Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

[docstox12]

This weekends soaker shows that moisture has been there and even cold air, as there were two days of flurries/snow showers.Just need the storm track and upper air patterns to align and we will start to cash in.The meteorological information posted above indicates that may happen, but here we are.almost in mid December with no snow OTG.The fact that we broke out of the La nina curse is hopeful.

When you say soaker…..are we looking at deluge type flooding rain like we saw in September and October and the warmer months?  I have ptsd from those flooding storms so when i hear heavy rain i get the shakes

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/12072023.pdf

[rb924119]

Also of note, there is a large degree of agreement amongst all global model suites with regard to the evolution of the pattern over the North Atlantic and into Europe. A HIGHLY anomalous ridge is forecast to develop over the northern Atlantic. What’s interesting is this is not quite a true -NAO signal, as the latitude at which it is likely to be located is too far south. BUT, I think this is going to end up acting as a pseudo -NAO in that it is going to severely buckle the flow over the northern Atlantic, and end up morphing into one hell of a west-based -NAO block that continues retrograding toward Hudson Bay and western Canada just in time for the much-discussed period of ~December 20th and beyond. Based on this thinking, we have to look out for two things:

1. We could see one heck of a nor’easter for the Mid-Atlantic states, anywhere from South Carolina to New York IF the Pacific side of things cooperates (which I expect they will at least try).

2. Once that block cyclonically wave breaks over the top and folds towards Hudson Bay while continuing to retrograde, the proverbial hammer comes down and Old Man Winter makes his first true appearance.

This is all conjecture at this point, but with some of the things already mentioned that typically favor anomalous troughing in the eastern CONUS (70N/70E ridge, ENSO 1.2 continuing to rank, MJO forcing becoming favorable, etc.), I am VERY, VERY anxious to see how this evolves, and think that the period from about the 18th-23rd bears very close attention for the Eastern Seaboard. This could be an Archambault Event that kicks things off rather than concludes them.

Modeling may be catching onto this threat now. GFS has been consistent over the last few cycles, GEM has been close, but has now joined the party with tonight’s 00z run. Long way to go with this one, but it’s nice to see that the ideas presented may have some merit

[heehaw453]

Also of note, there is a large degree of agreement amongst all global model suites with regard to the evolution of the pattern over the North Atlantic and into Europe. A HIGHLY anomalous ridge is forecast to develop over the northern Atlantic. What’s interesting is this is not quite a true -NAO signal, as the latitude at which it is likely to be located is too far south. BUT, I think this is going to end up acting as a pseudo -NAO in that it is going to severely buckle the flow over the northern Atlantic, and end up morphing into one hell of a west-based -NAO block that continues retrograding toward Hudson Bay and western Canada just in time for the much-discussed period of ~December 20th and beyond. Based on this thinking, we have to look out for two things:

1. We could see one heck of a nor’easter for the Mid-Atlantic states, anywhere from South Carolina to New York IF the Pacific side of things cooperates (which I expect they will at least try).

2. Once that block cyclonically wave breaks over the top and folds towards Hudson Bay while continuing to retrograde, the proverbial hammer comes down and Old Man Winter makes his first true appearance.

This is all conjecture at this point, but with some of the things already mentioned that typically favor anomalous troughing in the eastern CONUS (70N/70E ridge, ENSO 1.2 continuing to rank, MJO forcing becoming favorable, etc.), I am VERY, VERY anxious to see how this evolves, and think that the period from about the 18th-23rd bears very close attention for the Eastern Seaboard. This could be an Archambault Event that kicks things off rather than concludes them.

Modeling may be catching onto this threat now. GFS has been consistent over the last few cycles, GEM has been close, but has now joined the party with tonight’s 00z run. Long way to go with this one, but it’s nice to see that the ideas presented may have some merit

I agree 12/18-19 is period of interest. The EPO becomes more favorable coupled with a PNA spike. The issue I have is lack of cold air. Are we just not going to have enough cold air to tap into? If we had a favorable AO/NAO before this I'd me a lot more enthusiastic about this period. As it stands now I just feel this may be one where the atmosphere isn't there yet. Unless we are able to get that N/S to drop into this and crank the system with cold air. Those are always tough scenarios, but not out of the question at this range.

