Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I say we creat a separate storm thread for Tuesday.

[hyde345]

Stick a fork in it, it's done.

That's what you said last time.

And i'm sure you remember, it worked out pretty well for us. There is a method to my madness.  

Keep it up then.

[heehaw453]

I look at this way there's nothing extremely hostile in this particular setup that favors jumping ship at D4. Might not work out due to the short waves interacting poorly for a bigger storm, but a 200 miles shift in low pressure is a matter of the pitch of a ridge being slightly sharper or a s/w pivoting just a little differently.

This is not throw in the towel just yet IMO. If I see this on Sunday night or even worse, then different story.

18Z EPS

[rb924119]

I look at this way there's nothing extremely hostile in this particular setup that favors jumping ship at D4. Might not work out due to the short waves interacting poorly for a bigger storm, but a 200 miles shift in low pressure is a matter of the pitch of a ridge being slightly sharper or a s/w pivoting just a little differently.

This is not throw in the towel just yet IMO. If I see this on Sunday night or even worse, then different story.

18Z EPS

I just don’t like the look of the trough AT ALL. I think it’s going to remain a positively titled, strung out mess because it’s getting sheared.

[heehaw453]

I look at this way there's nothing extremely hostile in this particular setup that favors jumping ship at D4. Might not work out due to the short waves interacting poorly for a bigger storm, but a 200 miles shift in low pressure is a matter of the pitch of a ridge being slightly sharper or a s/w pivoting just a little differently.

This is not throw in the towel just yet IMO. If I see this on Sunday night or even worse, then different story.

18Z EPS

I just don’t like the look of the trough AT ALL. I think it’s going to remain a positively titled, strung out mess because it’s getting sheared.

I agree. If the trough stays positive this is probably a few inches type deal as it'll be cold in the upper levels for decent ratios. Just think more time is warranted as the model board is a bit busy with s/w's.

[heehaw453]

Then the NAM wants to be a coastal hugger. I guess tomorrow night it shows 150 miles E of the BM in true NAM style.

[rb924119]

I don’t even think we see that out of this, honestly. It’ll just pass through as an arctic front with very little precipitation associated with it. Just my opinion, though. But I think the initial northern stream energy is just gonna have way too much momentum for the rest of it to be able to round the base of the trough and catch up in order for the trough to tilt negative in time for us to capitalize on it.

[heehaw453]

I'm going bold and say CP breaks the 1" in a day drought (700+ days?) with this.

[rb924119]

If you want this to work, you need the vorticity circled in green to catch up to, and even more preferably, get out ahead of the main vorticity streamer at the leading edge of the trough.  But I don’t see that happening.

[rb924119]

I'm going bold and say CP breaks the 1" in a day drought (700+ days?) with this.

That IS bold

[heehaw453]

If you want this to work, you need the vorticity circled in green to catch up to, and even more preferably, get out ahead of the main vorticity streamer at the leading edge of the trough.  But I don’t see that happening.

I agree with you as modelled if that s/w is right under the trough it cannot dig and won't be able to tilt out of positive position to raise heights, etc. but I'm saying maybe it's just not modelled accurately ATTM. That underpinning s/w is way out in remote Pacific ATTM and it's a small piece broken from where the X is. I just don't think that is reliable quite yet.

[Irish]

Predictions for my area on TWC have gone from 4-8, to 2-6, and are now 2-4. Not the right direction.

[docstox12]

Stick a fork in it, it's done.

That's what you said last time.

And i'm sure you remember, it worked out pretty well for us. There is a method to my madness.  

It's working already! Earlier in the day, NWS had me for maybe 6 hours of snow, Tuesday 2 PM to 8PM.Now, it's snow likely 60% Tuesday, Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
I will now fade into the background and let the CP magic do its thing!

[heehaw453]

Predictions for my area on TWC have gone from 4-8, to 2-6, and are now 2-4.  Not the right direction.  

I think their front applications are very aligned to GFS output at least that's what I notice when I look at their app. And I agree I'd surely like to see models start going the other way.

[rb924119]

If you want this to work, you need the vorticity circled in green to catch up to, and even more preferably, get out ahead of the main vorticity streamer at the leading edge of the trough.  But I don’t see that happening.

