Re: Long Range Thread 29.0

[dkodgis]

I find it interesting. Thank you for sharing. That indicator will fall into place. We’ll see.

[frank 638]

[frank 638]

[sroc4]

Great Post Frankl

[Frank_Wx]

An interesting long range pattern on some guidance. Looks like a -NAO/-WPO that brings about troughiness toward the middle of October. If it comes true we’re looking at some cooler than normal weather - probably unsettled too.

Goes to show how blindly relying on models at a two to three week lead time will bring you pain, misery and depression (or do I feel that way because of the Yankees collapse?)

Anywho, it did not cool down. It warmed up. This is the longest stretch of sunshine and milder temperatures that I can remember during the Fall. High Pressure is forecasted to continue its dominance while all the cooler/unsettled weather stays confined to the western side of the country.

[frank 638]

[heehaw453]

It's no wonder eastern CA is having a very slow start to the snow season when you look at SST anomaly. Even places like Baffin Island, Nunuvat took till mid-October for snow cover on the extreme coast. Places like Labrador City ~3" seasonal snowfall total as of 11/2 should be ~18" by now. I will need to see snow before early/mid January to believe it for our coastal plane. We shall see for surprises.





snow cover as of 11/1


SST anomaly as of 11/1


I fear persistent SER (south east ridge) compliments of the anomalously warm GOM waters

500 mb height anomaly

[dkodgis]

I do like Mike’s plain language translation for communication. I too was sucked into a cooler stretch because I read more now about weather and I’ve become an ideologue. Not a pretty thing to be. Times is hard, times is hard. Global gollywallies going and and no snow goes with that.

I’m embarrassed to post due to my personal bias taking me for a ride. However all my leaves are down, collected and that’s a few weeks early, and how dry I am. The fall has been mild but I swear I feel a core of cold air that shouldn’t be there. Well…at least the snowblower is paid off

[jmanley32]

Hey all, so after giving a quick lookover of this LR thread looks like preliminary thoughts are not great for snow lovers. IMO if I had what I wanted it would be a few good storms in Jan (late)/Feb then getting ready for spring March/April. And I honestly would not mind a marginal cold, nothing brutal, I hate it sorry to say. If it is going to stay warm to only rain then keep the drought running.

[rb924119]

I might have to start barking about the 19th-23rd for the possibility of our first legitimate snow threat of the season.

[frank 638]

I hope this happens

[rb924119]

I might have to start barking about the 19th-23rd for the possibility of our first legitimate snow threat of the season.

Tonight’s GEM Op was VERY CLOSE to something mighty special, and I really don’t see much reason why it can’t continue to trend favorably. And that goes for all guidance. I think I might have to do a video discussion tomorrow night after work, because this getting exciting in a hurry.

[rb924119]

I hope this happens

#lockitin

[heehaw453]

I could see a severe nor'easter this season. The gulf stream will provide a lot energy as it's very warm, but we would need the cold air to lock in with favorable EPO & NAM state. That's the part I think waits until latter January. But even a several week stretch could really produce. Full disclosure I am not looking at anything but water temps for now and existing snow coverage. The PAC is always a BIG wild card. But when I see Marquette MI have no snow cover in mid November that screams patience to me.

[rb924119]

I don’t fundamentally disagree, heehaw. But I will say that your snow cover woes are going to change next week. Between lake-effect and synoptics, there’s going to be a decent blanket of white put down.

Side note, video coming out tonight - I’m amped up for the 19th-23rd. Hint: this looks like it could be a pretty classic OVER-PERFORMING ANAFRONTAL event if things shake out how I think they will.

[billg315]

Two things I would say about the next 10-14 day period:
1.) After slightly warmer temps this weekend, there don't appear to be any major "warm-ups" expected during that time frame -- at least nothing like the extreme warmups we saw transiently in October and early Nov. period. Not that temps will be well below normal either, but normal to slightly below normal seems more in order, especially the last week of November.
2.) The pattern does seem to want to get a little more active in that last week of November (Thanksgiving week) in conjunction with some of those cooler/colder temps.
Not making any bold predictions, just saying our prospects of more seasonably appropriate temps and maybe some more precipitation as well may look brighter toward the end of this month.

