Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

[amugs]

WOW! JAN AND FEB!

[rb924119]

I have nothing of value to add, not a forecast, not a pork butt... nothing.   However, does anyone else wonder if rb is human?  That dude is absolutely brilliant! I read... rather I should say, sounds come out of my mouth as I decode letters from words in sentences he typed but most of it is just noise and not comprehended.  I wish I could understand the words that are coming out of his mouth!  I can't even say well done to him without lying.

🤪    

Thanks, Irish, but I am indeed only a mortal haha if you want a further explanation of something that any of us say or have said in the past, please don’t ever hesitate to ask us. This forum is not only a place for enthusiasts of all ages and levels of knowledge to discuss the weather, but it’s also a great place to learn. And believe me, I’m pretty sure that I can speak for all of us, even our more experienced posters, when I say that we are ALL still learning, from both our own research and each other

[rb924119]

IMO the only thing saving us from a really warm December will be the AO and to some degree NAO. The AO/NAO helps drive whatever cold air is in the Canadian/Greenland arctic southward. That's why you'll see troughs tend to get pinned on the eastern US and H pressure tend to nose down to Quebec and funnel in colder air at times.

Observed and progged AO


With this kind of trough in eastern US I would expect much colder temps than what we had towards end of November. But the coldest air is in Siberia and the EPO+ (trough in Alaska) is helping lock it in place.

End of November 2023 500mb



If you recall from last December we actually had a favorable NAM state with good EPO- which resulted in significantly BN temps. Of course no discreet threat worked out. In December it requires longer wave lengths for s/w's to amp up and westerns trough (PNA-) was a big reason nothing worked out.

Once nina really kicked in and amped up the SER it was lights out until some well NW got snowfall in March.

I guess the main point to this post is nothing stands alone with our sensible weather and it's very delicate balance between a good winter and a dud. When you start noticing something really hostile to winter weather, then pay attention to it as that usually disturbs that delicate balance in one way or another.

What I find great about the board is areas where my knowledge is lighter gets enhanced every year.

December 2022 500 mb

Great post! And I largely agree with you. As sroc said, I think we wait until the end of Week 3 (roughly post-20th) before there’s any substantial return to a consistent below-average temperature regime. But, I definitely do not think that we torch (in the time-mean) up to that point. I think we generally end up near, maybe slightly above average (i.e. <1°F above average) as we have a changeable pattern with roughly equivalent durations and magnitudes of above and below average temperatures, and then get progressively colder as the pattern evolves and becomes better aligned so that the month of December ends up near average (i.e. -0.5°F to 0.5°F). I’ll expand on this a little bit more in my response to mugsy’s post.

You’re definitely right, though; any change to the harmony and the whole progression can change.

[rb924119]

I'm just going to throw my two cents in here because the two of you (sroc and heehaw) have a great discussion going. Since it's not usually a good idea to "bury the lead", I'll start with my opinion and then elaborate:

I agree with heehaw with respect to the current MJO outlook - I think that most of the current guidance is exaggerating the signal, which is negatively affecting the output in the extended range (EXCEPT ECMWF Extended Ensemble, where most members collapse into the null phase upon entering Phase 4). However, I disagree that December will finish above average with respect to temperatures (i.e. >+1ºF). I think we go back and forth for the front ten days or so of the month, and then progressively get colder. To preface the following discussion, I am considering a neutral ENSO base state given the large disconnect between the ONI (Oceanic Niño Index, which only considers the state of the ocean temperatures) and MEI (Multivariate ENSO Index, which accounts for the atmospheric and oceanic states).

For reference, here's a MJO Phase chart:



And here is the ECMWF Extended Ensemble forecast:



To start off, here's why I still expect the MJO signal to collapse as it continues through Phase 3 and then into Phase 4:

1.

Note the substantially below-average SST anomalies in the eastern Bay of Bengal coming into the Maritime Continent. Per the map above, this is in the MJO Phase 3-4 area. Cooler water helps to inhibit convection through two different mechanisms: 1. increases surface pressure/divergence/stability relative to surrounding areas that have above-average SST anomalies 2. decreases latent heat/moisture fluxes from the ocean's surface into the lower atmosphere.

