JAN 9th-10th Flooding Threat

jmanley32 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:He's beenspot on the last number of storms and makes valid pts.

MONSTER WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT.. MULTI-STATE WIND DAMAGE THREAT
Here we are again! We are at another cross roads on whether to accept the idea of a 70-80mph wind gust potential from MD to ME!

Wind forecasting is a big challenge as a forecaster needs to factor in how much wind… pic.twitter.com/c5VRvXLsdW

— Mike Masco (@MikeMasco) January 8, 2024

yikes! Why do you think The NWS has not issued wind headlines for NE NJ, Westchester/NYC and coastal CT? Even inland this is going to be advisory criteria, I thing HWW for all coastal and the areas I just mentioned. if winds hit 70-80 MPH even 60-70 there is going to be massive outages.

And you don't think the Jersey coast?? LOL  we already have high winter watch posted..

Didn't mention them cuz as you said you have a HWW, I dunno what engraved invitation Upton is waiting for, literally HWW all way to south of NYC (Atlantic city I believe) then nothing then LI and RI/MA. NYC area, coastal CT have nothing, As i said guess they may be waiting to see if the inversion might allow for those insane numbers to verify.

Easy jman, they are late quite often on watches, warnings etc. No news is good news, if they haven't issued one yet, they aren't concerned yet. We are still 24 hours away from start time, there is plenty of time to put out additional watches/warnings. I would rather they take their time and get it right then go early and have to retract or adjust.

amugs wrote:Ida 2.0 peeps, prepare the ark and the generators is all I am saying. call it hype or what you want but models are noty backing down from winds nor flooding potentital.
Jersey shore will have possible moderate to major coastal flooding as well. Upton playing politicas again by utter silence or waiting?
SE winds will rake the area 40 -50 MPH inland and LI and Jersey Shore up to 65/70mph is not out of the question.
Unless we see models backing off this is a worry.
NNJ does not do well with SE winds nor does the shore.

The bolded/italicized point is extremely poignant, and I was just talking to a friend/employer of mine who owns a tree service about this. Our climatological wind direction is west-northwest, so trees are used to added stress from that direction and grow accordingly. However, this will have an anomalous southerly/easterly component, which, if the wind potential is realized, will result in additional damage that we wouldn’t otherwise see if it was west-northwest wind, because that is the weaker side of the tree’s fibers. This goes for everywhere north and west of I-95. A secondary factor is that we have snow load up here.

Dunnzoo wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:He's beenspot on the last number of storms and makes valid pts.

MONSTER WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT.. MULTI-STATE WIND DAMAGE THREAT
Here we are again! We are at another cross roads on whether to accept the idea of a 70-80mph wind gust potential from MD to ME!

Wind forecasting is a big challenge as a forecaster needs to factor in how much wind… pic.twitter.com/c5VRvXLsdW

— Mike Masco (@MikeMasco) January 8, 2024

yikes! Why do you think The NWS has not issued wind headlines for NE NJ, Westchester/NYC and coastal CT? Even inland this is going to be advisory criteria, I thing HWW for all coastal and the areas I just mentioned. if winds hit 70-80 MPH even 60-70 there is going to be massive outages.

And you don't think the Jersey coast?? LOL  we already have high winter watch posted..

Didn't mention them cuz as you said you have a HWW, I dunno what engraved invitation Upton is waiting for, literally HWW all way to south of NYC (Atlantic city I believe) then nothing then LI and RI/MA. NYC area, coastal CT have nothing, As i said guess they may be waiting to see if the inversion might allow for those insane numbers to verify.

Easy jman, they are late quite often on watches, warnings etc. No news is good news, if they haven't issued one yet, they aren't concerned yet. We are still 24 hours away from start time, there is plenty of time to put out additional watches/warnings. I would rather they take their time and get it right then go early and have to retract or adjust.

True but we are within 24 hrs now, I doubt this is backed off on by models. I just don't understand why they did not wait for all their coverage area's and do it all at once, at the very least there will be wind advisory level winds but IMO HWW, NYC coastal CT and southern westchester are basically the coast too. But we have no choice to wait and see. Its not like there will be a glass globe over NYC area and CT shore lol

rb924119 wrote:

amugs wrote:Ida 2.0 peeps, prepare the ark and the generators is all I am saying. call it hype or what you want but models are noty backing down from winds nor flooding potentital.
Jersey shore will have possible moderate to major coastal flooding as well. Upton playing politicas again by utter silence or waiting?
SE winds will rake the area 40 -50 MPH inland and LI and Jersey Shore up to 65/70mph is not out of the question.
Unless we see models backing off this is a worry.
NNJ does not do well with SE winds nor does the shore.