[sroc4]

Also of note, there is a large degree of agreement amongst all global model suites with regard to the evolution of the pattern over the North Atlantic and into Europe. A HIGHLY anomalous ridge is forecast to develop over the northern Atlantic. What’s interesting is this is not quite a true -NAO signal, as the latitude at which it is likely to be located is too far south. BUT, I think this is going to end up acting as a pseudo -NAO in that it is going to severely buckle the flow over the northern Atlantic, and end up morphing into one hell of a west-based -NAO block that continues retrograding toward Hudson Bay and western Canada just in time for the much-discussed period of ~December 20th and beyond. Based on this thinking, we have to look out for two things:

1. We could see one heck of a nor’easter for the Mid-Atlantic states, anywhere from South Carolina to New York IF the Pacific side of things cooperates (which I expect they will at least try).

2. Once that block cyclonically wave breaks over the top and folds towards Hudson Bay while continuing to retrograde, the proverbial hammer comes down and Old Man Winter makes his first true appearance.

This is all conjecture at this point, but with some of the things already mentioned that typically favor anomalous troughing in the eastern CONUS (70N/70E ridge, ENSO 1.2 continuing to rank, MJO forcing becoming favorable, etc.), I am VERY, VERY anxious to see how this evolves, and think that the period from about the 18th-23rd bears very close attention for the Eastern Seaboard. This could be an Archambault Event that kicks things off rather than concludes them.

Modeling may be catching onto this threat now. GFS has been consistent over the last few cycles, GEM has been close, but has now joined the party with tonight’s 00z run. Long way to go with this one, but it’s nice to see that the ideas presented may have some merit

I agree 12/18-19 is period of interest. The EPO becomes more favorable coupled with a PNA spike. The issue I have is lack of cold air. Are we just not going to have enough cold air to tap into? If we had a favorable AO/NAO before this I'd me a lot more enthusiastic about this period. As it stands now I just feel this may be one where the atmosphere isn't there yet. Unless we are able to get that N/S to drop into this and crank the system with cold air. Those are always tough scenarios, but not out of the question at this range.

While I agree this is a period of interest I also agree that atmosphere isnt quite ready.  Reason being is those pesky negatives nosing into the west coast.  While there may be a PNA spike I worry that its transient; very similar to what we are seeing set up for Sunday night.  To me this look at 500 tells me there still will be waves of Vort crashing the WC knocking down the PNA ridge keeping the northern piece of energy from phasing with the southern piece until its just a tad too late, again, very similar to the way this one Sunday night appears to be setting up.  There is still a resistance in the atmosphere in the form of the linkage to the phase 4/5 MJO pulse that I think is what leads to the Euro/GEM soln rather than what the NAM and lesser degree GFS is trying to do for this weekend.  That said the 18th time frame could result in a slight diff soln, esp for the HV and off the coastal plain in general as the MJO wave is collapsing fast so we'll see. As is often the case timing will be crucial for this one. And while I still dont think this one is quite ready to work out for some, its def something to track.




Now looking beyond lets look at the EPS and GEFS regarding the Xmas eve time frame +/- a day or so.  This period IMHO is the period where we have our first legit shot at significantly accumulating snow comes around this time.  There is a strong storm signal for this time frame which quite honestly is likely in large part due to the shift in the atmosphere created by the system that we are talking about above.    

The biggest clue is how strong he negatives are showing up south of the Aleutians.  IF this is real then a legit PNA spike will be there which will produce a trough in the east.  On top of that if there is a little N Atlantic blocking, even if not the traditional -NAO block over Greenland, then it only increases the odds of a phasing system somewhere into the mid Atlantic and NE area.

[algae888]

Yes Scott the mjo wave is dying off and I have read recently that if we want cold in the east we want weak mjo waves during El nino's. Preferably in phases 8 thru 2. The US is flooded with warmth right now so it looks like we may have to wait until after Christmas for snow unless we time something perfectly.  I am optimistic for Jan and February as the Aleutian low looks to form and we will have a weak polar vortex with the possibility of a SSWE in January

[sroc4]

Yes Scott the mjo wave is dying off and I have read recently that if we want cold in the east we want weak mjo waves during El nono's. Preferably in phases 8 thru 2. The US is flooded with warmth right now so it looks like we may have to wait until after Christmas for snow unless we time something perfectly.  I am optimistic for Jan and February as the Aleutian low looks to form and we will have a weak polar vortex with the possibility of answering sometime in January

We likely read the same thing regarding weak MJos during El Niños. That said I really don’t think we have to wait until January. I think there are at least 2 legit shots if the images above are to be believed.

