Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

[sroc4]

Not sure why everyone has thrown the towel.  We have said that we have to wait until the weekend to clear last nights system out and see where we stand. An arctic air mass is knocking at the door. A tiny shift in strength in the southern stream and or timing could easily bring high ratio snows for some or bring the storm right back. I literally smack my head at those who cancel this storm already. Those who do will be the first to post their snow falling.

[Frank_Wx]

The short range models look amped up

Here’s this mornings RGEM



I wouldn’t pay attention to the precip type. It’s a cold air mass. Should snow unless somehow we’re dealing with a tucked low. It does feel like we took a step back at the 500mb level. Let’s see what happens today and tomorrow.

[crippo84]

Not sure why everyone has thrown the towel.  We have said that we have to wait until the weekend to clear last nights system out and see where we stand. An arctic air mass is knocking at the door. A tiny shift in strength in the southern stream and or timing could easily bring high ratio snows for some or bring the storm right back. I literally smack my head at those who cancel my his storm. Those who do will be the first to post their snow falling.

Putting too much faith in a Weather Channel GFS graphic... ?

[billg315]

To be honest, I wouldn’t be upset even with a nice 1-3”/2-4” snowfall Tuesday. Would cover the ground and with temps in the teens and 20s most of the week it ain’t going anywhere this week. Could be a nice table-setter for another storm later in the week.

[heehaw453]

Not sure why everyone has thrown the towel.  We have said that we have to wait until the weekend to clear last nights system out and see where we stand. An arctic air mass is knocking at the door. A tiny shift in strength in the southern stream and or timing could easily bring high ratio snows for some or bring the storm right back. I literally smack my head at those who cancel this storm already. Those who do will be the first to post their snow falling.

The voice of reason...

I'm in agreement with you it's too early to throw in the towel. This energy is too close to the coast to dismiss at 90 hours. What I thought was a large inhibitor to a large scale event was the lack of 50/50 to back the flow up. I believe if that was present even with the short wave madness that we've been discussing this had a much better chance. With the short wave madness coupled with a progressive flow a few inches is possible, but that IMO is in doubt and will depend on where a L pops off the EC.

[heehaw453]

The short range models look amped up

Here’s this mornings RGEM



I wouldn’t pay attention to the precip type. It’s a cold air mass. Should snow unless somehow we’re dealing with a tucked low. It does feel like we took a step back at the 500mb level. Let’s see what happens today and tomorrow.

There's no 50/50 coupled with a southerly flow. IMO east of the Fall Line would struggle to keep snow unless there is any enhancement to the L but the Atl flow is too progressive IMO.

[heehaw453]

Matty has brought up the 1/19-1/20 period before. This check mark is the difference maker in that setup to back up the flow and mitigate southerly flow. That provides more margin for error for things like this s/w nonsense this Tuesday. That h5 look would produce right the beaches.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Not sure why everyone has thrown the towel.  We have said that we have to wait until the weekend to clear last nights system out and see where we stand. An arctic air mass is knocking at the door. A tiny shift in strength in the southern stream and or timing could easily bring high ratio snows for some or bring the storm right back. I literally smack my head at those who cancel this storm already. Those who do will be the first to post their snow falling.

I didn't see any posts saying cancel it for Tuesday more along the lines of what I said which was expect 1 to as much as 5 inches in the luckiest jackpots. Seems reasonable now, but I wouldn't put much hope in 6 plus which is what was being output 2-3 days ago for many areas.

What does have me already perturbed is our severe cold shot looks now to be a week of 5-8 degree below normal for our new inflated normal followed by more above normal, remember most forum wide should top out somewhere in the 30's this time of year as a normal.

Sustained cold again eludes us, and sustained snowpack a dream from a season that no longer exists.

[Irish]

Not sure why everyone has thrown the towel.  We have said that we have to wait until the weekend to clear last nights system out and see where we stand. An arctic air mass is knocking at the door. A tiny shift in strength in the southern stream and or timing could easily bring high ratio snows for some or bring the storm right back. I literally smack my head at those who cancel this storm already. Those who do will be the first to post their snow falling.

