Re: August 2023 Observations and Discussion

by **phil155** Mon Aug 07, 2023 3:19 pm

looks like the possibility of severe weather is increasing for the area, according to spc at least

by **dkodgis** Mon Aug 07, 2023 3:52 pm

Darker here in upper Orange. No wind or rain yet. Woke up to an inch in the gauge at 6:30 am when it was drizzling. I suspect it will get ugly fast BUT the radar is clear except for 35 miles. NW from here

It’s wait and see. 75 now and humid. Wind out of the south at 18 mph but I don’t see that here. Weather app is showing rain, thunderstorms and I don’t see that either. So it is off to the garage to set up a monitoring position and monitor the weather with the help of a few Beck beers.

by **frank 638** Mon Aug 07, 2023 4:14 pm

Tornado watches are going up for New Jersey and Pennsylvania

by **phil155** Mon Aug 07, 2023 4:49 pm

It looks like the western half of NJ. I guess hey are thinking the storms would be weakening a bit as they move towards the eastern part of the state as we lose some of the daytime heating even though this is a more synoptically driven event?

by **jmanley32** Mon Aug 07, 2023 6:59 pm

Severe t-storm watch went up for all of eastern jersey NYC area and western, CT. whoever is in front or along that bowing line in south and central NJ is probably going to see some winds in excess of 70mph. That whole line is pretty brutal looking, i think it holds together to some degree.

by **jmanley32** Mon Aug 07, 2023 7:00 pm

phil155 wrote:It looks like the western half of NJ. I guess hey are thinking the storms would be weakening a bit as they move towards the eastern part of the state as we lose some of the daytime heating even though this is a more synoptically driven event?

For tornadoes, that does not put the rest of the area out of the risk of severe winds or a brief tornado per the watch that just went up. That beastly line is working into western NJ now, the wind damage reports to the west are expansive.

by **jmanley32** Mon Aug 07, 2023 7:04 pm

If you watch radar the whole thing is actually moving to the NE and the bow is trying to push out more to the north of it, should be interesting next several hours. Everyone stay safe.

https://sirocco.accuweather.com/nxssa_r1_h_500x620d/r1h/inxr1kphla_h.gif

by **phil155** Mon Aug 07, 2023 7:08 pm

Tornado watch extended to the east. I agree that bowing line looks very intense and there will be some straight line wind damage for many in the path of that

by **dkodgis** Mon Aug 07, 2023 7:09 pm

Phila’s gonna catch hell

by **jmanley32** Mon Aug 07, 2023 7:13 pm

Wow, most of the line is moving 55-65 mph to the NE per the storm warnings, thats nuts and will cause very intense winds, wonder how far east it will get.

August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Mcd18910

Mesoscale Discussion 1897
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0557 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023

Areas affected...New Jersey

Concerning...Tornado Watch 605...

Valid 072257Z - 080030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 605 continues.

SUMMARY...Squall line will surge across New Jersey this evening.
Damaging winds are the primary risk, though a brief tornado or two
remains possible.

DISCUSSION...Primary short-wave trough has advanced into the upper
OH Valley, extending from southeast ON into eastern OH. MCS has
evolved well ahead of this feature with a surging squall line now
advancing across southeast PA/northern DE. Latest radar data
suggests an MCV has evolved over Chester County PA and this is
indicative of the organized nature of this cluster. With surface
temperatures in the lower 80s across NJ, MLCAPE values are
seasonally high with values around 1500 J/kg immediately ahead of
the surging bow. Leading edge of the bow should track across central
NJ over the next hour or so, eventually approaching western portions
of Long Island with an attendant wind threat.

..Darrow.. 08/07/2023

by **jmanley32** Mon Aug 07, 2023 7:29 pm

Wind is really picking up here and the storms are not even close....

by **frank 638** Mon Aug 07, 2023 9:10 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Wind is really picking up here and the storms are not even close....

windy by me and just started to rain nothing crazy . It looks like the storms are weakening

by **docstox12** Tue Aug 08, 2023 6:05 am

Nothing up here of note, a little thunder and a shower.Oddly, my power went out from 9 to 9:30.Guess the line weakend or broke up by the time it got to my area.Cloudy, 68, calm winds.

by **dkodgis** Tue Aug 08, 2023 6:55 am

Nothing happened here other than thunder and lightning and barely any rain. Gauge barely had any water in it. I was surprised. It got darker early but no storm

by **phil155** Tue Aug 08, 2023 9:16 am

had some very loud thunder last night, one sounded like an explosion

by **rb924119** Wed Aug 09, 2023 8:15 am

sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Another winter-related post to keep us cool(er) than we have been so far this month folks, the EURO seasonals came out last night, and for a model that can’t find cold air in its extended range, HOT DIGGITY they are SCRUMPTIOUS!! Lock us in from November through presumably March. I said that I really liked the idea of a fast and strong start in November and December in my earlier post, but I also said that I wasn’t sure about whether or not we could lock in through the rest of the season. I’m still not sure of that, and quite honestly, I am waiting to see how El Niño region 1.2 evolves between now and October before I will likely feel comfortable enough to actually make my stand on a forecast. But, as of now, that is the ONLY piece I am waiting for, because quite honestly, everything else, including modeling (which is worth the least, but still something), is looking pretty darn good. I’m pretty excited, gang, I won’t lie. But again, Niño region 1.2 is the indicator I will be watching very closely.

Carry on

Saw that. Encouraging for sure. The Sub Aleutian Low getting stronger as we head through the three months is what I like most to be honest. Everything else down stream will fall into place if that sets up shop in that location for the season.

