JAN 6th-7th Storm Part II

Just for the record, I know that I haven’t put out an official forecast map like Frank, but some personal friends asked me to look at the forecast for them, and I put out the following numbers based on my analysis and a couple hypotheses that I’m testing:

Allentown, PA: 7-11”
Northeastern PA (generally speaking north and west of Rt. 209): 11-17”

Now, we can generally extrapolate those boundaries for a rough idea for the rest of the area….



Dark blue: 11” contour
Medium blue: 7” contour
Light blue: 3” contour

Again, this is only a rough approximation because I haven’t been able to do a full analysis. But at least it gives a very broad demonstration of what I’m thinking.

Thick gray cloud cover here. 23* with a dewpoint of 19*. Car was covered with frost when I went to the gym this morning and still after I left (except the windows of course lol). It feels 100% like snow this morning. I expect that regardless of the warm air intrusion, at least in this part of NJ, it's going to take awhile to push this cold air out. I think I'm assured some decent front end snow and maybe some sleet before this thing can even think of going over to rain here. I think NW NJ will fall on the higher end of the projected ranges -- which even if it's only 6 or 7" for me, I'll take.

So far NAM is pretty similar to 00z with respect to the circulations. Only out to 20 though.

Through 24 definitely seems to be tracking with 00z.

It’s definitely wetter though. Wow. I might even be too low with my max numbers haha

General expectations and mood for this storm from my vantage point 45 miles geographically NNW of mid town, not highway miles that's 53 miles.

Anything less than 5 inches will be a huge disappointment, 8 inches about expected and will be satisfied, 10 inches or more a winner and over performer, at least in my eyes, I know RB has been predicting that for a week or more now.

22.6° after a morning low of 18.2°

Of course the mood will be very different on Tuesday when whatever falls washes away but all you can do is enjoy the moment, if it happens.

12z Nam. So close….

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:General expectations and mood for this storm from my vantage point 45 miles geographically NNW of mid town, not highway miles that's 53 miles.

Anything less than 5 inches will be a huge disappointment, 8 inches about expected and will be satisfied, 10 inches or more a winner and over performer, at least in my eyes, I know RB has been predicting that for a week or more now.

22.6° after a morning low of 18.2°

Of course the mood will be very different on Tuesday when whatever falls washes away but all you can do is enjoy the moment, if it happens.

We’re making progress, folks! The dam that was built to internalize winter enthusiasm is slowly cracking

aiannone wrote:

Wow, we are actually very similar. Cool! Thanks for posting!

Good trends since 18Z yesterday that modles have held or become better.
The last minute SE Jog as I said in east coast storms is at play.
Lastly we had the CAD signature that the models will start to pick up on and radar watching kicks in soon ~ 3 hours before storm starts.
The backend band is there folks and its real - looks to be ending ariund 2-3PM now after a lull

The GIF won't load - argghhhh!!

Maybe this has the surprise of the November 2017 storm??

rb924119 wrote:06z RGEM



Nearly matches my red line from earlier, and gets as close to my and heehaw’s as possible without actually getting there lol

your line is well below and this map keeps majority snow out of southern westchester even. the gfs and hrrr look good foe imby. we still lookinh at a start time around 2? i want to be back in yonkers b4 it snows.

rb924119 wrote:

aiannone wrote:

Wow, we are actually very similar. Cool! Thanks for posting!

nice in in 1 albeit by a smidge

Getting closer.

What this has going for it is the H anchored in Quebec. If anything it might just move more southerly or get just a little stronger 1032. That's why I think this has a chance for the I95. So yes mesos show a changover for many which would probably limit those even in EPA to a few inches. But I just cannot dismiss the setup on this one until I see it raining on my roof.

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:06z RGEM



Nearly matches my red line from earlier, and gets as close to my and heehaw’s as possible without actually getting there lol

your line is well below and this map keeps majority snow out of southern westchester even. the gfs and hrrr look good foe imby. we still lookinh at a start time around 2? i want to be back in yonkers b4 it snows.

It is off a bit in NJ and Long Island (roughly 20 miles), but it matched quite well by Philly. That’s why I said it’s as close as you can get to our ideas without it actually showing our ideas haha

See my approximated map for a little more clarification of my thoughts lol

heehaw453 wrote:What this has going for it is the H anchored in Quebec. If anything it might just move more southerly or get just a little stronger 1032. That's why I think this has a chance for the I95. So yes mesos show a changover for many which would probably limit those even in EPA to a few inches. But I just cannot dismiss the setup on this one until I see it raining on my roof.