Also note the relatively warmer SST anomalies across the central and eastern Pacific, western Indian, and all of the tropical Atlantic Oceans compared to the above-average anomalies located in the Maritime Continent. This also helps to enhance the above mechanisms and their effects.

2. Take a look at the observed and forecast velocity potential at the 200 hPa level (green indicates divergence at 200 hPa, brown indicates convergence at 200 hPa. Divergence at this level is associated with convergence/lower pressure at the lower levels, and therefore, forcing for ascent. Convergence at this level is associated with divergence/higher pressure at the lower levels, and therefore, forcing for subsidence.). Notice that as we go forward a few days, there is strong support for divergence at the 200 hPa level from about 120ºW longitude through about 60ºE longitude, which corresponds to MJO phases 1 and 2 per the chart above (which generally correspond to below-average temperatures for the eastern U.S. in Phase 1, moderating in Phase 2). Also notice that there is strong support for convergence at the 200 hPa level from about 60ºE longitude through about 150ºE, and then again from about 180ºE/W (International Dateline) to about 120ºW., which generally correspond to MJO phases 3 through 8 (which generally correspond to above-average temperatures for the eastern U.S. in Phases 3 through 6, and below average temperatures in Phases 7 and .





3. Similarly to the (2) above, take a look at the precipitable water anomalies at 200 hPa. Notice how the positive anomalies (which imply a sufficiently moist atmospheric column and conducive environment for deep tropical convection) overlap nearly perfectly with the same areas of divergence at this same level, while the negative anomalies (which imply a sufficiently dry atmospheric column and non-conducive environment for deep tropical convection) also nearly perfectly align with the same areas of convergence at this same level.



4. As support to the above three points, here's the current infrared satellite imagery of the globe; notice how there is notably deeper convection in the western Bay of Bengal (85ºE longitude and further west) as well as along and east of 160ºE longitude. Both of these areas correspond to the areas mentioned above where the warmest SST anomalies, 200 hPa divergence and moist atmospheric column all overlap. Between these two regions, however, there is a relative lack of any deep convection over the Maritime Continent.



Additionally, there are currently two active Invest areas conveniently located in these same regions:



The one in the western Bay of Bengal is likely the reason why the MJO forecasts are showing an increased amplitude in MJO Phase 2. Meanwhile, the one located near 165ºE longitude (approximately MJO Phase 7, associated with an eastward propagating Kelvin wave) will recurve toward MJO Phase 8 as it strengthens, which will likely appear as an enhanced Phase 7/8 on MJO forecasts in subsequent model runs.

Based on the above information, I think the models are picking up on the Invest in the western Bay of Bengal, but are then carrying that signal forward with time instead of diminishing it through MJO Phases 4 through 7, as would typically be expected based on the several factors present in and over the Maritime Continent that will destructively interfere with the MJO pulse and the deep convection associated with it. I would then expect to see it start regaining amplitude into Phase 8 and then re-emerge from the Null Phase as it gets closer to Phase 1 sometime around Week 3 of December (mid-month and beyond). That said, the MJO plots that we look at do not only incorporate the convective signal, but also the associated atmospheric circulations, so it's possible that those plots still appear to indicate a rotation with minimal amplitude just outside of the Null Phase, but even if they do, I do not expect the same type of atmospheric response. Without the deep convection to add abundant latent heat fluxes through its passage over the Maritime Continent, its input to the overall system will be extremely muted in my opinion, which brings me to the second point of my discussion; that I do not see December averaging out to be significantly above average with respect to temperature.

Based on the above assumption, I expect the pattern to get progressively colder for the eastern U.S. as we approach and then eclipse approximately Week 3 of December (mid-month and beyond), with generally near average temperatures as a whole through the first half of the month, maybe biased slightly cool.