Dec-Jan-Feb

https://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/ecmwf_seasonal_monthly_avgs_avg_nhemi_z500_anom_month_mostrecent_1388800(4).png

https://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/ecmwf_seasonal_monthly_avgs_avg_nhemi_z500_anom_month_mostrecent_4067200(1).png

https://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/ecmwf_seasonal_monthly_avgs_avg_nhemi_z500_anom_month_mostrecent_6745600.png

There’s a lot to like about this verbatim. The 70/70 ridge is one of my coal mine canaries. And the fact that’s clearly indicated, on top of the fact that the rest of the depicted pattern fits with the presence of that feature, has me more confident than I otherwise would be that the model may be picking up on the general theme. In addition to that, it cools ENSO 1.2 by/during October relative to the other regions, which is HUGELY important in helping to set up the pattern thst its depicting in the Northern Hemisphere starting in December. So, all around, the model agrees with itself all the way around. There are no contradictions anywhere. I’d just like to see 1.2 cool sooner so that we can start really setting things in November rather than have to wait until December……it’s selfish, I know haha

by **amugs** Wed Aug 09, 2023 11:21 am

EF 3 WHOOAA!! IN NY.

August 2023 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Image_27

by **dkodgis** Wed Aug 09, 2023 11:51 am

A derecho?

by **sroc4** Wed Aug 09, 2023 1:42 pm

dkodgis wrote:A derecho?

A tornado. And that was way upstate NY.

https://duckduckgo.com/?q=turin+ny+map&atb=v341-1&t=chromentp&ia=web&iaxm=maps

by **sroc4** Wed Aug 09, 2023 1:44 pm

amugs wrote:EF 3 WHOOAA!! IN NY.

Am I reading that right? 700YARDS wide at its max width? Wozer. And lasted for 16miles

by **dkodgis** Wed Aug 09, 2023 1:46 pm

Yes. I read that as 700 feet. 700 yards. 40% of a mile wide. I see what you mean, Scott

by **weatherwatchermom** Thu Aug 10, 2023 4:53 pm

pouring out..just under an inch of rain this afternoon 70*

PS...don't get me wrong..so happy for my son and his friends..this next stage is what we have been preparing them for all their lives..it is time to let them fly....my mind(and my girlfriends minds) get it....not seeing their faces every day is the hard part.and we know just like those before us..we will survive....we are starting a club..no more pto, book fair, pumpkin patch.swim team, track momming...but we are thinking a bi weekly breakfast club to keep up on what is going on with US..post kids..lol and oooh catching up on sleep..no more having to get up at dawn to make sure they are out of the house...there are positive points to all this change..lol

by **sroc4** Thu Aug 10, 2023 6:05 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:pouring out..just under an inch of rain this afternoon 70*

PS...don't get me wrong..so happy for my son and his friends..this next stage is what we have been preparing them for all their lives..it is time to let them fly....my mind(and my girlfriends minds) get it....not seeing their faces every day is the hard part.and we know just like those before us..we will survive....we are starting a club..no more pto, book fair, pumpkin patch.swim team, track momming...but we are thinking a bi weekly breakfast club to keep up on what is going on with US..post kids..lol and oooh catching up on sleep..no more having to get up at dawn to make sure they are out of the house...there are positive points to all this change..lol

Mom my two are just starting their teenage years 13 & 14. My oldest is starting HS in the fall. I cant believe how fast that went. My wife and I already know that we will be in your shoes in the next blink of an eye and it scares the crap out of us as well.

by **dkodgis** Thu Aug 10, 2023 7:03 pm

My son is 20 next month and a junior at Univ at Buffalo. He has matured nicely. He is doing what he is supposed to: summer job, money in the bank, money in the market and doing well, a credit card with a zero balance each month. He cooks, cleans up, and is neat. A level head. Two years ago we were all crying when we left him. He goes to the gym regularly. Our daughter is 16 in Oct. it’s like talking to. 30 year old. Does everything right. Big sports star. We now know our kids are on their way. As you say Scott, we are scared too but mostly because it will be just us and ha ha we are not ready for that. It went really fast but we see our two being the people we always wanted to be. And now my wife and I grow old. I still smell perfume but she smells liniment.

by **docstox12** Thu Aug 10, 2023 8:03 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:pouring out..just under an inch of rain this afternoon 70*

PS...don't get me wrong..so happy for my son and his friends..this next stage is what we have been preparing them for all their lives..it is time to let them fly....my mind(and my girlfriends minds) get it....not seeing their faces every day is the hard part.and we know just like those before us..we will survive....we are starting a club..no more pto, book fair, pumpkin patch.swim team, track momming...but we are thinking a bi weekly breakfast club to keep up on what is going on with US..post kids..lol and oooh catching up on sleep..no more having to get up at dawn to make sure they are out of the house...there are positive points to all this change..lol

This reminds me of when my Mom and Dad dropped me off at Stevens Tech for a year living in the dorms and my Mom crying.Never forget Mom that we sons will always love our Mom's no matter what and time will never change that.I was blessed to have my Mom many years as she made it to 100 when she passed two years ago.Mom's and Sons have a special magic love that never will be broken!Best of luck to yours,Mom.

by **docstox12** Thu Aug 10, 2023 8:06 pm

Blink of an eye Doc, so true! Enjoy the days with them.
Damian, hilarious the linament line.You have done a magnificent job raising two fine young people! Meeting you once for lunch I can see why.
So glad reading these posts of fine young people when all you read is negativity.God be with them all!

by **frank 638** Sun Aug 13, 2023 11:10 am

Early this morning around 2 o’clock woke up too crazy loud thunderstorms Nothing crazy just heavy rain, but it was a good lightning show thank God the humidity is going down a perfect day to make tomato sauce

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