[amugs]

Stretched PV would be a good sign for winter to kick in

[amugs]

WOOF!!

[dkodgis]

Ray, do I dare hope for explosive cyclogenesis with what you mention as possibly on the horizon!?

[rb924119]

Ray, do I dare hope for explosive cyclogenesis with what you mention as possibly on the horizon!?

Not for next week - what happens next week will be driven by frontal dynamics with a relatively weak wave of low pressure. However, if we see repeats during the Winter of the same type of pattern that we are going to see next week, then yes, that does become a notably higher probability that we capitalize at some point……unless we are incredibly unlucky. Which, that has happened before, but with such a phenomenal pattern, it becomes harder to miss than it does to capitalize, even marginally.

[heehaw453]

Ray, do I dare hope for explosive cyclogenesis with what you mention as possibly on the horizon!?

Not for next week - what happens next week will be driven by frontal dynamics with a relatively weak wave of low pressure. However, if we see repeats during the Winter of the same type of pattern that we are going to see next week, then yes, that does become a notably higher probability that we capitalize at some point……unless we are incredibly unlucky. Which, that has happened before, but with such a phenomenal pattern, it becomes harder to miss than it does to capitalize, even marginally.

Agree fully. This is money pattern even mid/late December for a shot at goodness. I harp every season on getting on the board in December and what that means for the rest of the winter.

[rb924119]

HOLY HANNAH 12z GEM!! Would be a blizzard for EPA, and northern/western NY State.

[rb924119]

HOLY HANNAH 12z GEM!! Would be a blizzard for EPA, and northern/western NY State.

12z Euro joined this idea, though in a different way. It sticks to the weak wave/anafront idea as opposed to the GEM which bombs a cyclone as it passes the Delmarva. Either way, I’m growing very confident that our members in the northern and western zones are going to see their first measurable snowfall next week.

[frank 638]

[[/url]

[heehaw453]

I think you'd need a closed off ULL 200 miles before hitting the coast and below the Mason Dixon line for most folks on the I84. The 12Z GGEM solution is how it gets done, but even that a faster close off IMO would be needed outside highest elevations.

If there's pasting from this probably > 1500' ASL. Catskills could see something and Poconos? at the highest spots. Just my thoughts w/out looking at this too deeply yet. The h5 looks like candy but it's just so darned early and there's minimal cold air. It's really dynamics and that's tough.

Let's see in a few days!

[rb924119]

I think you'd need a closed off ULL 200 miles before hitting the coast and below the Mason Dixon line for most folks on the I84. The 12Z GGEM solution is how it gets done, but even that a faster close off IMO would be needed outside highest elevations.

If there's pasting from this probably > 1500' ASL. Catskills could see something and Poconos? at the highest spots. Just my thoughts w/out looking at this too deeply yet. The h5 looks like candy but it's just so darned early and there's minimal cold air. It's really dynamics and that's tough.

Let's see in a few days!

Not necessarily, heehaw. I have to go back through my archives, but I think there was a very similar event to this in November of 2015, and I ended up with almost eight inches. Purely anafrontal snow. I’ll revisit this tonight.

[rb924119]

I think you'd need a closed off ULL 200 miles before hitting the coast and below the Mason Dixon line for most folks on the I84. The 12Z GGEM solution is how it gets done, but even that a faster close off IMO would be needed outside highest elevations.

If there's pasting from this probably > 1500' ASL. Catskills could see something and Poconos? at the highest spots. Just my thoughts w/out looking at this too deeply yet. The h5 looks like candy but it's just so darned early and there's minimal cold air. It's really dynamics and that's tough.

Let's see in a few days!

Not necessarily, heehaw. I have to go back through my archives, but I think there was a very similar event to this in November of 2015, and I ended up with almost eight inches. Purely anafrontal snow. I’ll revisit this tonight.

Ok, so I was off by a year; November 19th-20th, 2016. First are images of my forecast, followed by observations, the reanalysis data, the current EPS, and then the observed average daily temperature from 2016, which equates to about 40°F (far from optimal for snow). Long story short; EXCEEDINGLY SIMILAR pattern and evolution.

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