January 2024 Observations and Discussion

Yup, wife says it's been nice steady light snow for about an hour now up in Hopatcong. Nice little refresher of the snowpack.

Hoping for great things for our central/southern crew with this one. If we squeak out another 2-3 inches up here in Sussex, that's a bonus. Still have about 2 inches OTG from the last storm so no complaints. Maybe we all end up with a nice 4-6 inch snowpack by tomorrow night, state-wide.

When's the last time that happened?

Was able to take a (very) quick look at latest model runs. Interesting that the totals for my area have been upped to 3-5/4-6". That is consistent with some of the short range guidance and the HRRR. But the NAM, GFS, Euro still seem more consistent with a 1-3/2-4 inch event.

billg315 wrote:Was able to take a (very) quick look at latest model runs. Interesting that the totals for my area have been upped to 3-5/4-6". That is consistent with some of the short range guidance and the HRRR. But the NAM, GFS, Euro still seem more consistent with a 1-3/2-4 inch event.

NWS has me at 1 to 3 and will be very happy to get two on the northern fringe of this.Nice little snowpack refresher and hoping the southern and eastern crew gets the 4 to 6!

National weather service has me for 1 to 3 inches of snow

frank 638 wrote:National weather service has me for 1 to 3 inches of snow

imo wont take much to see more. Not alot more but a few inches to the higher end.

Hopefully 00Z tonight runs are more inspiring than 12Z.

12Z quite...

Although nothing really changed. The ULL is still progged to strengthen as it's approaching the coast. We'll see soon enough.

Does that mean amounts will be less? Would Coastal Jersey still be ok?

heehaw453 wrote:Hopefully 00Z tonight runs are more inspiring than 12Z.

12Z quite...

https://media0.giphy.com/media/tmQrpA8zpG4a16SSxm/giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e47k25odkedl5nwqr8asra3ro3lrb0j867nu8ivnx0z&ep=v1_gifs_search&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:
Does that mean amounts will be less? Would Coastal Jersey still be ok?

heehaw453 wrote:Hopefully 00Z tonight runs are more inspiring than 12Z.

12Z quite...

https://media0.giphy.com/media/tmQrpA8zpG4a16SSxm/giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e47k25odkedl5nwqr8asra3ro3lrb0j867nu8ivnx0z&ep=v1_gifs_search&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g

Not sure in the end if 12Z is onto something. Doesn't change my thinking on the system's snowfall though.

jmanley32 wrote:

frank 638 wrote:National weather service has me for 1 to 3 inches of snow

imo wont take much to see more. Not alot more but a few inches to the higher end.

at this point I will be happy with even 4 inches tired of the 1 inch snow fall lol

Light snow for an hour here dusting on the walks,Nice mood flakes for a formerly Winter, now Wall day.

Heehaw what happened on 12z was it pos or neg? On surface it looked like amounts were decreased verbatim.

Does tomorrows storm not get a thread

WSW issued for parts of NJ. 6-7"

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
248 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2024

NJZ020-027-191100-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.240119T0900Z-240120T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0002.240119T0900Z-240120T0300Z/
Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-
Including the cities of Jackson and Wharton State Forest
248 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6
inches. Rain will mix with snow during the day Friday near the
coasts.

* WHERE...Ocean and Southeastern Burlington.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 10 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will rapidly drop into the
teens late Friday night. Any untreated roads will become icy
and dangerous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

DWay wrote:Does tomorrows storm not get a thread

No thread for this one, every time one was started it jinxed the storm

aiannone wrote:WSW issued for parts of NJ. 6-7"

Lines up with the area the norlun trough feature being hinted at by the models yesterday was oriented. Those can always boost snow totals well above areas just north and south of it. Wouldn't surprise me to see that zone get 6+ inches with areas north and south of it sticking more in the 2-4" range.

Just got the phone call..snow warning .at least it was not at 3 am like the last couple of weather warnings..I was a wake and shopping...not milk and bread...lol books...

Just got a warning on my phone for 6 to 7 inches in Eatontown

Are you guys seeing these amounts (4-6" for wide swath of NJ?).. I'm seeing from 195 and south about 3-4" and north of 195 (not I-95) about 1-2".  I'm not sure of their thinking with these amounts.  Appreciate any thoughts.  Thanks.

12z continues to trend less impressive north of 78 in NJ. There isn’t much reliable guidance that currently suggests the last second northern push is coming - yet History suggests it will. I suppose 0z could adjust slightly north? But if you’re currently north of NYC it’ll be a struggle imo to get more than a 1-2 type of accumulation. Could come down to nowcasting tomorrow! If it ends up this way congrats to C/S NJ, they’ve earned a jackpot.

23 degrees ,cloudy, light winds.
Good to see the Central, South and Shore Crew in NJ lined up for 6 to 7 inches! I will be happy to get my two enjoying watching it come down tomorrow and reading the happy posts!

JT33 wrote:
Are you guys seeing these amounts (4-6" for wide swath of NJ?).. I'm seeing from 195 and south about 3-4" and north of 195 (not I-95) about 1-2".  I'm not sure of their thinking with these amounts.  Appreciate any thoughts.  Thanks.

I like it! Looks like those 4-6 amounts will carry onto Long Island. Although that's not what Upton is thinking.

ooof 18z nam is rough

The h5 trough is impressive and the key is the strengthening as it moves towards the coast.  Heaviest with this IMO as shown would be south of I78. There is still is wiggle room 25-30 miles IMO

WWA issued for NENJ and southern westchester/nyc.

heehaw453 wrote:The h5 trough is impressive and the key is the strengthening as it moves towards the coast.  Heaviest with this IMO as shown would be south of I78. There is still is wiggle room 25-30 miles IMO

There is going to be nasty subsidence/dry air to the north of wherever this band sets up. Likely this will be north of I-78 as you said. I think NYC/LI and especially north of the city should really temper expectations and watch for subsidence/dry air to the north of the action down south