The bolded/italicized point is extremely poignant, and I was just talking to a friend/employer of mine who owns a tree service about this. Our climatological wind direction is west-northwest, so trees are used to added stress from that direction and grow accordingly. However, this will have an anomalous southerly/easterly component, which, if the wind potential is realized, will result in additional damage that we wouldn’t otherwise see if it was west-northwest wind, because that is the weaker side of the tree’s fibers. This goes for everywhere north and west of I-95. A secondary factor is that we have snow load up here.

Ida had no wind but rainfall wise could be.
Just N/W of NYC or the coast? I presume you mean both. That is a very interesting fact.

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

amugs wrote:Ida 2.0 peeps, prepare the ark and the generators is all I am saying. call it hype or what you want but models are noty backing down from winds nor flooding potentital.
Jersey shore will have possible moderate to major coastal flooding as well. Upton playing politicas again by utter silence or waiting?
SE winds will rake the area 40 -50 MPH inland and LI and Jersey Shore up to 65/70mph is not out of the question.
Unless we see models backing off this is a worry.
NNJ does not do well with SE winds nor does the shore.

The bolded/italicized point is extremely poignant, and I was just talking to a friend/employer of mine who owns a tree service about this. Our climatological wind direction is west-northwest, so trees are used to added stress from that direction and grow accordingly. However, this will have an anomalous southerly/easterly component, which, if the wind potential is realized, will result in additional damage that we wouldn’t otherwise see if it was west-northwest wind, because that is the weaker side of the tree’s fibers. This goes for everywhere north and west of I-95. A secondary factor is that we have snow load up here.

Ida had no wind but rainfall wise could be.
Just N/W of NYC or the coast? I presume you mean both. That is a very interesting fact.

Not so much the coast because they see strong anomalous southerly/easterly winds a lot more often than inland. However, as mugs pointed out, their concern comes from flooding with the anomalous easterly component.

I’m not saying that there wouldn’t be any tree damage, but relative to averages, the risk is somewhat moderated compared to inland.

rb924119 wrote:I’m not saying that there wouldn’t be any tree damage, but relative to averages, the risk is somewhat moderated compared to inland.

Interesting usually that is the opposite. I guess I am considered inland, coast I dunno. It is subjective at times.

This may come to fruition but better to be prepared than prepare for the failure!!

amugs wrote:This may come to fruition but better to be prepared than prepare for the failure!!

Thanks I have been trying to find a map that points out the areas that could have outages, I may not be working from home if power goes out ugg and parkways will likely be flooded so either way Wed morning is go be nightmare. Kinda crazy how the 3km NAM is being taken more seriously with it's wind map (yeah I get it may be overdone but talking 70-80 is even crazy. Other than TS we have not seen that with a cutter.

Why does the moderate area for flooding not include the immediate NYC area and western CT coast, theres no snow pack there it ends on the coast in CT. I think that will change IMO, flooding here is so easy with less rain. I get the areas with snow pack N/W.

I was just on tropical tidbits and looking at the meso models and I am not seeing the type of winds you guys are discussing with the exception of LI and maybe right along the coast, is there a different site I should use? Not doubting what everyone is saying just wondering if maybe tropical tidbits being a free site does not have the level of detail necessary to see everything

phil155 wrote:I was just on tropical tidbits and looking at the meso models and I am not seeing the type of winds you guys are discussing with the exception of LI and maybe right along the coast, is there a different site I should use? Not doubting what everyone is saying just wondering if maybe tropical tidbits being a free site does not have the level of detail necessary to see everything

TT does not have wind maps like WXBell or Pivotal Wx subscriptions my man.

amugs wrote:

phil155 wrote:I was just on tropical tidbits and looking at the meso models and I am not seeing the type of winds you guys are discussing with the exception of LI and maybe right along the coast, is there a different site I should use? Not doubting what everyone is saying just wondering if maybe tropical tidbits being a free site does not have the level of detail necessary to see everything

TT does not have wind maps like WXBell or Pivotal Wx subscriptions my man.