[algae888]

Yes Scott the mjo wave is dying off and I have read recently that if we want cold in the east we want weak mjo waves during El nono's. Preferably in phases 8 thru 2. The US is flooded with warmth right now so it looks like we may have to wait until after Christmas for snow unless we time something perfectly.  I am optimistic for Jan and February as the Aleutian low looks to form and we will have a weak polar vortex with the possibility of answering sometime in January

We likely read the same thing regarding weak MJos during El Niños. That said I really don’t think we have to wait until January. I think there are at least 2 legit shots if the images above are to be believed.

I think we'll have a shot Christmas week through new years. The one for next weekend We have to hope the GFS is more correct than the EPS. The GFS has a big pn a spike
Which allows for some cold air to come into Southeast Canada and the northeast. Today's eps seemed to lose that. I have to figure out how to put images in here again.

[heehaw453]

I'm sure hoping the Euro ensembles are not correct with their prog of the AO state. If this is right NYC most likely will be 14th consecutive year without a white Christmas. There's not enough cold air on this side of the globe to overcome that IMO and I think for coastal plain to get on the board meaningfully that support is required. Not ready to give up on December just yet...

[phil155]

Sadly I don’t think we will see much more than maybe some mood flakes until after the new year

[amugs]

I'm sure hoping the Euro ensembles are not correct with their prog of the AO state. If this is right NYC most likely will be 14th consecutive year without a white Christmas. There's not enough cold air on this side of the globe to overcome that IMO and I think for coastal plain to get on the board meaningfully that support is required. Not ready to give up on December just yet...

This is what we have in the PAC, the deadly PAC JET extension from an +EAMT (Positive East Asia Mountain Torque) that puts an absolute monkey wrench into the pattern. Not a blow torch but definitely AN. Temps are around 50ish. Need that MJO wave to get into 8 to knock this out as it showed for a week.





GEFS agree but not as strong.

[dkodgis]

Casual drizzle still. Dreary. Not even an 1/8 inch yet in the gauge

[toople]

I'm sure hoping the Euro ensembles are not correct with their prog of the AO state. If this is right NYC most likely will be 14th consecutive year without a white Christmas. There's not enough cold air on this side of the globe to overcome that IMO and I think for coastal plain to get on the board meaningfully that support is required. Not ready to give up on December just yet...

This is what we have in the PAC, the deadly PAC JET extension from an +EAMT (Positive East Asia Mountain Torque) that puts an absolute monkey wrench into the pattern. Not a blow torch but definitely AN. Temps are around 50ish. Need that MJO wave to get into 8 to knock this out as it showed for a week.





GEFS agree but not as strong.

Is that developing because the MJO is stalling on Phase 6?

[Frank_Wx]

Basically the entire county is looking at above normal temps over the next 10-14 days due to how unsettling the Pacific upper level pattern is forecasted to be. Al already mentioned it, but the Pacific jet, a reason for our horrid winters the last couple of years, is at it again with flooding the country with mild Pacific air. The pattern is reminiscent more of La Niña winters than it is El Nuno.



I hate to say it - but December as a whole is not looking very good right now. We know the next 2 weeks are shot, and the period between Christmas and New Years doesn’t look any better on current guidance right now. It can change, but is there any evidence that suggests it will? Strat PV is strong, MJO is heading into neutral territory, and PAC Jet continue to rage on. The AO and NAO charts consistently show positive values through months end.

[Irish]

Rinse and repeat. Happy Holidays to all, see you in 2024.

[heehaw453]

Basically the entire county is looking at above normal temps over the next 10-14 days due to how unsettling the Pacific upper level pattern is forecasted to be. Al already mentioned it, but the Pacific jet, a reason for our horrid winters the last couple of years, is at it again with flooding the country with mild Pacific air. The pattern is reminiscent more of La Niña winters than it is El Nuno.



I hate to say it - but December as a whole is not looking very good right now. We know the next 2 weeks are shot, and the period between Christmas and New Years doesn’t look any better on current guidance right now. It can change, but is there any evidence that suggests it will? Strat PV is strong, MJO is heading into neutral territory, and PAC Jet continue to rage on. The AO and NAO charts consistently show positive values through months end.

