Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

[jmanley32]

So great to even just see a storm on the mid range, someone posted that the 12z Euro was crazy? What did it show was it similar to GFS. The surface trend from the GFS is interesting, the snow map haws markedly continued to push north starting from south of DC to now keeping southern jersey out, long way to go but couldn't ask for much more to be potenytially tracking a storm in the first week of the new year. Now yes I know I have been negative about this year but after reading these posts I think there is some hope for next weekend and if it plays out verbatim will stomp last years 5 inches and might even top my call for snowfall in NYC lol, I will be glad to be wrong on that one. Going to be a very busy week as I will be coming off a 10 day vacation (much needed) so hopefully the week will fly by and that we will still be seeing this come mid-week to the weekend. Happy new years to all.

[heehaw453]

Regarding 1/7/ threat, Like SROC has nicely pointed out the H as shown in the EPS provides a mechanism for colder air transport before the storm. That's huge and one of the things you look for when talking about significant snow potential. The 50/50 L causes that H to get pinned and the 50/50 low is pinned by the Greenland blocking. It's text book for a nice snowfall event in these parts. The caveat is if the storm amplifies too much then it will tend to push very close to the coast if not slightly inland. That would warm the mid-levels enough for rain especially on the coastal plain. The amplification will probably be determined by the amount of jet stream phasing that occurs with the storm as well as the initial strength of the s/w.

As of now i think regional wide snow accumulations are looking decent with the best chance of substantial accumulations (4"+) in the interior due to the risk of an over amplified storm causing mixing/rain on the coastal plain.

[rb924119]

12z EPS mean snowfall over the next two weeks. If you’re looking for a sign, look no further lol



This is very bullish for an ensemble mean.

[rb924119]

Regarding 1/7/ threat, Like SROC has nicely pointed out the H as shown in the EPS provides a mechanism for colder air transport before the storm. That's huge and one of the things you look for when talking about significant snow potential. The 50/50 L causes that H to get pinned and the 50/50 low is pinned by the Greenland blocking. It's text book for a nice snowfall event in these parts. The caveat is if the storm amplifies too much then it will tend to push very close to the coast if not slightly inland. That would warm the mid-levels enough for rain especially on the coastal plain. The amplification will probably be determined by the amount of jet stream phasing that occurs with the storm as well as the initial strength of the s/w.

As of now i think regional wide snow accumulations are looking decent with the best chance of substantial accumulations (4"+) in the interior due to the risk of an over amplified storm causing mixing/rain on the coastal plain.

Good post! Although, I think the overall pattern should suppress the entire evolution such that instead of the mid-level circulations passing over PA, I’m thinking more MD. Like I said above, the models will probably start showing solutions where they hold onto the primary too long, only to back away once inside of three days. Just my opinion, though.

[rb924119]

So great to even just see a storm on the mid range, someone posted that the 12z Euro was crazy? What did it show was it similar to GFS. The surface trend from the GFS is interesting, the snow map haws markedly continued to push north starting from south of DC to now keeping southern jersey out, long way to go but couldn't ask for much more to be potenytially tracking a storm in the first week of the new year. Now yes I know I have been negative about this year but after reading these posts I think there is some hope for next weekend and if it plays out verbatim will stomp last years 5 inches and might even top my call for snowfall in NYC lol, I will be glad to be wrong on that one. Going to be a very busy week as I will be coming off a 10 day vacation (much needed) so hopefully the week will fly by and that we will still be seeing this come mid-week to the weekend. Happy new years to all.

Happy New Year to you too, Jman! Yes, there’s a lot to be optimistic about, and the Euro looks similar to the others

[heehaw453]

Regarding 1/7/ threat, Like SROC has nicely pointed out the H as shown in the EPS provides a mechanism for colder air transport before the storm. That's huge and one of the things you look for when talking about significant snow potential. The 50/50 L causes that H to get pinned and the 50/50 low is pinned by the Greenland blocking. It's text book for a nice snowfall event in these parts. The caveat is if the storm amplifies too much then it will tend to push very close to the coast if not slightly inland. That would warm the mid-levels enough for rain especially on the coastal plain. The amplification will probably be determined by the amount of jet stream phasing that occurs with the storm as well as the initial strength of the s/w.