As secondary supporting evidence, all three major model ensembles (GEFS, GEPS, EPS) all have an east-based NAO block re-firing by the end of Week 1, however, they differ on how it progresses, which, therefore, impacts our sensible weather. The GEFS and EPS both keep it stagnated as an east-based block with little if any westward propagation through the end of Week 2, though the GEFS try hinting that some of it tries to bleed westward. The GEPS doesn't do this; it steadily retrogrades the block, which is the evolution that I favor based on the past precedent of this entire year. Each time blocking has initiated in the Atlantic domain, it has retrograded all the way back to the western shore of Hudson Bay before decaying, and I see no reason that it wouldn't again. As a result, this would lead to yet another storm opportunity between about December 11th-15th, as the +PNA and Hudson Bay ridge become established again. Another red flag to me that the GEPS is on the right track is that all three ensembles have a strong signal for a 70ºN/70ºE ridge which is also associated with the initiation of the east-based NAO blocking, and is one of the pillars that I look for with respect to "anchoring" a pattern. Typically, when there is a ridge in this position, there is a corresponding trough over the eastern U.S. due to how atmospheric wavelengths are during the cold season. It's not always the case, but anecdotally, it usually seems to work pretty well. Similarly, if there is a trough in that location, then usually ridging tries to develop over the eastern U.S.

Lastly, there is an ongoing drop of the SST anomalies in Niño region 1.2, as depicted below. It's currently at about a 0.6ºC drop since November 24th, but based on projections, this should generally continue, and I think it will reach and/or exceed a 1ºC change, which is my threshold of consideration for atmospheric impacts. Generally, this signal takes 2-3 weeks to show up, and corresponds to a height field of same anomaly over the eastern U.S. (i.e. a 1ºC or greater fall in the SST anomalies in Niño region 1.2 corresponds to anomalous troughing over the eastern U.S. 2-3 weeks later, whereas a rise of similar magnitude corresponds to anomalous ridging over the eastern U.S. 2-3 weeks later).



Based on the above, I expect some large corrections to the appearance of the pattern in the extended range on both the EPS and GEFS going forward into mid-month and thereafter, but we shall see. I also expect things to really ramp up into the New Year and beyond, as the Stratosphere looks to play its hand. I think we see multiple hits/warming events to it this year in favorable locations, which should work in our favor.

Anyway, hopefully that makes some sense, but if not, I welcome any questions and/or further comments

As brother sroc would say, WE TRACK!

First off let me say whenever someone challenges your ideas it forces you to go back and reassess your thoughts. This is where learning comes from.   I appreciate both you and Heehaws thoughts despite the fact that we may disagree on certain points.  

Let me summarize the conclusions.  I think we are both in overall agreement that we are waiting until about Dec 20th and beyond for the real magic to happen.  For me my overall argument isnt necessarily where the month of Dec falls temp anomaly wise, but rather the forecasted MJO has merit in both current observations as well as model forecasts to support linkages to the warmer phases such that storm tracks into and around our region will struggle to tap into the cold air sources and be on the warmer side of solns until after the third week of Dec at the earliest.  It doesnt mean we cant/wont snow, esp off the coastal plain as climatology conts to favor the interior as we head deeper into the month.





The Invest in the Bay of Bengal and associated convection is in the Phase 3-4 region.  Regardless of whats going on elsewhere in the trop Pac, current observation show a clear link to the atmpsohere in the phase 3-4-5 region.  https://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/jma/fd/wvblue.html




Looking at PWAT forecasts, and precipitation forecasts along this area of the Pacific there looks to be a link to cont to a certain degree.  Now as you pointed out there are other areas linking to the northern latitudes  which might mitigate what the true phase 3-6 MJO might look like on the 500mb pattern over the NE but ther is enough there to suggest that until that linkage tempers there likely will be an influence on just how much cold air will be available to any storm headed our way.  

I have to be honest Im actually pretty hung over right now and realize I cant keep going.  My brain hurts.  LOL

Bottom line is I think Dec through about the 20th will average approx 1-1.5* AN and the storm systems will really struggle to produce white for most, but.......