I didn't see any posts saying cancel it for Tuesday more along the lines of what I said which was expect 1 to as much as 5 inches in the luckiest jackpots. Seems reasonable now, but I wouldn't put much hope in 6 plus which is what was being output 2-3 days ago for many areas.

What does have me already perturbed is our severe cold shot looks now to be a week of 5-8 degree below normal for our new inflated normal followed by more above normal, remember most forum wide should top out somewhere in the 30's this time of year as a normal.  

Sustained cold again eludes us, and sustained snowpack a dream from a season that no longer exists.

Exactly, "cold shots" 20+ years ago meant you were seeing single digits with negative wind chills. Now it means maybe it'll drop into the teens but more likely lows in the 20s.

[tomsriversnowstorm]

You are so right. I mean for me at the shore it looks like I could still get an inch or 2. I will be happy with that. Then we have another shot next Friday and Saturday which looks real good.

Not sure why everyone has thrown the towel.  We have said that we have to wait until the weekend to clear last nights system out and see where we stand. An arctic air mass is knocking at the door. A tiny shift in strength in the southern stream and or timing could easily bring high ratio snows for some or bring the storm right back. I literally smack my head at those who cancel this storm already. Those who do will be the first to post their snow falling.

[rb924119]

Not sure why everyone has thrown the towel.  We have said that we have to wait until the weekend to clear last nights system out and see where we stand. An arctic air mass is knocking at the door. A tiny shift in strength in the southern stream and or timing could easily bring high ratio snows for some or bring the storm right back. I literally smack my head at those who cancel this storm already. Those who do will be the first to post their snow falling.

I didn't see any posts saying cancel it for Tuesday more along the lines of what I said which was expect 1 to as much as 5 inches in the luckiest jackpots. Seems reasonable now, but I wouldn't put much hope in 6 plus which is what was being output 2-3 days ago for many areas.

What does have me already perturbed is our severe cold shot looks now to be a week of 5-8 degree below normal for our new inflated normal followed by more above normal, remember most forum wide should top out somewhere in the 30's this time of year as a normal.  

Sustained cold again eludes us, and sustained snowpack a dream from a season that no longer exists.

Exactly, "cold shots" 20+ years ago meant you were seeing single digits with negative wind chills. Now it means maybe it'll drop into the teens but more likely lows in the 20s.

So then what do you call the weather in the Central Plains for the next week, where actual air temperatures will be sub-zero? Even in “winter”, that’s still pretty anomalous, as is the fact that the almost the entire country will be substantially below average for an extended period of time (the next 7-9 days). That’s not an easy thing to achieve based on how the atmosphere works and wavelengths align. Not every cold pattern sets up in our back yard, just like not every snow storm hits our back yard. Ask the people in the southern Great Lakes how their winter is going now. They just hit 50% of their seasonal snowfall in the last five days, and now will see a stretch of pretty cold temps on top of that. Are you going to tell them that winter doesn’t exist? No offense, but it’s kind of getting annoying hearing that “oh, there’s no winter” or “so much for the pattern change”, when you actually look at the maps and see the entire country completely flip from an above-average December to a below-average January. Nobody here can help that we are getting unlucky in what is generally a favorable synoptic pattern for snow. And if snow is your only metric, then it is what it is. But that’s how it goes. Even in your supposedly “great” winters, there was heartbreak and warmups if you actually go back and look at the maps. We only tend to remember the good stretches and events because that’s what we love. Am I upset that my snowpack is now gone? Absolutely. But some little kid in Indiana just got to see back to back blizzards in a winter that’s been predicted by the powers that be (NWS) to be warm and snowless. What do I really have to complain about? We have had a run here in the Northeast the last 20 years of some of the wildest, most extreme winter weather events on the 120-year record. If anything, we have temporarily reverted back to how it used to be in all those winters that were supposedly so “great”.

End rant.

[rb924119]

On top of all of that, this whole pattern is looking to reload again, though from the Pacific side instead of the Atlantic side, before February again basis models. So we have 20 days below average, maybe five near to above, and then go back in the tank if the models are right. Is that something to throw away because we don’t have snow in our backyards this minute?

