (next week) for Lee.Note the change in last 24 hours of guidance.latest run stronger & farther east vs last night where trof is weaken & farther west.This is why latest runs for lee is further east #windshieldwipereffect pic.twitter.com/GdS7y3RGlc— Bernie Rayno (@AccuRayno) September 7, 2023

All about the mid level trough. How strong it goes and if it tilts Neutral and its placement all key factors

I continue to focus onstrength/location of trough Thu/Fri (next week) for Lee.Note the change in last 24 hours of guidance.latest run stronger & farther east vs last night where trof is weaken & farther west.This is why latest runs for lee is further east #windshieldwipereffect pic.twitter.com/GdS7y3RGlc

— Bernie Rayno (@AccuRayno) September 7, 2023

Wow RI occuring full eye in a few hrs. I bet 11am topping 100mph. At 80 now. I know models will flip flop but my thinking is a close call but miss in between bermuda and US. Thpugh i see on yoitube znd other places furthest west people are saying is nortjern NE and canada. Will still give one heck of a wave show on beaches. But everything is still on table. Once a major cat 4 even 5 things could change drastically.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=13L&product=ir

Wow now progged to be 160mph cat 5 on 9th.