I agree with you as modelled if that s/w is right under the trough it cannot dig and won't be able to tilt out of positive position to raise heights, etc. but I'm saying maybe it's just not modelled accurately ATTM. That underpinning s/w is way out in remote Pacific ATTM and it's a small piece broken from where the X is. I just don't think that is reliable quite yet.

That’s fair. Just looking at the models more closely, to me it seems like that energy is going to shear out like stretching gum, rather than just snapping down and sinking body and soul into the CONUS, which is what we need. I just don’t see enough ridging building into EPO domain to sever that connection quick enough. And you can see the signature in all threeajor ensembles as well. As you said, though, there’s still time for that to change.

[rb924119]

Predictions for my area on TWC have gone from 4-8, to 2-6, and are now 2-4.  Not the right direction.  

I think their front applications are very aligned to GFS output at least that's what I notice when I look at their app. And I agree I'd surely like to see models start going the other way.

I believe you are correct - it’s just raw GFS Operational data taken for your gridded location.

[heehaw453]

00Z GFS going to have WC saying cloudy soon

I'll leave at s/w's at this range a bit hard to predict and personally I'll wait until Sunday for changes as by that time things are close enough for better data analysis.

The trough needs to act like a battering ram with energy out ahead of it. Hard to do that when it's underneath it.

[Irish]

CMC and GFS are both swings and misses, OTS.

[hyde345]

CMC and GFS are both swings and misses, OTS.

Cmc is not a swing and miss. It brings the area 3-5 and then more this weekend. The GFS is a disaster. The nam and Icon also brought snow to the area.

[Irish]

CMC and GFS are both swings and misses, OTS.

Cmc is not a swing and miss. It brings the area 3-5 and then more this weekend. The GFS is a disaster. The nam and Icon also brought snow to the area.

OK, good, let's see where it goes.

[Irish]

The storm for the 15th-16th looks to continue to fade away.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

The storm for the 15th-16th looks to continue to fade away.

That's not quite accurate. The potential for a more moderate 6 plus event seems to be fading but a widespread 1 to as much as 5 in the jackpot areas still in play on several models. 12Z runs today should give us a clearer picture.

[Irish]

The storm for the 15th-16th looks to continue to fade away.

That's not quite accurate. The potential for a more moderate 6 plus event seems to be fading but a widespread 1 to as much as 5 in the jackpot areas still in play on several models. 12Z runs today should give us a clearer picture.

Right, what I'm saying is the discussions of this storm going godzilla are over.  It seems that getting 2-4 is the top end and in many locations you may only see an inch.  I hope I'm wrong and it shifts in our favor, someone's favor at least.

[docstox12]

The storm for the 15th-16th looks to continue to fade away.

That's not quite accurate. The potential for a more moderate 6 plus event seems to be fading but a widespread 1 to as much as 5 in the jackpot areas still in play on several models. 12Z runs today should give us a clearer picture.

Right, what I'm saying is the discussions of this storm going godzilla are over.  It seems that getting 2-4 is the top end and in many locations you may only see an inch.  I hope I'm wrong and it shifts in our favor, someone's favor at least.

In even a good winter, now called Wall, there are storms in the 2 to 4 inch range that freshen up a snowpack.Wait!!! Just what is a snowpack, I seem to remember something like that in the far distant neurons that have fried over the years.

[heehaw453]

Here's my sentiment and detailed perspective of this storm.

https://media2.giphy.com/media/wqbAfFwjU8laXMWZ09/giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e4747kgdlpazjfgcqfhnjosz8uq7tgv5ry9m3b3gq23&ep=v1_gifs_search&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g

[sroc4]

Not sure why everyone has thrown the towel.  We have said that we have to wait until the weekend to clear last nights system out and see where we stand. An arctic air mass is knocking at the door. A tiny shift in strength in the southern stream and or timing could easily bring high ratio snows for some or bring the storm right back. I literally smack my head at those who cancel this storm already. Those who do will be the first to post their snow falling.

[Frank_Wx]

The short range models look amped up

Here’s this mornings RGEM



I wouldn’t pay attention to the precip type. It’s a cold air mass. Should snow unless somehow we’re dealing with a tucked low. It does feel like we took a step back at the 500mb level. Let’s see what happens today and tomorrow.

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