[Frank_Wx]

Couldn’t have said it better myself Ray

People can deny it all they want - the pattern, from surface to 500mb to 250mb - is nowhere close to where it was in December. I posted the temperature anomaly maps in the January Disco thread for anyone interested. The whole country is in the freezer for a good 10 days, and below normal departures persist beyond 10 days as well. Remains to be seen if that also includes our area or if it will be confined to just the Midwest. But once todays cold front moves through, we’re technically in a different state atmospherically speaking, aka pattern change.

[Irish]

Not sure why everyone has thrown the towel.  We have said that we have to wait until the weekend to clear last nights system out and see where we stand. An arctic air mass is knocking at the door. A tiny shift in strength in the southern stream and or timing could easily bring high ratio snows for some or bring the storm right back. I literally smack my head at those who cancel this storm already. Those who do will be the first to post their snow falling.

I didn't see any posts saying cancel it for Tuesday more along the lines of what I said which was expect 1 to as much as 5 inches in the luckiest jackpots. Seems reasonable now, but I wouldn't put much hope in 6 plus which is what was being output 2-3 days ago for many areas.

What does have me already perturbed is our severe cold shot looks now to be a week of 5-8 degree below normal for our new inflated normal followed by more above normal, remember most forum wide should top out somewhere in the 30's this time of year as a normal.  

Sustained cold again eludes us, and sustained snowpack a dream from a season that no longer exists.

Exactly, "cold shots" 20+ years ago meant you were seeing single digits with negative wind chills. Now it means maybe it'll drop into the teens but more likely lows in the 20s.

So then what do you call the weather in the Central Plains for the next week, where actual air temperatures will be sub-zero? Even in “winter”, that’s still pretty anomalous, as is the fact that the almost the entire  country will be substantially below average for an extended period of time (the next 7-9 days). That’s not an easy thing to achieve based on how the atmosphere works and wavelengths align. Not every cold pattern sets up in our back yard, just like not every snow storm hits our back yard. Ask the people in the southern Great Lakes how their winter is going now. They just hit 50% of their seasonal snowfall in the last five days, and now will see a stretch of pretty cold temps on top of that. Are you going to tell them that winter doesn’t exist? No offense, but it’s kind of getting annoying hearing that “oh, there’s no winter” or “so much for the pattern change”, when you actually look at the maps and see the entire country completely flip from an above-average December to a below-average January. Nobody here can help that we are getting unlucky in what is generally a favorable synoptic pattern for snow. And if snow is your only metric, then it is what it is. But that’s how it goes. Even in your supposedly “great” winters, there was heartbreak and warmups if you actually go back and look at the maps. We only tend to remember the good stretches and events because that’s what we love. Am I upset that my snowpack is now gone? Absolutely. But some little kid in Indiana just got to see back to back blizzards in a winter that’s been predicted by the powers that be (NWS) to be warm and snowless. What do I really have to complain about? We have had a run here in the Northeast the last 20 years of some of the wildest, most extreme winter weather events on the 120-year record. If anything, we have temporarily reverted back to how it used to be in all those winters that were supposedly so “great”.

End rant.

I call it an absolute anomaly, an outlier.  Our planet is getting hotter. 2023 was the hottest year we've ever had on record.   Just wow!

[phil155]

Not sure why everyone has thrown the towel.  We have said that we have to wait until the weekend to clear last nights system out and see where we stand. An arctic air mass is knocking at the door. A tiny shift in strength in the southern stream and or timing could easily bring high ratio snows for some or bring the storm right back. I literally smack my head at those who cancel this storm already. Those who do will be the first to post their snow falling.

I didn't see any posts saying cancel it for Tuesday more along the lines of what I said which was expect 1 to as much as 5 inches in the luckiest jackpots. Seems reasonable now, but I wouldn't put much hope in 6 plus which is what was being output 2-3 days ago for many areas.

What does have me already perturbed is our severe cold shot looks now to be a week of 5-8 degree below normal for our new inflated normal followed by more above normal, remember most forum wide should top out somewhere in the 30's this time of year as a normal.  

Sustained cold again eludes us, and sustained snowpack a dream from a season that no longer exists.

