August 2023 Observations and Discussion

sroc4 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:pouring out..just under an inch of rain this afternoon 70*


PS...don't get me wrong..so happy for my son and his friends..this next stage is what we have been preparing them for all their lives..it is time to let them fly....my mind(and my girlfriends minds) get it....not seeing their faces every day is the hard part.and we know just like those before us..we will survive....we are starting a club..no more pto, book fair, pumpkin patch.swim team, track momming...but we are thinking a bi weekly breakfast club to keep up on what is going on with US..post kids..lol and oooh catching up on sleep..no more having to get up at dawn to make sure they are out of the house...there are positive points to all this change..lol

Mom my two are just starting their teenage years 13 & 14.  My oldest is starting HS in the fall.  I cant believe how fast that went.  My wife and I already know that we will be in your shoes in the next blink of an eye and it scares the crap out of us as well.  

My motto is" time is a thief" enjoy every second!

Picked up 1.14" overnight.

Keep that warm water moving west and cooling 1.2 down even further.

Friday another trough - looks like a fall map, troughs keep getting more South as the summer progresses now.



Then after a few days of AN another trough builds in next week Tuesday


This would be so refreshing if it happens next Tuesday Night

.12" overnight.
Total is 1.32" from the rains.
Monthly 2.23" so far.

Summer of 2009 was like this if I recall.

This is going to feel splendid strating tomorrow evening!!
Dew Points are tanking!

This will feel excellent (Dew points) pic.twitter.com/eTA3ua3ovU

— Will C (@weatherwilly) August 17, 2023

Good morning everyone- yesterdays temps and the upcoming week’s forecast of highs in the upper 70’s have made me stir in my summertime hibernation. I absolutely love the transition from summer to fall and now it seems that it might be just a few weeks away! That said, this summer sure has been a mild one, at least down at the Shore.

SENJsnowman wrote:Good morning everyone- yesterdays temps and the upcoming week’s forecast of highs in the upper 70’s have made me stir in my summertime hibernation. I absolutely love the transition from summer to fall and now it seems that it might be just a few weeks away! That said, this summer sure has been a mild one, at least down at the Shore.

but we first have to get over the quick bump in the road..tomorrow supposed to be 90 lol this morning is glorious and we hit a low of 60 its been such a rainy summer...my lawn is still green in August..

rb924119 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:YES SIR!!!

Well, this was short-lived 🥺  hahaha

We still have plenty of time, though, the next ten days or so look to continue support for the warming based on expected surface pressure anomalies.

can you explain quickly what this all means..

Fall like end of the month into Labor Day weekend.

weatherwatchermom wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:YES SIR!!!

Well, this was short-lived 🥺  hahaha

We still have plenty of time, though, the next ten days or so look to continue support for the warming based on expected surface pressure anomalies.

can you explain quickly what this all means..

Hey Mom since Ray hasn't been on since the post I figured Id quickly explain.  When in an El Nino year, esp a mod or strong one, one of the most highly correlated with cold and snowy winters for the NE, is when we have what's called a Modoki (pronounced Mo-DA-Kai I believe) El Nino.  
https://earthscience.stackexchange.com/questions/2822/what-is-el-ni%c3%b1o-modoki#2826

This means that the warm tropical pac SSTA are aligned where the warmest anomalies are in the middle of the Trop Pac.  Now when looking at the region known as the Tropical Pacific there are  there are four "Nino" regions.  Nino 1+2, Nino 3, Nino 3.4, and Nino 4.  Here is a basic look at where they are located.  


So essentially when the warmest anomalies are located around Nino 3.4, which if you look at the map above overlaps the eastern Nino 4 and western Nino 3 regions this would be termed a Modoki El Nino.  

On the opposite side of the spectrum when the warmest anomalies tend to live in the eastern Top Pac , ie: Nino 1+2 (see map above), this is highly correlated with warmer and below normal snow anomalies in the NE.  The current SSTA alignment has the warmest anomalies in the eastern Trop Pac.  Ray wants to see Nino 1.2 begin to cool as we head into and deeper into the Fall while Nino 3.4 cont to warm, at least a bit.  Going back to this images (see below), the exact orientation of where the warmest Trop Pac SSTA alighn dictates the larger scale upward and downward forcing, Walker Cell configuration, which when combined with many of the other large scale pattern drivers and enhancers that we have discussed in years past dictates where the 500mb trough and ridges line up over the northern hemisphere.  


Some things to keep in mind.  Nino 1+2 is very shallow relative to the est of the regions, and is up against western S America.  This allows for a much easier time fortemp swings to occur due to in large part from the upwelling that we discussed in prev discussions.  So any temp changes we see now, for better or worse, should be taken with a grain of salt as within a week or two you can often times see major swings.  So for now we simply watch the trends.  



Here is Nino 3.4:



And here is Nino 1.2



And here is the link to follow these graphs yourself through the rest of summer and fall:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

sroc4 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:YES SIR!!!

Well, this was short-lived 🥺  hahaha

We still have plenty of time, though, the next ten days or so look to continue support for the warming based on expected surface pressure anomalies.

can you explain quickly what this all means..

Hey Mom since Ray hasn't been on since the post I figured Id quickly explain.  When in an El Nino year, esp a mod or strong one, one of the most highly correlated with cold and snowy winters for the NE, is when we have what's called a Modoki (pronounced Mo-DA-Kai I believe) El Nino.  
https://earthscience.stackexchange.com/questions/2822/what-is-el-ni%c3%b1o-modoki#2826

This means that the warm tropical pac SSTA are aligned where the warmest anomalies are in the middle of the Trop Pac.  Now when looking at the region known as the Tropical Pacific there are  there are four "Nino" regions.  Nino 1+2, Nino 3, Nino 3.4, and Nino 4.  Here is a basic look at where they are located.  


So essentially when the warmest anomalies are located around Nino 3.4, which if you look at the map above overlaps the eastern Nino 4 and western Nino 3 regions this would be termed a Modoki El Nino.  

On the opposite side of the spectrum when the warmest anomalies tend to live in the eastern Top Pac , ie: Nino 1+2 (see map above), this is highly correlated with warmer and below normal snow anomalies in the NE.  The current SSTA alignment has the warmest anomalies in the eastern Trop Pac.  Ray wants to see Nino 1.2 begin to cool as we head into and deeper into the Fall while Nino 3.4 cont to warm, at least a bit.  Going back to this images (see below), the exact orientation of where the warmest Trop Pac SSTA alighn dictates the larger scale upward and downward forcing, Walker Cell configuration, which when combined with many of the other large scale pattern drivers and enhancers that we have discussed in years past dictates where the 500mb trough and ridges line up over the northern hemisphere.  


Some things to keep in mind.  Nino 1+2 is very shallow relative to the est of the regions, and is up against western S America.  This allows for a much easier time fortemp swings to occur due to in large part from the upwelling that we discussed in prev discussions.  So any temp changes we see now, for better or worse, should be taken with a grain of salt as within a week or two you can often times see major swings.  So for now we simply watch the trends.  



Here is Nino 3.4:



And here is Nino 1.2



And here is the link to follow these graphs yourself through the rest of summer and fall:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

Thank you!! I will definitely follow...I will have some time on my hands...lol well, lots of projects planned to keep me busy...but will have time to educate myself on this...Have a great day!! and thank you again!