2023 Atlantic Tropics season
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
I am taking a direct hit between the Cape and the Delmarva off the table. In fact I'm going to to say anything S of Atlantic City is off my table for a direct landfall. I am going to put a direct US Landfall, Atlantic city through eastern Maine, at a 15-30% chance of happening from west to east respectively. The trend has been for a deeper and stronger trough and a weaker N Atlantic ridge which would increase the likely hood of a recurve. Now keep in mind there is still uncertainty. These are my thoughts as of the current information available; however as we know things are subject to change should the next 2-3days trend differently that the past 2-3 days. The timing of the trough lifting out relative to the system really holds the key. The only way it lifts out before Lee gains too much latitude is if he trends to the south side of the current forecast cone as stated above.
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
CONSISTENCY IN RIDGE STRENGTH HOLDS OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES AS #LEE MOVES NORTH THIS WEEK
— Mike Masco (@MikeMasco) September 10, 2023
You're just not going to get the model consistency you need right now for the overall surface track of #HurricaneLee for later this week. As you saw in yesterday's European model run the… pic.twitter.com/LAZb0RE3qw
Depiction of how Margot which is stronger and more west = breaks the ridge down in the North Atlantic thus weakening it and the Upper Level trough over the GL. The trough cant pull Lee closer to teh coast and the Ridge allows him in concert to lift further NE. A delicate balance but again one run. windshiled wiper effect at full play here? Slight chnages mean a sliver of space in our world but major changes for us overall.
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
Lee has increased a bit to 110mph, very close to Major again but I dunno why he looks so horrible (I know the shear but still, you would think this was a minimal cat 1 by looking at him), i mean a strong cat 2 you would think would have a eye and not just look like a massive blob.
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
jmanley32 wrote:Interesting Analysis above, Scott when you say cape do you mean cape may or cape cod, guessing you mean Cape May. He would have to start to take pretty far dive south or head NW when turning to pass 70-72 or close, I will say learning a lot about the drivers here in such a set up, seems Margot has a lot to do with it too. I see we already have our next fantasy run storm on GFS 06z around 25th (no not even gonna pay attention to that until Lee is out), gonna continue to be busy I think till the end of the season. One thing I really do not like abouit these are they are tracked for so long what has it been 5-6 days and another 8-10 potentially if he slows down even more.
Lee has increased a bit to 110mph, very close to Major again but I dunno why he looks so horrible (I know the shear but still, you would think this was a minimal cat 1 by looking at him), i mean a strong cat 2 you would think would have a eye and not just look like a massive blob.
No need to guess….
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
My NJ geography is bad I thought cape may was north of Atlantic city lol oppssroc4 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Interesting Analysis above, Scott when you say cape do you mean cape may or cape cod, guessing you mean Cape May. He would have to start to take pretty far dive south or head NW when turning to pass 70-72 or close, I will say learning a lot about the drivers here in such a set up, seems Margot has a lot to do with it too. I see we already have our next fantasy run storm on GFS 06z around 25th (no not even gonna pay attention to that until Lee is out), gonna continue to be busy I think till the end of the season. One thing I really do not like abouit these are they are tracked for so long what has it been 5-6 days and another 8-10 potentially if he slows down even more.
Lee has increased a bit to 110mph, very close to Major again but I dunno why he looks so horrible (I know the shear but still, you would think this was a minimal cat 1 by looking at him), i mean a strong cat 2 you would think would have a eye and not just look like a massive blob.
No need to guess….
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
jmanley32 wrote:My NJ geography is bad I thought cape may was north of Atlantic city lol oppssroc4 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Interesting Analysis above, Scott when you say cape do you mean cape may or cape cod, guessing you mean Cape May. He would have to start to take pretty far dive south or head NW when turning to pass 70-72 or close, I will say learning a lot about the drivers here in such a set up, seems Margot has a lot to do with it too. I see we already have our next fantasy run storm on GFS 06z around 25th (no not even gonna pay attention to that until Lee is out), gonna continue to be busy I think till the end of the season. One thing I really do not like abouit these are they are tracked for so long what has it been 5-6 days and another 8-10 potentially if he slows down even more.
Lee has increased a bit to 110mph, very close to Major again but I dunno why he looks so horrible (I know the shear but still, you would think this was a minimal cat 1 by looking at him), i mean a strong cat 2 you would think would have a eye and not just look like a massive blob.
No need to guess….
I actually meant Cape Hatteras to Atlantic City. Not cape May.
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
well that's not fair, there's 3 capes at least lol, anyways thanks for clear that up.sroc4 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:My NJ geography is bad I thought cape may was north of Atlantic city lol oppssroc4 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Interesting Analysis above, Scott when you say cape do you mean cape may or cape cod, guessing you mean Cape May. He would have to start to take pretty far dive south or head NW when turning to pass 70-72 or close, I will say learning a lot about the drivers here in such a set up, seems Margot has a lot to do with it too. I see we already have our next fantasy run storm on GFS 06z around 25th (no not even gonna pay attention to that until Lee is out), gonna continue to be busy I think till the end of the season. One thing I really do not like abouit these are they are tracked for so long what has it been 5-6 days and another 8-10 potentially if he slows down even more.