Exactly, "cold shots" 20+ years ago meant you were seeing single digits with negative wind chills. Now it means maybe it'll drop into the teens but more likely lows in the 20s.

So then what do you call the weather in the Central Plains for the next week, where actual air temperatures will be sub-zero? Even in “winter”, that’s still pretty anomalous, as is the fact that the almost the entire  country will be substantially below average for an extended period of time (the next 7-9 days). That’s not an easy thing to achieve based on how the atmosphere works and wavelengths align. Not every cold pattern sets up in our back yard, just like not every snow storm hits our back yard. Ask the people in the southern Great Lakes how their winter is going now. They just hit 50% of their seasonal snowfall in the last five days, and now will see a stretch of pretty cold temps on top of that. Are you going to tell them that winter doesn’t exist? No offense, but it’s kind of getting annoying hearing that “oh, there’s no winter” or “so much for the pattern change”, when you actually look at the maps and see the entire country completely flip from an above-average December to a below-average January. Nobody here can help that we are getting unlucky in what is generally a favorable synoptic pattern for snow. And if snow is your only metric, then it is what it is. But that’s how it goes. Even in your supposedly “great” winters, there was heartbreak and warmups if you actually go back and look at the maps. We only tend to remember the good stretches and events because that’s what we love. Am I upset that my snowpack is now gone? Absolutely. But some little kid in Indiana just got to see back to back blizzards in a winter that’s been predicted by the powers that be (NWS) to be warm and snowless. What do I really have to complain about? We have had a run here in the Northeast the last 20 years of some of the wildest, most extreme winter weather events on the 120-year record. If anything, we have temporarily reverted back to how it used to be in all those winters that were supposedly so “great”.

End rant.

I call it an absolute anomaly, an outlier.  Our planet is getting hotter. 2023 was the hottest year we've ever had on record.   Just wow!

I guess maybe we should not expect to see any snow going forward

[sroc4]

Not sure why everyone has thrown the towel.  We have said that we have to wait until the weekend to clear last nights system out and see where we stand. An arctic air mass is knocking at the door. A tiny shift in strength in the southern stream and or timing could easily bring high ratio snows for some or bring the storm right back. I literally smack my head at those who cancel this storm already. Those who do will be the first to post their snow falling.

I didn't see any posts saying cancel it for Tuesday more along the lines of what I said which was expect 1 to as much as 5 inches in the luckiest jackpots. Seems reasonable now, but I wouldn't put much hope in 6 plus which is what was being output 2-3 days ago for many areas.

What does have me already perturbed is our severe cold shot looks now to be a week of 5-8 degree below normal for our new inflated normal followed by more above normal, remember most forum wide should top out somewhere in the 30's this time of year as a normal.  

Sustained cold again eludes us, and sustained snowpack a dream from a season that no longer exists.

Exactly, "cold shots" 20+ years ago meant you were seeing single digits with negative wind chills. Now it means maybe it'll drop into the teens but more likely lows in the 20s.

We can choose to live I. The past or live in The present. Rapidly approaching 50 I know what the past yielded. I also will occasionally take part in the “in the past it used to be like this” conversation but you both seem to want to dwell on the past. I don’t care that it’s only 9 or 19 below avg. Its going to be colder than it has and it will feel good. End of story.

[Irish]

Not sure why everyone has thrown the towel.  We have said that we have to wait until the weekend to clear last nights system out and see where we stand. An arctic air mass is knocking at the door. A tiny shift in strength in the southern stream and or timing could easily bring high ratio snows for some or bring the storm right back. I literally smack my head at those who cancel this storm already. Those who do will be the first to post their snow falling.

I didn't see any posts saying cancel it for Tuesday more along the lines of what I said which was expect 1 to as much as 5 inches in the luckiest jackpots. Seems reasonable now, but I wouldn't put much hope in 6 plus which is what was being output 2-3 days ago for many areas.

What does have me already perturbed is our severe cold shot looks now to be a week of 5-8 degree below normal for our new inflated normal followed by more above normal, remember most forum wide should top out somewhere in the 30's this time of year as a normal.  

Sustained cold again eludes us, and sustained snowpack a dream from a season that no longer exists.