WE TRACK  

Uh oh, it sounds like somebody had a few tii many martoonis or maybe too many glasses of adult grape juice hahaha I hope you’ve since recovered, though! lol

We definitely agree that the latter third of December should look better than the first, and I think the reasons why are also similar, so no need to take this any further.

As for the MJO, though, I’m a bit hesitant to accept the idea that we see the wave propagate with any significant amplitude through the Maritime Continent. What would allow the wave to hold together when there are multiple factors destructively interning with it? This is why I mentioned that even though we may end up seeing the plots indicating that it is cycling through, I felt (and still do feel) that if it doesn’t collapse into the Null Phase entirely, it would be presented as a very weak amplitude from Phases 4-7. Secondarily, it’s my opinion that even if it does present as a weak amplitude in those phases, I don’t think that it’s enough to torch us completely due to what I think will be a lack of any sustained deep convection. Rather, I think it’s more of an “intermission” before the pattern reloads for a more sustained below-average regime, with a lot of back and forth between above and below-average temperatures of similar duration and magnitude.

To follow my points above, in yesterday’s guidance, there were multiple ensembles (both GFS Ensemble and bias-corrected Ensemble, JMA, and ECMWF) showing a clear bifurcation of members within the next 3-5 days. One group in each respective GFS, GFS-BC, and ECMWF, and ALL of the JMA members rapidly decay into the Null Phase as the MJO propagates through Phase 4, while the others steadily weaken but take until Phase 5 to really decay. Clearly the first group supports my thinking, while the second is more in line with yours. But with such disparity even within 3-5 days, it’s no wonder why we see the modeling looking “less favorable” overall when it comes to the Northern Hemispheric pattern. However, based on recent satellite imagery and analysis, I still think there’s too much credit being given to this MJO wave down the road, and I think the weaker members in the first group of Ensemble guidance will prove correct. Assuming this, that’s when we should see the extended range guidance start looking a lot better. Again, this is just my opinion.

[rb924119]

Heehaw to piggy back a bit on what you posted above, the question is going to be what happens after the next couple of weeks?  

A legit test is on the horizon.  On one hand there is a legit argument to be made, most recently by Rb(Ray), that our MJO will re-emerge in more favorable phases.  In addition, and we have yet to really discuss this much in here, a significant strat warming is currently taking place which looks to continue to occur over the next 2-3weeks such that the end result is at the very least a weakened and stretched state and in a position that SHOULD be favorable for the eastern CONUS.  



But when looking at the teleconnections, both Euro and GFS are similar, our AO moves towards positive, our EPO remains strongly +, our NAO moves towards positive, and our PNA moves towards negative.  Both EPS and GEFS hint at this in their 500mb pattern towards the end of their respective runs.  










The look on those two 500mb images is about as ugly as it gets for a winter weather weenie.  So the question is...Is this real?  Do we have to endure it getting worse before it gets better?  Does the current LT evolve over time into something that ends up more favorable than what is being predicted?  Delayed, but not denied, or delayed; delayed again..and again?  Time will tell.  My opinion on what we are seeing above is the result of the MJO rotating through the warm phases of the MJO as discussed over the weekend, and we are going to need to be patient. I still think it’s going to get a bit wild around these parts around Xmas time; though the new year as a result of the effects on the Strat as well as the mjo re emerging back out into more favorable phases.

This is a fantastic post, and not one that I think needs anything added to it. The only thing that I will say, is that we have to account for a lag of 3-6 weeks AFTER the warming becomes established in the Stratosphere for these effects to propagate downward to the Troposphere, and the extent of the lag is dictated by how well the Stratosphere and Troposphere are coupled. Unfortunately, I don’t have access to any graphics that could help us discern the degree of coupling between the two, so I’m not entirely sure what the likely lag will be. However, I think the period around the New Year is a good guess.

