January 2024 Observations and Discussion

Upton's latest disco

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
No major changes with the 12Z model cycle with the general idea of
the low for this weekend. There remain some differences wrt the
exact track however. The ECMWF is the furthest N, and looks like an
outlier when compared to the GFS and GEM, which are further S. The
GFS Ensemble mean is even further S, so the fcst has been tweaked
towards a more sly, colder soln.

The models are often too warm with sfc temps this far out,
particularly on the cold side of the sys. Couple this with a spread
in tracks, and the NBM looks too warm attm. The end result could be
warmer if the track ends up farther N, but based on the GFS ensemble
and the low not getting to 40N, blended the NBM10 percent with the
CONSALL for sfc temps late Sat thru Sun.

Based on the expected nely winds, a coastal front would likely
develop across sern LI and possibly into sern CT, adding another
layer to the temp complexity. This boundary should delineate a
mainly all rain event from snow or a mixed event.

The low is progged to get around 999 by 12Z Sun per the GFS, but
there is some model spread in the intensity as well. The GEM appears
to be the deepest, getting down to around 988. This signals that a
big wind event is not expected attm. The deepest low soln would
likely yield peak gusts around 40kt for sern areas.

For snowfall, in general this looks like a 4-8 inch with locally
higher amounts sys where it remains all snow N and W of NYC, 3-6
most of the area, and 2-4 or less much of LI and the ern CT coast.
Again this is all subject to change, with a track to the N bringing
more rain and a track further S beginning to limit pcpn amounts.

Will add a mention in the HWO for the 4-8 inch zone.

Dunnzoo wrote:NWS update:

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
332 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2024

CTZ005-006-NJZ002-004-103-104-NYZ067>070-042045-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-
332 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

An offshore low is expected to produce snow, possibly mixed with rain
at times, Saturday night into Sunday. The potential exists for 4 to 8
inches of snow.

Of course southern WC is left out, wont take much to add us though and the discussion mentions 3-6 which I would be more than willing to take as opposed to nada.

18Z RGEM. Going to have to see where that mid level energy tracks. As modelled a bit too close for I95.



If I had to guess that now I'd say like this line. Inside the BM track crosses over Cape Cod.

heehaw453 wrote:18Z RGEM. Going to have to see where that mid level energy tracks. As modelled a bit too close for I95.



If I had to guess that now I'd say like this line. Inside the BM track crosses over Cape Cod.

Agreed. Verbatim, you’re right. But again, it should end up further southeast than this. I think, anyway.

Hello everyone! I am back from vacation. I started a storm thread to discuss the late weekend storm threat. Please move the disco over there. Thank you!

Welcome back Frank .happy new year

Snowing at 32 degrees, sticking to grass and cars, 3:30 in the am!


     Good Luck !

32 degrees, cloudy, calm winds.Had a dusting of snow last night.Maybe plowable if you are a Chipmunk.

35* and calm conditions in Long Branch, exit 120 of the GSP.

6 years ago this morning, I woke up to 10” on the ground and 2-3”/hr falling from the skies. Looking forward to the next coming, whenever that happens to be, but hopefully sooner than later!

Light rain here. Can’t even get moodflakes lol.

39 degrees, partly sunny and wind has picked up.Had flurries before.Rain showers and flurries on radar all around.

24 degrees, partly cloudy, calm winds.
Latest NWS briefing 6-10 likely here with a chance for 12-14.Talk about hedging your bet,LOL.This reminds me of the snowstorms back in the day when "areas N and W of the City" would be forecast for more snow.I lived in Fort Lee NJ back then and would see this happen time after time.

Light flurries at 8:15 am.

20* for my low this morning brrrrr!! Wish it would hold!

19 degrees, high clouds moving in, calm winds.

cloudy, 28* in New Hope, standing by for whatever precipitation ends up coming our way...

Next storm looks potentially damaging with flooding rain high wind warning winds and coastal flooding. How many if these we had now since jan 2023 basically every weekend in the fall now this will b first of many many more for 2024.

jmanley32 wrote:Next storm looks potentially damaging with flooding rain high wind warning winds and coastal flooding. How many if these we had now since jan 2023 basically every weekend in the fall now this will b first of many many more for 2024.

2" plus of rain
40-60 mph wind gusts strong along coast
2-4' surge resulting in moderate coastal flooding. Have to check lunar cycle if it increases this or not

amugs wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Next storm looks potentially damaging with flooding rain high wind warning winds and coastal flooding. How many if these we had now since jan 2023 basically every weekend in the fall now this will b first of many many more for 2024.