Exactly, "cold shots" 20+ years ago meant you were seeing single digits with negative wind chills. Now it means maybe it'll drop into the teens but more likely lows in the 20s.

So then what do you call the weather in the Central Plains for the next week, where actual air temperatures will be sub-zero? Even in “winter”, that’s still pretty anomalous, as is the fact that the almost the entire  country will be substantially below average for an extended period of time (the next 7-9 days). That’s not an easy thing to achieve based on how the atmosphere works and wavelengths align. Not every cold pattern sets up in our back yard, just like not every snow storm hits our back yard. Ask the people in the southern Great Lakes how their winter is going now. They just hit 50% of their seasonal snowfall in the last five days, and now will see a stretch of pretty cold temps on top of that. Are you going to tell them that winter doesn’t exist? No offense, but it’s kind of getting annoying hearing that “oh, there’s no winter” or “so much for the pattern change”, when you actually look at the maps and see the entire country completely flip from an above-average December to a below-average January. Nobody here can help that we are getting unlucky in what is generally a favorable synoptic pattern for snow. And if snow is your only metric, then it is what it is. But that’s how it goes. Even in your supposedly “great” winters, there was heartbreak and warmups if you actually go back and look at the maps. We only tend to remember the good stretches and events because that’s what we love. Am I upset that my snowpack is now gone? Absolutely. But some little kid in Indiana just got to see back to back blizzards in a winter that’s been predicted by the powers that be (NWS) to be warm and snowless. What do I really have to complain about? We have had a run here in the Northeast the last 20 years of some of the wildest, most extreme winter weather events on the 120-year record. If anything, we have temporarily reverted back to how it used to be in all those winters that were supposedly so “great”.

End rant.

I call it an absolute anomaly, an outlier.  Our planet is getting hotter. 2023 was the hottest year we've ever had on record.   Just wow!

I guess maybe we should not expect to see any snow going forward

Based on what's been happening, certainly less.
And not being negative, just a realist.  It is what it is. It won't stop me from hoping though.

[rb924119]

Not sure why everyone has thrown the towel.  We have said that we have to wait until the weekend to clear last nights system out and see where we stand. An arctic air mass is knocking at the door. A tiny shift in strength in the southern stream and or timing could easily bring high ratio snows for some or bring the storm right back. I literally smack my head at those who cancel this storm already. Those who do will be the first to post their snow falling.

I didn't see any posts saying cancel it for Tuesday more along the lines of what I said which was expect 1 to as much as 5 inches in the luckiest jackpots. Seems reasonable now, but I wouldn't put much hope in 6 plus which is what was being output 2-3 days ago for many areas.

What does have me already perturbed is our severe cold shot looks now to be a week of 5-8 degree below normal for our new inflated normal followed by more above normal, remember most forum wide should top out somewhere in the 30's this time of year as a normal.  

Sustained cold again eludes us, and sustained snowpack a dream from a season that no longer exists.

Exactly, "cold shots" 20+ years ago meant you were seeing single digits with negative wind chills. Now it means maybe it'll drop into the teens but more likely lows in the 20s.

So then what do you call the weather in the Central Plains for the next week, where actual air temperatures will be sub-zero? Even in “winter”, that’s still pretty anomalous, as is the fact that the almost the entire  country will be substantially below average for an extended period of time (the next 7-9 days). That’s not an easy thing to achieve based on how the atmosphere works and wavelengths align. Not every cold pattern sets up in our back yard, just like not every snow storm hits our back yard. Ask the people in the southern Great Lakes how their winter is going now. They just hit 50% of their seasonal snowfall in the last five days, and now will see a stretch of pretty cold temps on top of that. Are you going to tell them that winter doesn’t exist? No offense, but it’s kind of getting annoying hearing that “oh, there’s no winter” or “so much for the pattern change”, when you actually look at the maps and see the entire country completely flip from an above-average December to a below-average January. Nobody here can help that we are getting unlucky in what is generally a favorable synoptic pattern for snow. And if snow is your only metric, then it is what it is. But that’s how it goes. Even in your supposedly “great” winters, there was heartbreak and warmups if you actually go back and look at the maps. We only tend to remember the good stretches and events because that’s what we love. Am I upset that my snowpack is now gone? Absolutely. But some little kid in Indiana just got to see back to back blizzards in a winter that’s been predicted by the powers that be (NWS) to be warm and snowless. What do I really have to complain about? We have had a run here in the Northeast the last 20 years of some of the wildest, most extreme winter weather events on the 120-year record. If anything, we have temporarily reverted back to how it used to be in all those winters that were supposedly so “great”.