Regarding the forecast teleconnections, I think that you’re exactly right - the models are imparting the effects of the warmer MJO phases on the Northern Hemispheric pattern.My contention, though, is that they’re overplaying that hand, and there are some red flags for this on the modeling. The presence of that persistent 70N/70E ridge should help to mitigate the duration and amplitude of any ridging in the eastern CONUS, and if you notice, there is also troughing showing up in the Ensembles now as well to the east/southeast of Hawaii. If there’s a trough there, it’s very difficult to keep a trough over the western CONUS. Any trough that does get into the western CONUS should either eject out into the Plains, or cut off and retrograde beneath a building ridge above it. Either way, it would add support for more troughing getting into the eastern CONUS than modeling is currently suggesting, and if 70N/70E ridge is real (which I think it will be), and the MJO is over played, there’s going to be a much different look to the guidance. Plus, ENSO 1.2 is now down by 1°C and still falling, as expected, this would also align with a colder pattern from approximately the 20th and beyond.

[rb924119]

Great posts, mugsy! We are in lockstep, brother! Your graphics perfectly demonstrate the points I’ve been trying to make, now let’s keep the mojo going by having them verify! Haha

[rb924119]

Havent had time to read all this detailed analysis but from looking a LR GFS every system cuts to the west through the GL. My guess is especially us coasties we will have to wait until january for a chance at snow. I wouldn't be surprised if it took till after the new year for inland too, could that change of course but I see a big pattern of storms just continually cutting west into GL. Do not like it one bit.

You might be right, Jman, but, as mugsy said, I think this year is very much different than last year. I wouldn’t discount December, especially post-20th.

[rb924119]

WOW! JAN AND FEB!

I’m just gonna put this here……latest EURO Seasonal from January-March:

[amugs]

TIMBER!!! Nino 1.2 is dying a fast and cold death!!

[amugs]

This shows MJO forcing means innphase 8,1,2 lean o. 8 and 2. Phases 3-6 are non existent.  Buckle up if true.

[sroc4]

This shows MJO forcing means innphase 8,1,2 lean o. 8 and 2. Phases 3-6 are non existent.  Buckle up if true.

I dont know Mugs.  Draw a  N to S line through the Eastern 1/3rd of the Australian continent and you get the negatives focused in 6, 7, 8, and the fringes of 1  Draw a circle around the negatives over the western IO/East African coast you get phase 1 and maybe the fringes of 2. Sorry brother, not trying to be argumentative.

[rb924119]

This shows MJO forcing means innphase 8,1,2 lean o. 8 and 2. Phases 3-6 are non existent.  Buckle up if true.

I dont know Mugs.  Draw a  N to S line through the Eastern 1/3rd of the Australian continent and you get the negatives focused in 6, 7, 8, and the fringes of 1  Draw a circle around the negatives over the western IO/East African coast you get phase 1 and maybe the fringes of 2. Sorry brother, not trying to be argumentative.

I agree, Scott. But even if we take this verbatim, it implies a dead wave through a majority of the warm phases. So even if it was to emerge in Phase 6, I think it’s more of an acceleration toward phases 7 and 8, which are much more favorable. Then that signal gets carried through until Phase 2, and decays. Rinse, wash, repeat. Verbatim, I wouldn’t even mind this, as anomalous convection would largely be biased in the cold phases. However, based on current conditions and shorter-term progs, I think this output should be generally shifted east by about a full phase. My opinion.

[dkodgis]

This Sun evening I bet high winds and rain from the front coming through

[rb924119]

Also of note, there is a large degree of agreement amongst all global model suites with regard to the evolution of the pattern over the North Atlantic and into Europe. A HIGHLY anomalous ridge is forecast to develop over the northern Atlantic. What’s interesting is this is not quite a true -NAO signal, as the latitude at which it is likely to be located is too far south. BUT, I think this is going to end up acting as a pseudo -NAO in that it is going to severely buckle the flow over the northern Atlantic, and end up morphing into one hell of a west-based -NAO block that continues retrograding toward Hudson Bay and western Canada just in time for the much-discussed period of ~December 20th and beyond. Based on this thinking, we have to look out for two things:

1. We could see one heck of a nor’easter for the Mid-Atlantic states, anywhere from South Carolina to New York IF the Pacific side of things cooperates (which I expect they will at least try).