2" plus of rain
40-60 mph wind gusts strong along coast
2-4' surge resulting in moderate coastal flooding. Have to check lunar cycle if it increases this or not

yeah models have it more intense too the winds could be a bit of a problem with all the flooding. The grounds gotta be saturated to the core of the planet by now lol

24 degrees out at 10:36 in the pm, was on rt 80 west by the Delaware Water Gap today and saw about 50 First Energy trucks from Ohio heading east bound, good to know the Electric companies are getting the workers in place before the storm hits. Hopefully everyone stays dry tomorrow, this is my Raccoon friend, comes and hangs out at my house for the last 3 years!
          Good Luck!

Love that

1190ftalt wrote:24 degrees out at 10:36 in the pm, was on rt 80 west by the Delaware Water Gap today and saw about 50 First Energy trucks from Ohio heading east bound, good to know the Electric companies are getting the workers in place before the storm hits. Hopefully everyone stays dry tomorrow, this is my Raccoon friend, comes and hangs out at my house for the last 3 years!
          Good Luck!

Glad to hear they are preparing as well ..and what a cutie. reminds me..my mom used to throw stale bread and cookies out to the birds and squirrels and one squirrel started ringing the bell to get a cookie I kid you not..we all laughed at my mom and thought she was joking until one afternoon I am visiting and the freaking door bell rings and its the squirrel...that went on for a year...thanks for sharing your friend and reminding me of my mom... Miss her so ..

1190ftalt wrote:24 degrees out at 10:36 in the pm, was on rt 80 west by the Delaware Water Gap today and saw about 50 First Energy trucks from Ohio heading east bound, good to know the Electric companies are getting the workers in place before the storm hits. Hopefully everyone stays dry tomorrow, this is my Raccoon friend, comes and hangs out at my house for the last 3 years!
          Good Luck!

Rare you see a friendly racoon, I have had run in's with them and they can be pretty nasty especially mama with her babies, I had no idea they could stand like that!

I’m gonna pull a CP here…..



THIS SUCKS!! 12 hours from now it’s gonna be p***ing rain and blowing like a typhoon, and right now it’s 16°. What’s worse is it’s gonna be an absolute skating rink for a while when the rain hits this ground and freezes solid. Hopefully we get an inch or two of snow quickly at the beginning to help mitigate that issue a bit, but, then we get rain-soaked snow on very tall timber with high winds. It’s a lose-lose no matter what lol oh well. I’m just praying none of us ends up in the Land of Oz hahaha

Oy, 1-2-3 punch jeeze

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Another southern stream trough will be moving onshore of the
Pacific northwest midweek and tracks quickly to the east coast
by Friday night. Before the arrival of another strong low late
Friday a weak upper ridge and weak surface high will be across
portions of the northeast and Mid Atlantic regions.

The upper trough and surface low will be tracking well inland
Friday night into Saturday with an occluded low tracking through
the area Saturday. With a low level jet of 60-70kt developing
Friday night and the low level low over the region, along with
precipitable water increasing to 1 to 1.25 inches, another round
of moderate to heavy rainfall is becoming more likely Friday
night into Saturday morning. Also, with the strong low level and
upper dynamics, and elevated CAPE up to 300 J/kg, isolated
thunder is becoming more likely during the same timeframe as the
heavy rainfall. The is the potential for another flooding event
as WPC have placed all the area in at least a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall, with an inland portion in a slight risk.
Finally, with the strong winds another high wind event is also
becoming more likely.

The low tracks northward through Eastern Canada late Saturday
through Sunday with a strong westerly flow developing across
the region as the precipitation comes to an end. Some wrap
around moisture may move into the northwest portions Saturday
night into Sunday with snow showers, or flurries possible.
However, with the westerly flow drying will be likely and
precipitation may not make it too far toward the coast.

There is a chance of yet another low tracking toward the area
for next Monday.

20 degrees, partly cloudy, calm winds.They are calling for a period of snow before the rain starts.Still 9 inches OTG so this whole thing will be a s__tshow.From rb's wind analysis, at least the snowpack will keep the highest wind away from me as it won't be able to mix down.

28* for my low temp with lots of black ice going to 54*
2.5" of snow pack will be gone in 12 hours!