End rant.

I call it an absolute anomaly, an outlier.  Our planet is getting hotter. 2023 was the hottest year we've ever had on record.   Just wow!

You do realize that it was by less than a tenth of a degree, right? And that the vast majority of that “warmth” is over the poles during their winter, when it’s still several tens of degrees below zero Fahrenheit, right? If it’s +20°F with respect to average in an area that’s usually -50°F, does it really make a sensible difference? Nothing melts, it’s still frigid, and if it’s that “warm” up there it’s because of a blocked pattern, which means the cold air that normally resides at the pole has to get displaced toward the equator SOMEWHERE, which is EXACTLY what we are seeing now lmao the key is trying to figure out where exactly that displaced cold air will go from year to year. Last year it was out west. This year it’s further east. The cold doesn’t just disappear because it’s not cold in your back yard.

The vast majority of the planet, i.e. between 60°N and 60°S latitude average LESS THAN a half-degree Fahrenheit above average. Usually it’s closer to about 0.25°F. That’s where all people live, and where all people experience their day to day weather. Are you really going to try to tell me that 0.25°F is going to end our winters?

I’m not trying to be disrespectful, but to point out actual metrics and atmospheric processes to help you get a better sense of the situation.

[rb924119]

On top of that, things such as inflation of reported temperatures due to urbanization in cities is distorting the records. If you go to rural locations, the apparent increases in observed temperatures, which are mostly in the overnight lows, not the daily highs, which is even more of a sign that it’s not CO2 driving the change, but water vapor, the picture looks even less “dire”.

[Irish]

Not sure why everyone has thrown the towel.  We have said that we have to wait until the weekend to clear last nights system out and see where we stand. An arctic air mass is knocking at the door. A tiny shift in strength in the southern stream and or timing could easily bring high ratio snows for some or bring the storm right back. I literally smack my head at those who cancel this storm already. Those who do will be the first to post their snow falling.

I didn't see any posts saying cancel it for Tuesday more along the lines of what I said which was expect 1 to as much as 5 inches in the luckiest jackpots. Seems reasonable now, but I wouldn't put much hope in 6 plus which is what was being output 2-3 days ago for many areas.

What does have me already perturbed is our severe cold shot looks now to be a week of 5-8 degree below normal for our new inflated normal followed by more above normal, remember most forum wide should top out somewhere in the 30's this time of year as a normal.  

Sustained cold again eludes us, and sustained snowpack a dream from a season that no longer exists.

Exactly, "cold shots" 20+ years ago meant you were seeing single digits with negative wind chills. Now it means maybe it'll drop into the teens but more likely lows in the 20s.

So then what do you call the weather in the Central Plains for the next week, where actual air temperatures will be sub-zero? Even in “winter”, that’s still pretty anomalous, as is the fact that the almost the entire  country will be substantially below average for an extended period of time (the next 7-9 days). That’s not an easy thing to achieve based on how the atmosphere works and wavelengths align. Not every cold pattern sets up in our back yard, just like not every snow storm hits our back yard. Ask the people in the southern Great Lakes how their winter is going now. They just hit 50% of their seasonal snowfall in the last five days, and now will see a stretch of pretty cold temps on top of that. Are you going to tell them that winter doesn’t exist? No offense, but it’s kind of getting annoying hearing that “oh, there’s no winter” or “so much for the pattern change”, when you actually look at the maps and see the entire country completely flip from an above-average December to a below-average January. Nobody here can help that we are getting unlucky in what is generally a favorable synoptic pattern for snow. And if snow is your only metric, then it is what it is. But that’s how it goes. Even in your supposedly “great” winters, there was heartbreak and warmups if you actually go back and look at the maps. We only tend to remember the good stretches and events because that’s what we love. Am I upset that my snowpack is now gone? Absolutely. But some little kid in Indiana just got to see back to back blizzards in a winter that’s been predicted by the powers that be (NWS) to be warm and snowless. What do I really have to complain about? We have had a run here in the Northeast the last 20 years of some of the wildest, most extreme winter weather events on the 120-year record. If anything, we have temporarily reverted back to how it used to be in all those winters that were supposedly so “great”.