As of now i think regional wide snow accumulations are looking decent with the best chance of substantial accumulations (4"+) in the interior due to the risk of an over amplified storm causing mixing/rain on the coastal plain.

Good post! Although, I think the overall pattern should suppress the entire evolution such that instead of the mid-level circulations passing over PA, I’m thinking more MD. Like I said above, the models will probably start showing solutions where they hold onto the primary too long, only to back away once inside of three days. Just my opinion, though.

I agree with you. The blocking coupled with the 50/50 would suggest more resistance in the atmosphere. That's a strengthening and formidable block. I would be more surprised to see a inland runner than inside the BM track tbh.

[sroc4]

This is a great look by the EPS right now.

[rb924119]

This is a great look by the EPS right now.

Is this for the 6th-8th???

[sroc4]

This is a great look by the EPS right now.

Is this for the 6th-8th???

Yes

[rb924119]

Wow. Lots of heavy hitters in there. GAME ON!

[sroc4]

Whatever you do. Do not look at 18z GFS snow maps. Don’t do it!

[tomsriversnowstorm]

You gotta post them after saying that

Whatever you do. Do not look at 18z GFS snow maps. Don’t do it!  

[heehaw453]

I think this setup is going to fringe some folks on the northern periphery possibly southern NE. Look at the midlevel response to the block. That says it all.

https://mediastorage453.blob.core.windows.net/public/gfs-deterministic-conus-vort850-1704045600-1704585600-1704726000-40.gif

[Irish]

Whatever you do. Do not look at 18z GFS snow maps. Don’t do it!  

What a tease!!

[sroc4]

I’m superstitious so won’t post here. Go to banter but remember it’s a blue light for now. Don’t go towards it yet

[rb924119]

I’m superstitious so won’t post here. Go to banter but remember it’s a blue light for now. Don’t go towards it yet

Oh for Pete’s sake, quit the false bravado, you already know you’re sucked in like the rest of us!

Two years without a major snow event, and now we have a legitimate threat within seven days - snow weenie mode fully engaged! Haha

[Irish]

I’m superstitious so won’t post here. Go to banter but remember it’s a blue light for now. Don’t go towards it yet

Oh for Pete’s sake, quit the false bravado, you already know you’re sucked in like the rest of us!

Two years without a major snow event, and now we have a legitimate threat within seven days - snow weenie mode fully engaged! Haha

Exactly and he posted a long range snow map in the banter thread.   Where are the mods to move inappropriately posted material?!?!   

[rb924119]

00z GFS and GEM Operational runs deliver the goods again. For us northern and western folks, verbatim they drop upwards of two feet over the next ten days. Right around one foot in and around NYC. The point isn’t about the numbers, but about the potential that’s being demonstrated with this pattern.

[SENJsnowman]

00z GFS and GEM Operational runs deliver the goods again. For us northern and western folks, verbatim they drop upwards of two feet over the next ten days. Right around one foot in and around NYC. The point isn’t about the numbers, but about the potential that’s being demonstrated with this pattern.

The 06z GFS brings 8-12" all the way down to southern Ocean County! It does tamp down on the northern totals to 12-14", but wow to the potential. In the words of the immortal Dak Prescott: Here we goooo! And a blessed 2024 to all of you- filled with good health, success and happiness!

[heehaw453]

I've posted last week that on and after 1/4 a period of favorability comes into focus. When you have the NAM state (NAO/AO) favorable and non-hostile PAC during a Nino many good things can happen. First off the subtropical jet is very active due to the Nino. At the same time the -AO dropping cold H pressure down from colder regions. Finally the -NAO block to plug the atmosphere up. That -NAO is the key as it gives the storm time, locks colder air in and keeps it from riding up too far.

Pay close attention to the ensembles until tomorrow then the OP models. I don't expect major synoptic changes with this and goal posts are being established. The coastal plain is in the game with this for a significant event potential, but expect some back and forth solutions between now and Wednesday there. I think the highest threat of a significant to potentially major event is west of I95.

It just might be the rubber can meet the road...