Cool, Thanks I will check them out

phil155 wrote:

amugs wrote:

phil155 wrote:I was just on tropical tidbits and looking at the meso models and I am not seeing the type of winds you guys are discussing with the exception of LI and maybe right along the coast, is there a different site I should use? Not doubting what everyone is saying just wondering if maybe tropical tidbits being a free site does not have the level of detail necessary to see everything

TT does not have wind maps like WXBell or Pivotal Wx subscriptions my man.

Cool, Thanks I will check them out

Sadly not free and fairly expensive especially wxbell.

jmanley32 wrote:

phil155 wrote:

amugs wrote:

phil155 wrote:I was just on tropical tidbits and looking at the meso models and I am not seeing the type of winds you guys are discussing with the exception of LI and maybe right along the coast, is there a different site I should use? Not doubting what everyone is saying just wondering if maybe tropical tidbits being a free site does not have the level of detail necessary to see everything

TT does not have wind maps like WXBell or Pivotal Wx subscriptions my man.

Cool, Thanks I will check them out

Sadly not free and fairly expensive especially wxbell.

Agreed

Upton take on storm, mentions possible expansion of HWW, I guess they are waiting to pull that trigger as dunzoo and mugs stated. Probably wanting to see if advisory or HWW criteria are likely for NYC area and coastal CT which to me appears likely. They also mention higher than 60mph gusts possible along coast so they might be taking into account 3km NAM. Am going to look at disco.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/20240108_MajorstormSystemJan9_10_AMupdate.pdf

rb924119 wrote:I just took a quick look at some forecast soundings for my local area here in NEPA, and it doesn’t look good. AT ALL. However, with the snowpack, I’m hoping that it can help induce a stout extremely low-level inversion to help prevent mixing just long enough to allow the core of the strongest winds to pass overhead. I have to look at this more closely later. But I’m hoping the same thing can occur for everybody else that just got snow.

Here’s the HRRR picking up on my ideas; note the extreme inversion just above the surface for a local sounding in my area. This will be our only saving grace, but again, I don’t think this will be present along the coastal plain:

rb924119 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I just took a quick look at some forecast soundings for my local area here in NEPA, and it doesn’t look good. AT ALL. However, with the snowpack, I’m hoping that it can help induce a stout extremely low-level inversion to help prevent mixing just long enough to allow the core of the strongest winds to pass overhead. I have to look at this more closely later. But I’m hoping the same thing can occur for everybody else that just got snow.

Here’s the HRRR picking up on my ideas; note the extreme inversion just above the surface for a local sounding in my area. This will be our only saving grace, but again, I don’t think this will be present along the coastal plain:

No idea how to read these would love to learn how, but the explanation is clear.

Wind Advisory issued jman.

Surprised they only upgraded NYC and Westchester to a advisory and coastal CT to a warning along with the rest of coast. We will see, if the numbers from the models are right those could change. Advisory level criteria not worried too much about any damage.

Dunnzoo wrote:Wind Advisory issued jman.

lol, i posted same exact time as you.

Toggle Members Info
Posted 4 minutes ago
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
318 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2024

NYZ074-075-078>081-176>179-091000-
/O.UPG.KOKX.HW.A.0001.240109T2300Z-240110T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.HW.W.0001.240109T2300Z-240110T1100Z/
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
318 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph
expected.

* WHERE...Richmond (Staten Island), Kings (Brooklyn), Northwest
Suffolk, Northeast Suffolk, Southwest Suffolk, Southeast
Suffolk, Northern Queens, Northern Nassau, Southern Queens and
Southern Nassau Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

As per discussion as to most damaging winds


The highest wind potential continues to be across southeastern
portions of NYC metro and Long Island is where there is highest
potential for wind gusts near 60 mph Tuesday night. Farther
north and west, gusts are more limited to near 50 mph. May need
to expand the higher winds into coastal CT.

Grselig wrote:As per discussion as to most damaging winds


The highest wind potential continues to be across southeastern
portions of NYC metro and Long Island is where there is highest
potential for wind gusts near 60 mph Tuesday night. Farther
north and west, gusts are more limited to near 50 mph. May need
to expand the higher winds into coastal CT.

They did extend warning into coastal CT and all of new london county which is well inland (That county goes inland about 30+ miles) except the coastal part so that's interesting.

Euro precip and wind gusts

Frank_Wx wrote:Euro precip and wind gusts

Why are these the storms that the Shore likes to jackpot on??

Frank_Wx wrote:Euro precip and wind gusts

I use weather.us all the time but always wondered if it is at all accurate, seeing you post it is it a resource I can use to post? The 3km NAM gust map on that site is nuts.