End rant.

I call it an absolute anomaly, an outlier.  Our planet is getting hotter. 2023 was the hottest year we've ever had on record.   Just wow!

You do realize that it was by less than a tenth of a degree, right? And that the vast majority of that “warmth” is over the poles during their winter, when it’s still several tens of degrees below zero Fahrenheit, right? If it’s +20°F with respect to average  in an area that’s usually -50°F, does it really make a sensible difference? Nothing melts, it’s still frigid, and if it’s that “warm” up there it’s because of a blocked pattern, which means the cold air that normally resides at the pole has to get displaced toward the equator SOMEWHERE, which is EXACTLY what we are seeing now lmao the key is trying to figure out where exactly that displaced cold air will go from year to year. Last year it was out west. This year it’s further east. The cold doesn’t just disappear because it’s not cold in your back yard.

The vast majority of the planet, i.e. between 60°N and 60°S latitude average LESS THAN a half-degree Fahrenheit above average. Usually it’s closer to about 0.25°F. That’s where all people live, and where all people experience their day to day weather. Are you really going to try to tell me that 0.25°F is going to end our winters?

I’m not trying to be disrespectful, but to point out actual metrics and atmospheric processes to help you get a better sense of the situation.

No, never said our winters are over. They're just changed, more mild and I don't see that changing any time soon.   I wish we could fast-forward 25-50 years and see the days of what those passed winters look like.  Change is literally happening all around us. The mass extinction event happening with plants and animals should be a clear sign of that change and cannot be ignored. 

This is surely banter, sorry.

[tomsriversnowstorm]

Your posts should be banter.

Not sure why everyone has thrown the towel.  We have said that we have to wait until the weekend to clear last nights system out and see where we stand. An arctic air mass is knocking at the door. A tiny shift in strength in the southern stream and or timing could easily bring high ratio snows for some or bring the storm right back. I literally smack my head at those who cancel this storm already. Those who do will be the first to post their snow falling.

I didn't see any posts saying cancel it for Tuesday more along the lines of what I said which was expect 1 to as much as 5 inches in the luckiest jackpots. Seems reasonable now, but I wouldn't put much hope in 6 plus which is what was being output 2-3 days ago for many areas.

What does have me already perturbed is our severe cold shot looks now to be a week of 5-8 degree below normal for our new inflated normal followed by more above normal, remember most forum wide should top out somewhere in the 30's this time of year as a normal.  

Sustained cold again eludes us, and sustained snowpack a dream from a season that no longer exists.

Exactly, "cold shots" 20+ years ago meant you were seeing single digits with negative wind chills. Now it means maybe it'll drop into the teens but more likely lows in the 20s.

So then what do you call the weather in the Central Plains for the next week, where actual air temperatures will be sub-zero? Even in “winter”, that’s still pretty anomalous, as is the fact that the almost the entire  country will be substantially below average for an extended period of time (the next 7-9 days). That’s not an easy thing to achieve based on how the atmosphere works and wavelengths align. Not every cold pattern sets up in our back yard, just like not every snow storm hits our back yard. Ask the people in the southern Great Lakes how their winter is going now. They just hit 50% of their seasonal snowfall in the last five days, and now will see a stretch of pretty cold temps on top of that. Are you going to tell them that winter doesn’t exist? No offense, but it’s kind of getting annoying hearing that “oh, there’s no winter” or “so much for the pattern change”, when you actually look at the maps and see the entire country completely flip from an above-average December to a below-average January. Nobody here can help that we are getting unlucky in what is generally a favorable synoptic pattern for snow. And if snow is your only metric, then it is what it is. But that’s how it goes. Even in your supposedly “great” winters, there was heartbreak and warmups if you actually go back and look at the maps. We only tend to remember the good stretches and events because that’s what we love. Am I upset that my snowpack is now gone? Absolutely. But some little kid in Indiana just got to see back to back blizzards in a winter that’s been predicted by the powers that be (NWS) to be warm and snowless. What do I really have to complain about? We have had a run here in the Northeast the last 20 years of some of the wildest, most extreme winter weather events on the 120-year record. If anything, we have temporarily reverted back to how it used to be in all those winters that were supposedly so “great”.