2. Once that block cyclonically wave breaks over the top and folds towards Hudson Bay while continuing to retrograde, the proverbial hammer comes down and Old Man Winter makes his first true appearance.

This is all conjecture at this point, but with some of the things already mentioned that typically favor anomalous troughing in the eastern CONUS (70N/70E ridge, ENSO 1.2 continuing to rank, MJO forcing becoming favorable, etc.), I am VERY, VERY anxious to see how this evolves, and think that the period from about the 18th-23rd bears very close attention for the Eastern Seaboard. This could be an Archambault Event that kicks things off rather than concludes them.

[amugs]

European showing some signs of stratospheric to tropospheric propagation in 11-15 day with warmer height changes around Alaska. American ensemble disagrees, but latest 6z/12z cycles have trended toward European. pic.twitter.com/bbmT8rPjCA

— Commodity Wx Group (@commoditywx) December 6, 2023

[frank 638]

I am hearing after Christmas around Dec 27 th a pattern change is coming to a colder pattern

[HectorO]

I am hearing after Christmas around Dec 27 th a pattern change is coming to a colder pattern

We've heard this before lol. Every year it starts the same. First, it's after the first 10 days, then 20th then right after new year, then February, next thing you know it's spring.

[Irish]

I am hearing after Christmas around Dec 27 th a pattern change is coming to a colder pattern

We've heard this before lol. Every year it starts the same. First, it's after the first 10 days, then 20th then right after new year, then February, next thing you know it's spring.

so true and so funny. The big one is coming crew, oh wait, things didn't align. Maybe the next one...

Either way, I love the hunt, the anticipation of something... anything. Just like SENJSnowman.

[rb924119]

I am hearing after Christmas around Dec 27 th a pattern change is coming to a colder pattern

We've heard this before lol. Every year it starts the same. First, it's after the first 10 days, then 20th then right after new year, then February, next thing you know it's spring.

I’m gonna blow the dust off an oldie but goodie with my response: TRUST THE PROCESS

Some of you may remember the first time that was used, and what followed lol

[rb924119]

European showing some signs of stratospheric to tropospheric propagation in 11-15 day with warmer height changes around Alaska. American ensemble disagrees, but latest 6z/12z cycles have trended toward European. pic.twitter.com/bbmT8rPjCA

— Commodity Wx Group (@commoditywx) December 6, 2023

Right on shedule (intentionally spelled wrong for added effect :p )

[dkodgis]

I am going to guess as a dumb layperson this means the polar vortex is weakening and consequentially very cold air is coming.

[sroc4]

I am hearing after Christmas around Dec 27 th a pattern change is coming to a colder pattern

We've heard this before lol. Every year it starts the same. First, it's after the first 10 days, then 20th then right after new year, then February, next thing you know it's spring.

With the last few years still in everyone’s minds the PTSD is real. Lol. Couldn’t have said it better.   In fact I tried in so many word:

So the question is...Is this real?  Do we have to endure it getting worse before it gets better?  Does the current LT evolve over time into something that ends up more favorable than what is being predicted?  Delayed, but not denied, or delayed; delayed again..and again?  Time will tell.

But you def put it way better and definitely sums up what many of us are thinking. There is def a small amount of my cold and snow bias, truth be told, but I do honestly believe this season will be different. For one the last three winter seasons were La Niña years. Obviously this years Tropical pacific is markedly different. We are also seeing an attack on the stratosphere earlier than we have in a really long time.

My left brain continues to look as objectively as I possibly can constantly looking at as many moving parts as it can trying to make sense of it all. It’s telling me to stay optimistic. My right brain however is still hesitates no matter what left brain says.

