Re: Long Range Thread 29.0

[aiannone]

18z RGEM

[heehaw453]

Common thread on the models. Storm will get stuck under a block, stack vertically and possibly loop around. How far south do closed mid levels get prob determines where the best forcing sets up. Hard to nail that down but doesn't seem that block is going to allow this too far northward.

The block has been showing stronger and further south.

[phil155]

18z RGEM

Would be a very nice surprise but I am not holding my breath, that said it is nice to have something delivering to parts of the area at this point and maybe it is a good sign for the future that we are at least in the game(parts of the area)

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

18z RGEM

One of the odder snow/clown maps I've seen but who knows. The main thing is it looks like we all get a lot of precip and boy do we need it.

This does appear to look like an RB special. Living at 1,800 feet certainly has an advantage for snow lovers.

[amugs]

A very interesting - and potentially favorable pattern for cold/snow - setting up as we head towards the end of this month and December.

A strong -WPO (West Pacific ridge) and stretched polar vortex towards North America combine to offer up a supply of cold air. Suspect of how… pic.twitter.com/gI1FDXYnHc

— BAM Weather (BAMWX) (@bamwxcom) November 19, 2024

[amugs]

Early season #snow event likely for Northeast. Matches topography well since airmass is marginally cold for snow at the surface. As my professor always said..."2 ways to get to cold air, travel a few hundred miles north, or a few hundred feet up in elevation." #winter pic.twitter.com/2EOCwnMzLU

— Tom Niziol (@TomNiziol) November 19, 2024

[Frank_Wx]

The end of NOV into DEC is shaping up to be a cold one

The NAO stays negative while the AO transitions from a positive to negative state. If true, I can see our first accumulations into the coast occur in the first 10 days of December. Big if.

[heehaw453]

Yeah piggybacking on Frank's thoughts. It's D9 on this picture so take with a grain of salt but towards end of November there is a cross polar flow setting up on ensembles coupled with a bit of north Atlantic trough. Somewhat neutral AO but ridging in the NAO domain and the EPO/PNA allowing for colder air to seep down. You could get a sneaky wave riding a boundary and producing. In late November/early December you need something like this to establish cold air and compress southerly flow for snow.  If December can produce even little events down to the coast that's usually a very good sign.

Remember last December's (2023) pattern we had no cross polar flow to speak of.

[sroc4]

Yeah piggybacking on Frank's thoughts. It's D9 on this picture so take with a grain of salt but towards end of November there is a cross polar flow setting up on ensembles coupled with a bit of north Atlantic trough. Somewhat neutral AO but ridging in the NAO domain and the EPO/PNA allowing for colder air to seep down. You could get a sneaky wave riding a boundary and producing. In late November/early December you need something like this to establish cold air and compress southerly flow for snow.  If December can produce even little events down to the coast that's usually a very good sign.

Remember last December's (2023) pattern we had no cross polar flow to speak of.

Similar look on the EPS too. Love seeing the reds up into Alaska and the negatives south of the Aleutian Islands. Throw some positives into the Greenland area and like you said cross polar flow sets up. Grain of salt for now but def intriguing that we are seeing this so early this season.

[amugs]

Great to see the EPO and WPO both Negative - they will help drill the Arctic Cold into the CONUS and NE SHaeds of 13-14, 14-15

EPO


WPO



PNA in Neutral which works so it won't block the N EPO from drilling in the cold air



Phase 5 MJO is NOT A TORCH as some may think for winter. In a nuetral ENSO,NINA it is actually cold for us:

FROM JB on the Bell

[billg315]

Not to jump ahead while some areas (mostly higher elevations it seems) could be in for some snow THIS Friday, but liking what I'm seeing on the GFS and Euro for a little over a week from now. Let's see if we can get a nice "post-Thanksgiving, Welcome to December" storm going. Maybe the current system and the colder air coming in next week are just stage setters for a main event . . .

[dkodgis]

Certainly by next Fri, day after Thanksgiving, look at those Dec temperatures unpacking their bags

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