I’m completely with you. Our ideas have gotten us this far after seemingly trending towards complete despair. A 20-30 mile difference with the track/transition zone is not nearly enough for me to abandon them now. We’re at 1-yard line. If we fumble now, well, at least we can salvage a field goal and say that we had a much better clue than the models did up until game time, and we only missed by a little with a fairly high skill score (especially considering the lead time we out our thoughts out there). Although it’s never good to leave points on the field, at least we put points on the board, and that’s gotta count for something haha

12z RGEM pretty much held serve from 00z:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:General expectations and mood for this storm from my vantage point 45 miles geographically NNW of mid town, not highway miles that's 53 miles.

Anything less than 5 inches will be a huge disappointment, 8 inches about expected and will be satisfied, 10 inches or more a winner and over performer, at least in my eyes, I know RB has been predicting that for a week or more now.

22.6° after a morning low of 18.2°

Of course the mood will be very different on Tuesday when whatever falls washes away but all you can do is enjoy the moment, if it happens.

I agree for here in a similar position (70 ish mile drive to manhatten) in Southern Dutchess. Only difference is about 95 percent of the time you get a couple inches more then me nased on topography and the snow hole i live in.

rb924119 wrote:12z RGEM pretty much held serve from 00z:

yep. What the RGEM is showing consistently is that there is going to be a boundary layer battle and if you are on the colder side expect a good helping of snow. That's the bottom line. Synoptically I think this gets pushed to the I95.

rb924119 wrote:Just for the record, I know that I haven’t put out an official forecast map like Frank, but some personal friends asked me to look at the forecast for them, and I put out the following numbers based on my analysis and a couple hypotheses that I’m testing:

Allentown, PA: 7-11”
Northeastern PA (generally speaking north and west of Rt. 209): 11-17”

Now, we can generally extrapolate those boundaries for a rough idea for the rest of the area….



Dark blue: 11” contour
Medium blue: 7” contour
Light blue: 3” contour

Again, this is only a rough approximation because I haven’t been able to do a full analysis. But at least it gives a very broad demonstration of what I’m thinking.

7 inches for Nutley NJ!?!? Well, I hope you’re right. Eitherway, thank you so much spending time watching the storm. I enjoy reading them.

rb924119 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:What this has going for it is the H anchored in Quebec. If anything it might just move more southerly or get just a little stronger 1032. That's why I think this has a chance for the I95. So yes mesos show a changover for many which would probably limit those even in EPA to a few inches. But I just cannot dismiss the setup on this one until I see it raining on my roof.

I’m completely with you. Our ideas have gotten us this far after seemingly trending towards complete despair. A 20-30 mile difference with the track/transition zone is not nearly enough for me to abandon them now. We’re at 1-yard line. If we fumble now, well, at least we can salvage a field goal and say that we had a much better clue than the models did up until game time, and we only missed by a little with a fairly high skill score (especially considering the lead time we out our thoughts out there). Although it’s never good to leave points on the field, at least we put points on the board, and that’s gotta count for something haha

As a football coach I can say, it's not always a good idea to leave the game up to the kickers.

JT33 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:What this has going for it is the H anchored in Quebec. If anything it might just move more southerly or get just a little stronger 1032. That's why I think this has a chance for the I95. So yes mesos show a changover for many which would probably limit those even in EPA to a few inches. But I just cannot dismiss the setup on this one until I see it raining on my roof.

I’m completely with you. Our ideas have gotten us this far after seemingly trending towards complete despair. A 20-30 mile difference with the track/transition zone is not nearly enough for me to abandon them now. We’re at 1-yard line. If we fumble now, well, at least we can salvage a field goal and say that we had a much better clue than the models did up until game time, and we only missed by a little with a fairly high skill score (especially considering the lead time we out our thoughts out there). Although it’s never good to leave points on the field, at least we put points on the board, and that’s gotta count for something haha

As a football coach I can say, it's not always a good idea to leave the game up to the kickers.

I agree with that in most instances, but if you miss a field goal when a kicker is that close, I think you need a new kicker hahaha

Meso analysis.  The 850s on the NAM3k are a bit off for 15Z. They have them a bit too warm from actual analysis. That may mean nothing, but it might show better CAD. We'll see.

toople wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Just for the record, I know that I haven’t put out an official forecast map like Frank, but some personal friends asked me to look at the forecast for them, and I put out the following numbers based on my analysis and a couple hypotheses that I’m testing:

Allentown, PA: 7-11”
Northeastern PA (generally speaking north and west of Rt. 209): 11-17”

Now, we can generally extrapolate those boundaries for a rough idea for the rest of the area….



Dark blue: 11” contour
Medium blue: 7” contour
Light blue: 3” contour

Again, this is only a rough approximation because I haven’t been able to do a full analysis. But at least it gives a very broad demonstration of what I’m thinking.

7 inches for Nutley NJ!?!? Well, I hope you’re right.  Eitherway, thank you so much spending time watching the storm. I enjoy reading them.

I hope I’m right too! Haha and no problem! I’m glad that you enjoy reading all the posts and analysis from everybody - we enjoy it too and if you learn a thing or two, that’s even better haha

12z GFS