End rant.

I call it an absolute anomaly, an outlier.  Our planet is getting hotter. 2023 was the hottest year we've ever had on record.   Just wow!

You do realize that it was by less than a tenth of a degree, right? And that the vast majority of that “warmth” is over the poles during their winter, when it’s still several tens of degrees below zero Fahrenheit, right? If it’s +20°F with respect to average  in an area that’s usually -50°F, does it really make a sensible difference? Nothing melts, it’s still frigid, and if it’s that “warm” up there it’s because of a blocked pattern, which means the cold air that normally resides at the pole has to get displaced toward the equator SOMEWHERE, which is EXACTLY what we are seeing now lmao the key is trying to figure out where exactly that displaced cold air will go from year to year. Last year it was out west. This year it’s further east. The cold doesn’t just disappear because it’s not cold in your back yard.

The vast majority of the planet, i.e. between 60°N and 60°S latitude average LESS THAN a half-degree Fahrenheit above average. Usually it’s closer to about 0.25°F. That’s where all people live, and where all people experience their day to day weather. Are you really going to try to tell me that 0.25°F is going to end our winters?

I’m not trying to be disrespectful, but to point out actual metrics and atmospheric processes to help you get a better sense of the situation.

No, never said our winters are over. They're just changed, more mild and I don't see that changing any time soon.   I wish we could fast-forward 25-50 years and see the days of what those passed winters look like.  Change is literally happening all around us. The mass extinction event happening with plants and animals should be a clear sign of that change and cannot be ignored. 

This is surely banter, sorry.

[rb924119]

Woah, easy, Tom’s River, no need to make it personal. He’s entitled to his opinion just as you and I are. Debates are healthy and yeah, like I said, I’m frustrated too, but it’s important to maintain scientific integrity when making statements of ANY topic, which is what my objective is right now; to highlight what’s actually going on.

[tomsriversnowstorm]

I can’t see how his posts are not banter. He just wines and does not state any facts. Sorry just stating the truth.

Kinda annoying when we still have 2 systems to talk about. I know he may not be interested about Tuesday because it is mainly the coast who may get an inch or 2. Then after that we should be discussing the legit threat next weekend. This is not the place to discuss global warming.

Woah, easy, Tom’s River, no need to make it personal. He’s entitled to his opinion just as you and I are. Debates are healthy and yeah, like I said, I’m frustrated too, but it’s important to maintain scientific integrity when making statements of ANY topic, which is what my objective is right now; to highlight what’s actually going on.

[rb924119]

I can’t see how his posts are not banter. He just wines and does not state any facts. Sorry just stating the truth.

Woah, easy, Tom’s River, no need to make it personal. He’s entitled to his opinion just as you and I are. Debates are healthy and yeah, like I said, I’m frustrated too, but it’s important to maintain scientific integrity when making statements of ANY topic, which is what my objective is right now; to highlight what’s actually going on.

He acknowledged that it was banter, and so I continued there. This too is banter, so we should get back on track on this thread. But, again, let’s just keep it respectful

[sroc4]

Well done everyone keeping it respectful; yet getting your point across. And Ray/Irish. Nice job recognizing banter before the train became a runaway. THIS folks is how you have a disagreement. Back to the LR

[heehaw453]

The 18Z NAM IMO shows how a few inches are possible with this Tuesday.  The more that 500mb trough digs the higher the heights on the EC which will bring the energy more up and not out. The other models are close enough with energy to warrant attention IMO. The trough has to dig for anything meaningful IMO.

[heehaw453]

The SREFs are sniffing out a weak wave too. If 500mb trough is able to dig then a weak wave it all it would take for decent QPF with mid-level energy close to the coast.

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