[Frank_Wx]

I’ve been keeping tabs of the JAN 5th-10th period while honeymoonin’ and am excited by what I see. I may need to write up another blog to talk about the storm threat(s) that are out there. Thank you to others providing analysis. We finally have legitimate storms to track

[dsix85]

Frank- congrats! Hope you are enjoying this special time with your wife. Exciting to see all the buzz on the board again, we have life!
Random question as I couldn’t find an answer, does the prospect of next weekends storm arrive around an astronomical high tide? I ask because when that’s at play we tend to see some enhancement on the overall storm. Any feedback is appreciated!

[heehaw453]

Note the difference of the Jet interaction here. The 06Z very good interaction enhancing the storm as it's hitting the coast. Note the 12Z the interaction is very minimal promoting development more offshore. It's only the difference between a few inch snow event vs a 1'. Synoptically I think the set up is not going to change much however s/w strength and phasing that's the wild card IMO. This is why the OP and to some degree ensembles solutions will vary wildly from run to run. That has to be reconciled before there is any confidence in this whatsoever. IMO of course.

[rb924119]

In my opinion, this is the GFS’ progressive bias on full display. Secondly, this is still within the window when models tend to “lose” storms only to bring them back a couple days later. As you said, synoptically, this setup looks really good to me, and that’s all I’m concerned with.

The GEM looks a bit better, but that has its own issues - as I mentioned yesterday, that now takes the low and mid-level circulations through PA/NY, which I feel is too far north. I like a blend between the GFS/GEM evolutions, with a track of the low and mid-level circulations through about northern Virginia/Maryland, and a sweet spot along the I-95 Corridor. As you mentioned yesterday, heehaw, the block is gaining amplitude, and you can see that in the run-to-run comparisons. Slow the flow, good things happen.

[jmanley32]

In my opinion, this is the GFS’ progressive bias on full display. Secondly, this is still within the window when models tend to “lose” storms only to bring them back a couple days later. As you said, synoptically, this setup looks really good to me, and that’s all I’m concerned with.

The GEM looks a bit better, but that has its own issues - as I mentioned yesterday, that now takes the low and mid-level circulations through PA/NY, which I feel is too far north. I like a blend between the GFS/GEM evolutions, with a track of the low and mid-level circulations through about northern Virginia/Maryland, and a sweet spot along the I-95 Corridor. As you mentioned yesterday, heehaw, the block is gaining amplitude, and you can see that in the run-to-run comparisons. Slow the flow, good things happen.

How much trouble will the coast have potentially? Not that it means much the NWS forecast says rain and snow likely for sat/sun. I hope we can cash in on something close to double digits too if that kind of total becomes clearer, of course I know the interior is always favored.

[rb924119]

In my opinion, this is the GFS’ progressive bias on full display. Secondly, this is still within the window when models tend to “lose” storms only to bring them back a couple days later. As you said, synoptically, this setup looks really good to me, and that’s all I’m concerned with.

The GEM looks a bit better, but that has its own issues - as I mentioned yesterday, that now takes the low and mid-level circulations through PA/NY, which I feel is too far north. I like a blend between the GFS/GEM evolutions, with a track of the low and mid-level circulations through about northern Virginia/Maryland, and a sweet spot along the I-95 Corridor. As you mentioned yesterday, heehaw, the block is gaining amplitude, and you can see that in the run-to-run comparisons. Slow the flow, good things happen.

How much trouble will the coast have potentially? Not that it means much the NWS forecast says rain and snow likely for sat/sun. I hope we can cash in on something close to double digits too if that kind of total becomes clearer, of course I know the interior is always favored.

Do you mean “trouble” as in flooding? No more than your usual storm, which is minimal to none, outside of your usual trouble spots. Wind shouldn’t be terribly strong either.

[jmanley32]

I’ve been keeping tabs of the JAN 5th-10th period while honeymoonin’ and am excited by what I see. I may need to write up another blog to talk about the storm threat(s) that are out there. Thank you to others providing analysis. We finally have legitimate storms to track

Congrats, Frank take it from a man married 11 years Jan 11th (many on here likely many more). Pay attention to her (especially on your honeymoon!) not the weather lol, hopefully she digs weather like you do but this is a 1x trip that you will always remember as special time with her and many more to come but theres nothing like your honeymoon.

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