Re: JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 06, 2024 1:15 am

Here's a comparison of the snow maps from tonight's 00z (left) and the earlier 12z run (right):

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 8 Screen67

Not as impressive as I was expecting given the things I mentioned above, but you can see that there is a colder signature there.

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 06, 2024 1:15 am

Good night, all!

by **oldtimer** Sat Jan 06, 2024 1:17 am

Thanks. rb. I’m about 5 mi North of your red line on LI. You se what I go through every year. Peace

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 06, 2024 4:05 am

06z RGEM

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 8 Img_1957

Nearly matches my red line from earlier, and gets as close to my and heehaw’s as possible without actually getting there lol

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 06, 2024 4:42 am

Improvements continued on the 06z GFS. Lower level circulations came further southeast again. Good signs!

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 06, 2024 4:46 am

rb924119 wrote:Improvements continued on the 06z GFS. Lower level circulations came further southeast again. Good signs!

6” to KNYC it looks like by my very tired eye lol

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 06, 2024 4:51 am

rb924119 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Improvements continued on the 06z GFS. Lower level circulations came further southeast again. Good signs!

6” to KNYC it looks like by my very tired eye lol

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 8 Img_1958

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 06, 2024 4:57 am

06z hi-res RGEM:

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 8 Img_1959

by **aiannone** Sat Jan 06, 2024 5:13 am

Upton disco

The models have clustered around a track, with the low progged to
pass about 100 mi or less S of LI tngt, then slip inside the
benchmark and pass E of Cape Cod on Sun. Based on this latest
information, snowfall amounts have been reduced slightly across the
board. The nly track could introduce some mixing inland, and the
speed of the sys may serve to be a limiting factor as well. At the
coasts, unless something drastic changes, ely flow should keep
the llvls mild and reduce the snowfall potential.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 06, 2024 6:42 am

Agreed with Upton

But I will say…it’s pretty freaking cold out there right now. I can see the front end of this system over perform a bit.

Ray thanks for all the overnight posts. Was helpful for playing catchup!

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 06, 2024 6:45 am

6z HRRR

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 8 Img_6818

by **Irish** Sat Jan 06, 2024 6:53 am

Frank_Wx wrote:6z HRRR

Lower totals all around, correct?

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 06, 2024 6:58 am

Looks like it, but curious if it’s sensing the cold temps overperforming last night and bringing some snow down through CNJ

by **heehaw453** Sat Jan 06, 2024 7:40 am

The 06Z NAM track is good IMO. I think snow line would be pushed further SE then what is depicted.

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 8 06znam10

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 8 85013

by **dsix85** Sat Jan 06, 2024 7:48 am

From my amateur eye, it looks like along the coast it does fill in nicely on the backend with a quick burst of snow tomorrow. I know it’s often difficult to predict back end snow due to how fast the system is moving, but I wouldn’t be surprised if even along the coast a quick inch or two falls tomorrow over a few hours.

by **dsix85** Sat Jan 06, 2024 7:48 am

From my amateur eye, it looks like along the coast it does fill in nicely on the backend with a quick burst of snow tomorrow. I know it’s often difficult to predict back end snow due to how fast the system is moving, but I wouldn’t be surprised if even along the coast a quick inch or two falls tomorrow over a few hours.

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 06, 2024 7:48 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Looks like it, but curious if it’s sensing the cold temps overperforming last night and bringing some snow down through CNJ

No problem, bud!

From what I have heard, the HRRR is usually over-warm in the BL. That said, I do t use it regularly, so idk when or if that alleged bias is legitimate or applicable haha

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 06, 2024 7:49 am

heehaw453 wrote:The 06Z NAM track is good IMO. I think snow line would be pushed further SE then what is depicted.

For what it’s worth, I agree lol

by **heehaw453** Sat Jan 06, 2024 7:57 am

This is interesting to me. Close off the 850 well inside the BM. Prepare for some surprises IMO.

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 8 18zgfs11

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 06, 2024 8:12 am

Latest SREFS close 850 off over D.C. (way early), which is great, but then take it along I-95 (not great). Again, usually these things are too amplified, but the early closing off is a good sign, and the increase in QPF is also good. Waiting on more maps.

by **heehaw453** Sat Jan 06, 2024 8:14 am

rb924119 wrote:Latest SREFS close 850 off over D.C. (way early), which is great, but then take it along I-95 (not great). Again, usually these things are too amplified, but the early closing off is a good sign, and the increase in QPF is also good. Waiting on more maps.

Agreed. We are looking at a dynamic storm. Rates will help cool the column. The RGEM is showing that too. I trust that model at this range.

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 06, 2024 8:42 am

There’s definitely a better CCB signature showing up, though it’s displaced further northeast because of the further north evolution verbatim.

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 06, 2024 8:43 am

NAM initialized……oh boy lol

by **aiannone** Sat Jan 06, 2024 8:48 am

rb924119 wrote:NAM initialized……oh boy lol

Good morning! I’m here

by **aiannone** Sat Jan 06, 2024 8:53 am

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 06, 2024 9:00 am

Just for the record, I know that I haven’t put out an official forecast map like Frank, but some personal friends asked me to look at the forecast for them, and I put out the following numbers based on my analysis and a couple hypotheses that I’m testing:

Allentown, PA: 7-11”
Northeastern PA (generally speaking north and west of Rt. 209): 11-17”

Now, we can generally extrapolate those boundaries for a rough idea for the rest of the area….

JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II - Page 8 Img_1915

Dark blue: 11” contour
Medium blue: 7” contour
Light blue: 3” contour

Again, this is only a rough approximation because I haven’t been able to do a full analysis. But at least it gives a very broad demonstration of what I’m thinking.

by **billg315** Sat Jan 06, 2024 9:00 am

Thick gray cloud cover here. 23* with a dewpoint of 19*. Car was covered with frost when I went to the gym this morning and still after I left (except the windows of course lol). It feels 100% like snow this morning. I expect that regardless of the warm air intrusion, at least in this part of NJ, it's going to take awhile to push this cold air out. I think I'm assured some decent front end snow and maybe some sleet before this thing can even think of going over to rain here. I think NW NJ will fall on the higher end of the projected ranges -- which even if it's only 6 or 7" for me, I'll take.

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