Re: Long Range Thread 29.0

[rb924119]

I think you'd need a closed off ULL 200 miles before hitting the coast and below the Mason Dixon line for most folks on the I84. The 12Z GGEM solution is how it gets done, but even that a faster close off IMO would be needed outside highest elevations.

If there's pasting from this probably > 1500' ASL. Catskills could see something and Poconos? at the highest spots. Just my thoughts w/out looking at this too deeply yet. The h5 looks like candy but it's just so darned early and there's minimal cold air. It's really dynamics and that's tough.

Let's see in a few days!

Not necessarily, heehaw. I have to go back through my archives, but I think there was a very similar event to this in November of 2015, and I ended up with almost eight inches. Purely anafrontal snow. I’ll revisit this tonight.

[rb924119]

I think you'd need a closed off ULL 200 miles before hitting the coast and below the Mason Dixon line for most folks on the I84. The 12Z GGEM solution is how it gets done, but even that a faster close off IMO would be needed outside highest elevations.

If there's pasting from this probably > 1500' ASL. Catskills could see something and Poconos? at the highest spots. Just my thoughts w/out looking at this too deeply yet. The h5 looks like candy but it's just so darned early and there's minimal cold air. It's really dynamics and that's tough.

Let's see in a few days!

Not necessarily, heehaw. I have to go back through my archives, but I think there was a very similar event to this in November of 2015, and I ended up with almost eight inches. Purely anafrontal snow. I’ll revisit this tonight.

Ok, so I was off by a year; November 19th-20th, 2016. First are images of my forecast, followed by observations, the reanalysis data, the current EPS, and then the observed average daily temperature from 2016, which equates to about 40°F (far from optimal for snow). Long story short; EXCEEDINGLY SIMILAR pattern and evolution.

[rb924119]

Archived radar for that event:

https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/imagearchive/

[dkodgis]

Ray, nice write-up. That year you lived in PA, right?

[rb924119]

Ray, nice write-up. That year you lived in PA, right?

Thanks! Haha and yeah, I was in Greentown, Pa - right where I am now as a matter of fact lol

[rb924119]

GEM/UKMET/Euro against the GFS. The majority have synoptic support; NEPA/NWNJ/Catskill smokeshow as it looks to me right now. I’ll definitely have a video tonight after work since tomorrow is a down day for me.

[heehaw453]

GEM/UKMET/Euro against the GFS. The majority have synoptic support; NEPA/NWNJ/Catskill smokeshow as it looks to me right now. I’ll definitely have a video tonight after work since tomorrow is a down day for me.

Look forward to your video! What stands out to me is the trough in North Atlantic compressing heights. The no in me says the western ridge isn't pumped enough to keep that ULL digging. With extremely marginal air that matters. I think if you're above 1500' few/several inches might be possible. I-84 probably sees flakes in lower terrain.

[dkodgis]

Too warm I should think

[rb924119]

Too warm I should think

Depends where you are, but I would not be surprised to see snow get darn close to NYC with this, even into NYC. Whether or not it sticks is another story. But I think anywhere along and north of about I-80 is going to be surprised with an early start to their snowfall season, with the areas mentioned above doing exceedingly well…….as in double-digit totals. Details to come once I’m out of work haha

[rb924119]

I have so much I want to say in this video aha I’m trying to make it as concise as possible, but it’s not easy.

[rb924119]

Upload in progress.

[rb924119]

Ok, folks, here's the video discussion of my thoughts on the 21st-22nd Potential Winter Storm:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Y7yoxPBJ71Hydzr984NWhWpc2I_pyH_F/view?usp=share_link

I tried keeping it as short as possible, but I had a lot to say and wanted to provide as many teachable moments as possible for everybody quietly following along. It came in at 35 minutes, so watch while you eat breakfast or sip your coffee haha I did the best I could to explain my thinking and why I like the Euro suite over the others, and why I also think that there is room for an even further correction south/east/colder. Unfortunately, I didn't have nearly enough time for a snowfall map, and won't, but I think that I did a fair job at highlighting where I think snow will fall, and how much. As usual, I'd love any feedback, and if anybody has any questions, then please feel free to ask! Looking forward to the further discussion and to seeing how it all turns out! Thanks for watching!

[SENJsnowman]

Thanks so much Ray. Excellent video, very easy to understand in lay terms, and well supported from many different perspectives. Looks like at the very least the entire region gets a much need soaking! As far as my back yard the Jersey Shore goes, we look to be just to the south and east of any potential action. No big surprise there, especially this early in the season. Still awesome to have something meaningful to track already and hopefully this portends a switch to a favorable pattern for the upcoming months!

[dkodgis]

Good video. So it really looks like it’s going to happen. NWS just mentioned the “s” word for up here. Our season’s start. It is nice to have something around the corner.

[frank 638]

Excellent video thank you ray !! I am very happy we are finally getting a storm we definitely need the rain

[rb924119]

Thanks, guys!!

Also, this just happened

[dkodgis]

My house is kissing that 14.2 total line. I mean let’s be precise about the measurement. 14 and .2. Sounds good to me.

[dkodgis]

Ray, I appreciate your flushing this out for us. Thank you

[rb924119]

This is CHUKING snow folks….and I think this is the best representation out of any guidance:

[dkodgis]

This storm could be a Scottie, then.

[rb924119]

This is CHUKING snow folks….and I think this is the best representation out of any guidance:

For the northwestern zones/higher terrain**

Rain:



Total liquid equivalent after snow:



As you can see, that’s well over an inch of liquid equivalent as snow in the northern and western zones of this forum, and I STRONGLY AGREE with this.

[rb924119]

The Euro AI continues to look the best to me, but other guidance seems to be struggling with how it’s handling the interaction of the two lobes of vorticity. This is not uncommon, and the overall setup is still there. I’m holding course for now.

[rb924119]

Side note: I can’t believe how quiet the forum is with the possibility in front of us. Oh well lol

[Frank_Wx]

Anyone have a 528 ddm H5 ULL in late November on their bingo card? And this is a MEAN. The OP is even more robust. Very very impressive. Looks like north of NYC - especially elevated areas - are in line for their first significant snowfall of the season.



That is the American representation of where the H5 ULL will track. Here is the European.



Notice how much further south it is. This means the difference between snow and rain for areas just N&W of NYC. Right now I think NYC metro is primarily rain but I guess some flurries on the backend can’t be ruled out.

The formation of this system is a direct result of anomalous high latitude blocking across Canada and the northern Atlantic. It would be nice to see a pattern like this establish itself during the heart of winter. Precursor maybe? We’ll see…

[rb924119]

Great post, Frank!

12z RGEM looks very Euro/Euro AI-like…..I expect a similar theme to its parent GEM global model coming out shortly. We’ll see.

[rb924119]

Great post, Frank!

12z RGEM looks very Euro/Euro AI-like…..I expect a similar theme to its parent GEM global model coming out shortly. We’ll see.

Suspicion confirmed. Euro also held serve and is a monster for extreme NW NJ, NEPA, Catskills, and southern tier of NY State. The verbatim snow map is not accurate for those first two regions mentioned above on the Euro. It’s not correctly handling the thermals at the lower levels.

[dkodgis]

The game’s aft

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