January 2024 Observations and Discussion

20 degrees, partly cloudy, calm winds.They are calling for a period of snow before the rain starts.Still 9 inches OTG so this whole thing will be a s__tshow.From rb's wind analysis, at least the snowpack will keep the highest wind away from me as it won't be able to mix down.

28* for my low temp with lots of black ice going to 54*
2.5" of snow pack will be gone in 12 hours!

28* for low this morning. 41* currently. wind 10mph from the se

27 degrees, light snow, light winds.Light snow started 10:50 am.

It was 16 at 5 am. At 12:15, snowing for the last hour and a half with a qtr inch down. 32 now. Will be 50 by midnight

Light rain, 37* in New Hope; snow still in place on North facing slopes, edges of roads that were plowed previously...

Central Park stands at .2" of snow with no prospect for more until at least 1/15. In 150+ years of record keeping only 11 single digit snow falls have been recorded at the Park for a season. NEVER has there been two consecutive.

41 degrees at 11:35 in the am, still have 2 to 3 inches of snow left , supposed to go down to 28 tonight so will be around for a while! Hope everyone stayed dry!
     Good Luck !

Right there with ya, 1190, our snowpack took a beating, but we still have 4-6" on the ground from what was about 11" when the rain first started. Now it's going to turn into a glacier, but hey, at least it looks and feels like winter still

Fri/Sat looking to be somewhat comparable to the last one, rainfall was increased to nearly 2 inches+ and windgusts to 40mph and 50+ along coast. Not quite as intense but still impactful. However this time there appears thwere will be strong inversion which could limit winds mixing down. Also mented thunder as there will be some ML/Cape about 500 Jkg.

39* for the low winds 12mph west...another gloomy day...

Doesn't tomorrows storm warrant a thread? It could be pretty impactful, not quite as much as the last one but I still think it bears discussion. And there's no jinx this one if anything if there is a thread it won't be as bad.

jmanley32 wrote:Doesn't tomorrows storm warrant a thread? It could be pretty impactful, not quite as much as the last one but I still think it bears discussion. And there's no jinx this one if anything if there is a thread it won't be as bad.

Go ahead JMAN start one - maybe you'll bring the goods this time??

amugs wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Doesn't tomorrows storm warrant a thread? It could be pretty impactful, not quite as much as the last one but I still think it bears discussion. And there's no jinx this one if anything if there is a thread it won't be as bad.

Go ahead JMAN start one - maybe you'll bring the goods this time??

EURO says what storm?

jmanley32 wrote:Doesn't tomorrows storm warrant a thread? It could be pretty impactful, not quite as much as the last one but I still think it bears discussion. And there's no jinx this one if anything if there is a thread it won't be as bad.

Looks like 1.5" of rain and 40 mph gusts, sustained near 20-25mph.

Frank_Wx wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Doesn't tomorrows storm warrant a thread? It could be pretty impactful, not quite as much as the last one but I still think it bears discussion. And there's no jinx this one if anything if there is a thread it won't be as bad.

Looks like 1.5" of rain and 40 mph gusts, sustained near 20-25mph.

= new normal/typical rain storm...

weatherwatchermom wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Doesn't tomorrows storm warrant a thread? It could be pretty impactful, not quite as much as the last one but I still think it bears discussion. And there's no jinx this one if anything if there is a thread it won't be as bad.

Looks like 1.5" of rain and 40 mph gusts, sustained near 20-25mph.

= new normal/typical rain storm...

Mom, up here the Ramapo River is almost over it's banks and a stream locally is roaring full like I have not seen it in 20 years.If we get 1 to 2 inches of rain, there's going to be issues!

docstox12 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Doesn't tomorrows storm warrant a thread? It could be pretty impactful, not quite as much as the last one but I still think it bears discussion. And there's no jinx this one if anything if there is a thread it won't be as bad.

Looks like 1.5" of rain and 40 mph gusts, sustained near 20-25mph.

= new normal/typical rain storm...