[SENJsnowman]

I am hearing after Christmas around Dec 27 th a pattern change is coming to a colder pattern

We've heard this before lol. Every year it starts the same. First, it's after the first 10 days, then 20th then right after new year, then February, next thing you know it's spring.

 so true and so funny. The big one is coming crew, oh wait, things didn't align. Maybe the next one...

Either way, I love the hunt, the anticipation of something... anything. Just like SENJSnowman.

Appreciate the shout out Irish! The thrill is in the hunt! Of course, if the hunt is NEVER successful, then it's hard to get the thrill. But, even at the coast, history says we can rely on at least one biggun every 2-3 years. Most of the time, my right brain knows full well, it won't work out. But, I pretty much always make the conscious decision to disregard that reality and chase after the hope...knowing full well how small the chances actually are. What can I say? My idea of a good time...lol!

I think I've learned to funnel all of that frustration and 'failure' into appreciation for all the time and expertise that our experts put into the hunt. So, for right now, just trying to be patient, following all the forecasts (including Doc's Trends Report) and definitely letting them get my hopes up! And hopefully, this January at the coast is like 2022...and 2018...and 2016...and 2014!

[docstox12]

This weekends soaker shows that moisture has been there and even cold air, as there were two days of flurries/snow showers.Just need the storm track and upper air patterns to align and we will start to cash in.The meteorological information posted above indicates that may happen, but here we are.almost in mid December with no snow OTG.The fact that we broke out of the La nina curse is hopeful.

[deadrabbit79]

This weekends soaker shows that moisture has been there and even cold air, as there were two days of flurries/snow showers.Just need the storm track and upper air patterns to align and we will start to cash in.The meteorological information posted above indicates that may happen, but here we are.almost in mid December with no snow OTG.The fact that we broke out of the La nina curse is hopeful.

When you say soaker…..are we looking at deluge type flooding rain like we saw in September and October and the warmer months? I have ptsd from those flooding storms so when i hear heavy rain i get the shakes

[docstox12]

This weekends soaker shows that moisture has been there and even cold air, as there were two days of flurries/snow showers.Just need the storm track and upper air patterns to align and we will start to cash in.The meteorological information posted above indicates that may happen, but here we are.almost in mid December with no snow OTG.The fact that we broke out of the La nina curse is hopeful.

When you say soaker…..are we looking at deluge type flooding rain like we saw in September and October and the warmer months?  I have ptsd from those flooding storms so when i hear heavy rain i get the shakes

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/12072023.pdf

[rb924119]

Also of note, there is a large degree of agreement amongst all global model suites with regard to the evolution of the pattern over the North Atlantic and into Europe. A HIGHLY anomalous ridge is forecast to develop over the northern Atlantic. What’s interesting is this is not quite a true -NAO signal, as the latitude at which it is likely to be located is too far south. BUT, I think this is going to end up acting as a pseudo -NAO in that it is going to severely buckle the flow over the northern Atlantic, and end up morphing into one hell of a west-based -NAO block that continues retrograding toward Hudson Bay and western Canada just in time for the much-discussed period of ~December 20th and beyond. Based on this thinking, we have to look out for two things:

1. We could see one heck of a nor’easter for the Mid-Atlantic states, anywhere from South Carolina to New York IF the Pacific side of things cooperates (which I expect they will at least try).

2. Once that block cyclonically wave breaks over the top and folds towards Hudson Bay while continuing to retrograde, the proverbial hammer comes down and Old Man Winter makes his first true appearance.

This is all conjecture at this point, but with some of the things already mentioned that typically favor anomalous troughing in the eastern CONUS (70N/70E ridge, ENSO 1.2 continuing to rank, MJO forcing becoming favorable, etc.), I am VERY, VERY anxious to see how this evolves, and think that the period from about the 18th-23rd bears very close attention for the Eastern Seaboard. This could be an Archambault Event that kicks things off rather than concludes them.

Modeling may be catching onto this threat now. GFS has been consistent over the last few cycles, GEM has been close, but has now joined the party with tonight’s 00z run. Long way to go with this one, but it’s nice to see that the ideas presented may have some merit

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