August 2023 Observations and Discussion

Was 50 degrees early this morning.Partly cloudy, slight breeze ,low humidity.Noticing some color change on the early maples up here and acorns bombing me in the head when I go out to the mailbox.

Had a T Storm last night, loud thunder and torrential rain.

Another winter-related post to keep us cool(er) than we have been so far this month folks, the EURO seasonals came out last night, and for a model that can’t find cold air in its extended range, HOT DIGGITY they are SCRUMPTIOUS!! Lock us in from November through presumably March. I said that I really liked the idea of a fast and strong start in November and December in my earlier post, but I also said that I wasn’t sure about whether or not we could lock in through the rest of the season. I’m still not sure of that, and quite honestly, I am waiting to see how El Niño region 1.2 evolves between now and October before I will likely feel comfortable enough to actually make my stand on a forecast. But, as of now, that is the ONLY piece I am waiting for, because quite honestly, everything else, including modeling (which is worth the least, but still something), is looking pretty darn good. I’m pretty excited, gang, I won’t lie. But again, Niño region 1.2 is the indicator I will be watching very closely.

Carry on

rb924119 wrote:Another winter-related post to keep us cool(er) than we have been so far this month folks, the EURO seasonals came out last night, and for a model that can’t find cold air in its extended range, HOT DIGGITY they are SCRUMPTIOUS!! Lock us in from November through presumably March. I said that I really liked the idea of a fast and strong start in November and December in my earlier post, but I also said that I wasn’t sure about whether or not we could lock in through the rest of the season. I’m still not sure of that, and quite honestly, I am waiting to see how El Niño region 1.2 evolves between now and October before I will likely feel comfortable enough to actually make my stand on a forecast. But, as of now, that is the ONLY piece I am waiting for, because quite honestly, everything else, including modeling (which is worth the least, but still something), is looking pretty darn good. I’m pretty excited, gang, I won’t lie. But again, Niño region 1.2 is the indicator I will be watching very closely.

Carry on

Saw that.  Encouraging for sure.  The Sub Aleutian Low getting stronger as we head through the three months is what I like most to be honest. Everything else down stream will fall into place if that sets up shop in that location for the season.

Dec-Jan-Feb

Little subsurface cool pool at about 150m developing around 160E longitude.  See what happens there.  

And 1.2 seems to have begun to moderate a bit in August, and the center of the warmest anomalies just starting to "maybe" shift westward.  Ray I know that's what you're watching for.  FWIW Nino region 1.2 is the most shllow and can fluctuate quite dramatically and quite rapidly so grain of salt with changes for now.  Like Ray said must wait until Sept Oct and see where we sit.  

Go west young man...Go West.  We want you to grow up into Mr. Modoki by late Fall please

phil155 wrote:Is this through next monday 8/14?

yes