I have to agree Frank. Even the PAC air with a decent NAM state I think at least we'd have a shot at some holiday snowfall. I felt w/out AO/NAO help we'd be having some difficulty for snowfall in December and think +3 AN is in the cards. EPS is very bullish on a bad NAM state.

https://media1.tenor.com/m/4UUbOG4UT1YAAAAd/king-of-the-hill-bill.gif

[sroc4]

You guys beat me to it. Just a few short days ago we were setting up for potential storm around Xmas. While the storm is still possible it he ability to tap into cold air is starting to look unlikely. If you look at the stratosphere actually the warming is currently forecast to kick the Strat PV on the wrong side of the northern hemisphere. Not looking too good

[Frank_Wx]

You guys beat me to it. Just a few short days ago we were setting up for potential storm around Xmas. While the storm is still possible it he ability to tap into cold air is starting to look unlikely. If you look at the stratosphere actually the warming is currently forecast to kick the Strat PV on the wrong side of the northern hemisphere. Not looking too good

There’s a couple of storms out there with the right pieces we need. But the biggest piece is missing…COLD AIR!

The northern jet is working remotely out of Canada

[rb924119]

Idk, I’m just not seeing all the negativity. Give me blocking across central Canada/Hudson Bay and I’ll take my chances, even in a marginal airmass. And I think the threat for the 18th-23rd period is real, and bears a very close eye, because I think it could be a powerhouse if it develops. It may not be snow for everybody, but climatology is a thing for a reason.

Beyond that, everything looks in tact to me. This is a movie, gang, it’s not a static image. I’ll expand on this later, but I’m actually pretty optimistic about the rest of the month. All I’ll say right now is:

“HOLDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD!!!!!”

Oo, and trust the process.

[amugs]

Idk, I’m just not seeing all the negativity. Give me blocking across central Canada/Hudson Bay and I’ll take my chances, even in a marginal airmass. And I think the threat for the 18th-23rd period is real, and bears a very close eye, because I think it could be a powerhouse if it develops. It may not be snow for everybody, but climatology is a thing for a reason.

Beyond that, everything looks in tact to me. This is a movie, gang, it’s not a static image. I’ll expand on this later, but I’m actually pretty optimistic about the rest of the month. All I’ll say right now is:

“HOLDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD!!!!!”

Oo, and trust the process.

I'll hold to read what you have to say. I am not one for being pessimistic but I HATE the PAC JET look, that is an absolute killer with no block or reshuffle we are in trouble for the rest of the month. All the PV chart are nice looking but we wait to see what actually happens. Meanwhile, Russia and Northern China are getting crushed with record breaking cold n snow as did Europe. Just not here.....again.

Long Long Range showing a Nina (moderatish) for next winter season

Here is the epitome of last few winters: A 989 SE of Montauk and rain - if you gave that look to us today we have a snowstorm. Cant make this up.

[frank 638]

I am still thinking after Christmas the week of New Year’s. We will see a parent change will we see snow? Who knows but I think it’s gonna get colder by New Year’s

[phil155]

I am still thinking after Christmas the week of New Year’s. We will see a parent change will we see snow? Who knows but I think it’s gonna get colder by New Year’s

I am thinking we see things change for a more wintery and hopefully snowy pattern into January and maybe in a bigger way into February

[amugs]

I am still thinking after Christmas the week of New Year’s. We will see a parent change will we see snow? Who knows but I think it’s gonna get colder by New Year’s

We have to kill that PAC JET extension and +EAMT. Just an absolute killer. I am not being a debbie downer but it ususally take a MJO favorable phase to do so and as Frank said the wave is stuck and once it can release into phase 8 we get a reshuffle but it takes a few days to do so and then a few more fro effects to kick in.

Here is the latest MJO forecast and you can se it stuck in COD - circle of death and has no influence on the pattern thus allowing the PAC JET from the warm NPAC pool to flex.



0Z EPS just kills the continent with pac air. Steadfast on this.



GEFS too


This is what we like to see - Low pressures over the Asian continent:


Not this. It pormotes a flow off the continent that enhances the JET structure from meridional to zonal



I always say that those who rooted for a MJO phase of warmth to help with NAO blocking and a Start Warm are playing with fire casue if it gets stuck and feeds back off it itself you burn weeks of winter.

I do think by the first week of January we may start to see more positive news for Jan through early March until then I'll wait to see what Rb has to say.

[tomsriversnowstorm]

Mugs is it possible for the mjo to get into the good phase before winter is over? Or is this something that will take months or years? Sorry I just have no clue and you seem like an expert.