Mom, up here the Ramapo River is almost over it's banks and a stream locally is roaring full like I have not seen it in 20 years.If we get 1 to 2 inches of rain, there's going to be issues!

I know its just crazy every storm this last year has brought so much rain and flooding to our area, it is quite sad. I am not informed about what the state is doing to try and solve the flooding problem. I know down by me our flood gates were put in in the 70's the surrounding towns at the time said the cost was too high for them. It saved us during Sandy. Now the surrounding towns are implementing flood prevention tools...

https://www.app.com/story/news/local/land-environment/2023/03/21/nj-bayshore-towns-get-millions-to-battle-rising-seas-extreme-storms/69933042007/

The Passaic River, flowing through commercial and residential neighborhoods in Essex County, northern NJ, is just getting to major flood stage.  
Rains over the next days will continue to flow down to the river from Passaic County. 
The graph may already be predicting the 22.1 ft high on Saturday as resulting from those downpours...or not...

Will be interesting to see what happens over the weekend and thereafter.

nutleyblizzard wrote:

amugs wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Doesn't tomorrows storm warrant a thread? It could be pretty impactful, not quite as much as the last one but I still think it bears discussion. And there's no jinx this one if anything if there is a thread it won't be as bad.

Go ahead JMAN start one - maybe you'll bring the goods this time??

EURO says what storm?

the euro has no cutter tomorrow and sat?! Thats odd.

Frank_Wx wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Doesn't tomorrows storm warrant a thread? It could be pretty impactful, not quite as much as the last one but I still think it bears discussion. And there's no jinx this one if anything if there is a thread it won't be as bad.

Looks like 1.5" of rain and 40 mph gusts, sustained near 20-25mph.

well the briefing from nws has upped rain to 2 inches plus for some arwas and winds along coast 50mph or so. Just not sure why we did last one it was a snooze. Plus i think this one will cause more flooding as rivers are really at peak or overflowing. But nvm. Ill leave it up to you.

docstox12 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Doesn't tomorrows storm warrant a thread? It could be pretty impactful, not quite as much as the last one but I still think it bears discussion. And there's no jinx this one if anything if there is a thread it won't be as bad.

Looks like 1.5" of rain and 40 mph gusts, sustained near 20-25mph.

= new normal/typical rain storm...

Mom, up here the Ramapo River is almost over it's banks and a stream locally is roaring full like I have not seen it in 20 years.If we get 1 to 2 inches of rain, there's going to be issues!

exactly if anything a observation thread. No point in tracking.

Jersey shore gets hammered again.
Flooding again and windy, with the saturated ground gusts to 30-35 may topple more trees.
Buddy in Brick has not been able to get out of his home for 2 days due to coastal flooding.

amugs wrote:Jersey shore gets hammered again.
Flooding again and windy, with the saturated ground gusts to 30-35 may topple more trees.
Buddy in Brick has not been able to get out of his home for 2 days due to coastal flooding.

i think a observation thread would be a good idea.

So since there is no discussion on Tue's snow I gather it's a very small event.  

NWS discussion

The consensus amongst guidance is that a low pressure system will form
to our south and stays to the south as it moves towards the northeast.
This keeps the forecast area entirely in the cold sector of the
system and in the right rear quad of the 250mb jet. That should
lead to broad synoptic lift and with moisture in place we may
see accumulating snow across the region. Based on the 06z
ensembles that went into the 13z NBM, the nearly the entire
forecast area has 50% chance or higher of exceeding 1" of snow
and given the area would be in the cold sector there would be no
immediate rainfall to melt the snow. Going a little bit higher
to the 4" threshold, probabilities of snowfall exceeding that
mark are around 20-30%. At this point limiting factors would be
the speed and location of the system rather than thermal
profiles. Will continue to monitor as the system gets closer as
there are bound to be numerous changes in track and intensity
given this storm is currently in the day 5 period.

We’re talking about it in the LR thread

28 degrees, clear, calm. NWS barking about likely snow Tuesday.Looks very cold finally after that passes.Maybe we can get a one week snowpack area wide WOOHOO!!!