Re: Long Range Thread 27.0

[Dunnzoo]

I know that it is just the lack of post that had me concerned. Usually people are posting like crazy when good news is happening.

Is the pattern change still happening? It has been very quiet.

I think it takes a week or two for the shift in gears to be apparent.Hang in there, we have a LOT of winter to go.

I like Jan 4th-10th for our first snow

Just in time for my birthday!

[tomsriversnowstorm]

Awesome thank you

I know that it is just the lack of post that had me concerned. Usually people are posting like crazy when good news is happening.

Is the pattern change still happening? It has been very quiet.

I think it takes a week or two for the shift in gears to be apparent.Hang in there, we have a LOT of winter to go.

I like Jan 4th-10th for our first snow

[Frank_Wx]

U10-60 winds are still being forecasted to reverse by the ECM & CFS in the 2nd week of January. The GFS and GEFS are getting close to this idea but are not quite there yet.




Need a few more days of consensus before jumping on this train. Even so, no guarantees yet that this SSW will benefit North America. We have to see where the SPV gets displaced to.

[heehaw453]

Pretty convincing that the colder air has good cross polar flow via the -EPO and +PNA. This is not anomalously cold air, but certainly it's deep enough and cold enough for snow.

I'd have to say if we don't have some accumulating snow by first week of January I'd call that pretty disappointing.

[phil155]

Pretty convincing that the colder air has good cross polar flow via the -EPO and +PNA. This is not anomalously cold air, but certainly it's deep enough and cold enough for snow.

I'd have to say if we don't have some accumulating snow by first week of January I'd call that pretty disappointing.

I have to agree, if we do not see some measurable snow by the end of the first week of January or maybe the 10th or so it would not be a good sign for the winter

[frank 638]

Just heard from Lee Goldberg on New Year’s Eve or New Year’s Day. It’s gonna be very, very cold.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Pretty convincing that the colder air has good cross polar flow via the -EPO and +PNA. This is not anomalously cold air, but certainly it's deep enough and cold enough for snow.

I'd have to say if we don't have some accumulating snow by first week of January I'd call that pretty disappointing.

No measurable snow by Christmas Day is now a first for me. Disappointing doesn't even begin to describe it.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Just heard from Lee Goldberg on New Year’s Eve or New Year’s Day. It’s gonna be very, very cold.

What he's referring to when he says very cold, unfortunately is temperatures more aligned with what they should be on the calendar date. Just goes to show how bad things have been.

[nutleyblizzard]

Pretty convincing that the colder air has good cross polar flow via the -EPO and +PNA. This is not anomalously cold air, but certainly it's deep enough and cold enough for snow.

I'd have to say if we don't have some accumulating snow by first week of January I'd call that pretty disappointing.

As long as the cold air has some staying power the snow will come.

[heehaw453]

This certainly is not the look of medium term snowfall. Of course at that range they aren't very useful as tomorrow's runs may show something different. Just think before end of December may be just a bit too soon for the cold to settle in. Would take something well timed with some injection of cold air.


Probability of >= 1" snowfall euro and gfs ensembles before end of year

[heehaw453]

I'd say January 4th would be a legit threat window. Ensembles hinting at this. This kind of setup that could produce a moderate to potentially significant snow event. The key is the cold air and that setup supplies it.

[heehaw453]

GEFS starting to really tank the NAO. It's been leading the way on that as Euro and Canadian are starting to follow. Want big snow chances in a Nino? it'll start with blocking.

[heehaw453]

As has been said the 28-31 is the only shot for snow in these parts in December. IF some folks get anything it'll be this ULL. That's a pretty decent and undisturbed ridge which should help with its strength. Now if a s/w can be ignited as this cold air bleeds down then eastern zones IMO are possible for something. Right now I'd say SNE to coastal ME, but possible ELI. I believe height rises make it feasible to consider.

[amugs]

JB using his sloshtub effect theory on that brutal cold could be in store once this pattern flips midih to late Jan.
I told freind back in late Nov that I believed we have 2 major arctic outbreaks maybe 3 (not happening now thought one for Dec) from what I was seeing and analogs.

[phil155]

Bobby Martrich still seems pretty bullish on the rest of the winter and he is not one to hype things up

[heehaw453]

Strong blocking signal at this range of the GEFS. TPV north of Hudson Bay probably ensures more Canadian cold will be pressing down to continental US. This January pattern is vastly different than last year for the better so I don't think it's a stretch or wishful thinking to expect at least average snowfall for the month. AN that takes luck as we know.

[dkodgis]

Looks like some night cold temps by next weekend round these parts. Just sayin’

[weatherwatchermom]

Looks like some night cold temps by next weekend round these parts. Just sayin’

fingers crossed!!

[sroc4]

I hope everyone had a great day yesterday.  There is def opportunity.  AO and NAO are going neg.  Never a bad thing, but looking over the next couple weeks like....

[heehaw453]

I think sroc is right. A shutout look is not what's in front of us but certainly if we went first 10 days of January with no measurable (at least on the coastal plain) I wouldn't be shocked, surprised yes. At some point the rubber meets the road in terms of snow or it doesn't with the winter. I will say this though remainder of December chances are probably nill and if we do burn through first 10 days of January empty handed then that would be prime climatology and that cannot be wasted if we expect things to turn around.

[dkodgis]

I knew I should not not have bought the snowblower

[MattyICE]

Agreed. I try to keep reminding myself that this winter was always favored to be backloaded. I think that’s pre-loading with positive wave breaking events, the SSWE drawing closer, and the NAO looking increasingly negative as the long range draws closer. I want to believe that even if we DO eat the first ten days that we could STILL rock from Jan 15 - early March. But that creeping PTSD from last season taps me on the other shoulder quite frequently.

[Irish]

I knew I should not not have bought the snowblower

I got mine fixed last winter to the tune of $250.  Not a flake since.   My wife hates the cold and we've been talking about retiring to a warmer area. I told her if this continues, we'll already be here. Never snows anymore and temps are constantly in the 50s in the winter here.

[amugs]

Hope everyone had a great Christmas.
GEFS for New Years Day and day after.
Nice trough in SE and heading NE.  Time will tell but once we start the flip after the storm this week things become clearer

[heehaw453]

There's some blocking being shown here along with the Atlantic trough. As long as nothing disturbs the ULL there's a chance for something with a ridge like that. The key IMO will be the Greenland blocking giving time for the s/w to develop.

[Koroptim]

Things have gotten so bad, we spend more time tracking transient cold air than tracking actual snowstorms. It’s pretty pathetic how bad our winters are becoming. Somewhat kills the mood of Christmas when temps are in the 50’s at 1,100 feet in NW NJ. I know this should be in banter

[heehaw453]

I've been focusing on the 1/4 time frame and thereafter. In a Nino we get much better chances of s/w development as the blocking starts to pinch off n/s energy into an active subtropical jet. Note the progression of the storms as the blocking starts to increase. It's timing here as long as that blocking is with us then we have a decent shot.

https://mediastorage453.blob.core.windows.net/public/ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1703592000-1704369600-1704628800-40.gif

https://mediastorage453.blob.core.windows.net/public/ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-mslp_with_low_locs-1703592000-1704369600-1704672000-40.gif

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