[sroc4]

Heehaw to piggy back a bit on what you posted above, the question is going to be what happens after the next couple of weeks? ..... 







The look on those two 500mb images is about as ugly as it gets for a winter weather weenie.  So the question is...Is this real?  Do we have to endure it getting worse before it gets better?  Does the current LT evolve over time into something that ends up more favorable than what is being predicted?  Delayed, but not denied, or delayed; delayed again..and again?  Time will tell.  My opinion on what we are seeing above is the result of the MJO rotating through the warm phases of the MJO as discussed over the weekend, and we are going to need to be patient. I still think it’s going to get a bit wild around these parts around Xmas time; though the new year as a result of the effects on the Strat as well as the mjo re emerging back out into more favorable phases.

If I could offer some cautious optimism.  Recall this post I made from Dec 4th.  As you can see by the 500mb anomaly charts above both GEFS and EPS both had a horrible look for 12z Dec 18th.  BUT the LT has evolved, not perfect by any stretch, but more favorably for this time frame.  Now im not sure yet if its favorably enough for the majority (or even anyone), but as I believe Ray and/or Mugsy stated in an earlier post climatology conts to be on our side for marginal set ups esp the further off the coastal plain you go.  

Now IMO there is a <2% chance the coastal plain sees anything other than what we just saw for last nights system, but in the words of Jim Carry yes...Im telling you there's a chance....for the Dec 18th time frame, but Inland folks Im going to say 15-20% chance at this lead time.  Look above one more time and now look below to what the 12z Dec 18th time frame has evolved to at 500.  Again cold air will be extremely tough to tap into as the AO, EPO, and NAO are all positive, but climatology and the hint at a possible +PNA ridge is there so there's potential.  Well discuss the potential further in the other thread as we begin to get inside 5-7days if the potential grows.  





Details are still very fuzzy regarding the 18th, but the point im trying to make is if the 500mb evolved to what we saw in the modeling on Dec 4th, (trough up and down the West Coast of NA and Ridge up and down the EC), to what we see now, then there is a chance that the current crappy look at the current 2week time frame can and likely will evolve, hopefully more favorably, as well.  Below is what the end of the 06z GEFS looks like for the Dec 27th time frame.  Similar to what Dec 4th looked like for the 18th, but even better.  

What Im looking for in this image below is some of those negatives(blue colors), to pull back just off the west coast rather than nose into the western third of the CONUS.  This would result in our little PNA spike to a certain degree which in turn pulls some of the negatives seen off the SE coast in the image back into the SE CONUS which then hopefully brings some energy off the NE coast somewhere.  We'll see how this one evolves, but Im still optimistic, albeit cautiously

[sroc4]

Mugs is it possible for the mjo to get into the good phase before winter is over? Or is this something that will take months or years? Sorry I just have no clue and you seem like an expert.

My answer to this is 100% absolutely it's possible. MJO is a broad pulse of convection along the equator that extends between the Indian ocean eastward through the eastern Pacific that tends to propagate eastward with time until which time it collapses, on those graphs into the center circle(see below). Where the convection is dictates what phase of the PJO is in. On avg any give MJO pulse can last for anywhere around 10-14 days or as long as 20-30days or more depending on multiple factors. So while mugs shows the MJO collapse into the center its the ideas of many and in some of the actual MJO forecasts that it will re-emerge out into some of the more favorable phases sometime between Xmas and new years. That said it is also possible that it does not re-emerge, or it re-emerges back out into the warm phases. Time will tell and as of now, cautious optimism required, all signs point to a more favorable MJO at some oint in the next 2-3weeks. Does it lead to snow in my back yard or yours? Man I hope so.

[dsix85]

Great work and insight by the wonderful folks on this board. All of these elements at play show that it takes a lot to come together for everyone on this board to see substantial storms resulting in snow. Some years we have the brutal cold suppressing storms to the south, and we complain we can’t get snow but have the cold. Things are different at the moment where the storm signal is there but it’s not matching up to the cold being in place. Please keep in mind that we are entering mid-December, we may not get our big snows until late January or February where we tend to see our biggest snowstorms. Until then, we shall watch and hope.

[Frank_Wx]

The storm signal on the 18th is massive. Just unfortunate how there’s little cold air as of today’s modeling. Maybe we see an unknown piece of northern energy try to eject out of the north and bring down cold air with it. We won’t know for a few more days. But as of now 18th is looking very rainy.

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