Lee has increased a bit to 110mph, very close to Major again but I dunno why he looks so horrible (I know the shear but still, you would think this was a minimal cat 1 by looking at him), i mean a strong cat 2 you would think would have a eye and not just look like a massive blob.
No need to guess….
I actually meant Cape Hatteras to Atlantic City. Not cape May.
I like how you marked the actual track versus the cones, so do you save all cones and NHC maps when tracking? That's a lot work and I am sure all of us can say we appreciate it. What are the chances are you putting on him suddenly taking a WSW track or due west pretty much today as NHC has the curve start as you said in 2-3 day time frame. Looks to me like NHC has been locked in on not even passing much futher than 67W and thats during the turn N-NW.
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
sroc4 wrote:So far between Wed and now Lee's track has rode on the north side of the NHC forecast cone. Third image was the 5am update this am. If we cont to see this trend over the next 2-3days then a miss is the most likely scenario. In my opinion if a direct landfall into NE is going to happen Lee has to start shifting to the south side of that avg track forecast. If it doesn't make it to that 70W line, or at least close, then it's unlikely IMHO that we see a direct landfall west of Maine.
I am taking a direct hit between the Cape and the Delmarva off the table. In fact I'm going to to say anything S of Atlantic City is off my table for a direct landfall. I am going to put a direct US Landfall, Atlantic city through eastern Maine, at a 15-30% chance of happening from west to east respectively. The trend has been for a deeper and stronger trough and a weaker N Atlantic ridge which would increase the likely hood of a recurve. Now keep in mind there is still uncertainty. These are my thoughts as of the current information available; however as we know things are subject to change should the next 2-3days trend differently that the past 2-3 days. The timing of the trough lifting out relative to the system really holds the key. The only way it lifts out before Lee gains too much latitude is if he trends to the south side of the current forecast cone as stated above.
Good post, buddy. One thing I’d counter, though, is with your last graphic (height trends at H5), to me that looks like the trough is being modeled faster than it was previously rather than the ridge itself being weaker. I’m honestly not sure which interpretation is correct, though. So I’m just offering a different point of view. Otherwise, though, there’s not much else I can add haha
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
rb924119 wrote:sroc4 wrote:
I am taking a direct hit between the Cape and the Delmarva off the table. In fact I'm going to to say anything S of Atlantic City is off my table for a direct landfall. I am going to put a direct US Landfall, Atlantic city through eastern Maine, at a 15-30% chance of happening from west to east respectively. The trend has been for a deeper and stronger trough and a weaker N Atlantic ridge which would increase the likely hood of a recurve. Now keep in mind there is still uncertainty. These are my thoughts as of the current information available; however as we know things are subject to change should the next 2-3days trend differently that the past 2-3 days. The timing of the trough lifting out relative to the system really holds the key. The only way it lifts out before Lee gains too much latitude is if he trends to the south side of the current forecast cone as stated above.
Good post, buddy. One thing I’d counter, though, is with your last graphic (height trends at H5), to me that looks like the trough is being modeled faster than it was previously rather than the ridge itself being weaker. I’m honestly not sure which interpretation is correct, though. So I’m just offering a different point of view. Otherwise, though, there’s not much else I can add haha
Both might be correct. As far as the snap shot that I posted it is deeper and perhaps faster. Result? Ridge is weaker; however, weaker for that snapshot maybe. If it moves out faster AND/OR Lee is delayed and or further S and misses it, then its latent heat release pumps the ridge back up again in the wake of the departing trough.
Like you said the GFS just showed a similar soln to yesterdays Euro where it misses the trough, pumps the ridge in its wake leading to a more N to NNW track.
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
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WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
and i think sandy was showing that early on in models and look where she ended up. Not saying this go do same but who knows. And that windfield jeeze. Its certainly as big as sandys was or close.rb924119 wrote:FWIW 12z ICON Sandy’s into Rhode Island/Massachusetts lol at 00z it was just intonNova Scotia…..smh.
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
Again as echoed it is a delicate set up. Hours can mean a NW track or N NW or NNE.
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
GreyBeard wrote:Hey Coachgriff, guess I saw what you saw. Like you said, fantasyland but still...
Yeah GreyBeard….my mother is from central PA…I have heard numerous stories about Tropical Storm Agnes….this looks pretty close to a Chesapeake Bay landfall….the flooding from Agnes was epic.
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
I am really hoping this does not verify and I am sure we will see the models do different things over the next 2 weeks but this would be very bad. This does remind me that I need to look into a generac
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
Please keep this in banter, let's concentrate on one storm at a time, this thread is going to get busier as we get closer. Thanks!
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
...And a N/NNW track toward Long Island or e. New England becomes more of a risk, as shown by the 12z GEFS. We also need to consider the possibility that #Lee's interaction with the strong jet streak to its N helps it to maintain strength instead of weakening over cooler waters pic.twitter.com/UixUd62I9I
— Yaakov Cantor (@yconsor) September 10, 2023
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Re: 2023 Atlantic Tropics season
3 people posted about it above and two remarks on it why am I targeted? I did post it in banter and then saw it here above.Dunnzoo wrote:
Please keep this in banter, let's concentrate on one storm at a time, this thread is going to get busier as we get closer. Thanks!
Last edited by jmanley32 on Sun Sep 10, 2023 4:00 pm; edited 1 time in total
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