Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

[Frank_Wx]

This particular model is looking at projected SST's in the Nov-Dec-Jan time frame. Two key regions to look at:

1. The ENSO region (the Equatorial Pacific). Notice the darkest shade of red extends into the central Pacific, it's not confined to the coast of Central America. This means the El Nino event is basin-wde.

2. The EPO region, in the Northern Pacific, still shows above normal temps that extend from the PDO region. This will help keep ridging into Alaska and western Canada, which in turn keeps our AO negative. Very important!!!!!

I hope this is right.

[docstox12]

#2 is the key for our snow if that Equatorial red comes across.Only 2 1/2 months until Nov 1!

[amugs]

Start the CHANT NOW SNOW WEENIES:

EPO! EPO! EPO! EPO! coax this biag into staying warm if not we have issues with winter moving forward, I am not all that sold on the NAO elkping - it as been Casper the last few years but the AO might just very well be there since there is study on the correlation between the July AO which was negative and the winter DJF AO which should mirror the July AO reading.

[chinkaps]

Hello guys,

We are planning to have an outdoor party on Aug 29th and wanted to see if the weather was going to be clear for that Sat? It looks like the temps are going back to mid 80's for the next week which should be normal for this time of the year.

Please let me know?

Thanks,

KT

[Frank_Wx]

Hello guys,

We are planning to have an outdoor party on Aug 29th and wanted to see if the weather was going to be clear for that Sat? It looks like the temps are going back to mid 80's for the next week which should be normal for this time of the year.

Please let me know?

Thanks,

KT

Hi KT,

The forecast next weekend looks pleasant at this time. Sunshine with High Pressure in control. The mean ridge will be to our west so we will not endure terribly hot temps. Looks to be a low to mid 80's type of deal. Please ask again this weekend and I'll have a clearer idea.

[chinkaps]

Thanks Frank! I appreciate it.

KT

[Snow88]

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/08/18/winter_weather_preview_thanks_to_el_nino_we_know_what_s_coming.html

According to this site

The seasonal weather outlooks for this fall and winter will be some of the most accurate ever issued.

There’s good and bad news for Boston and other East Coasters. It almost certainly won’t be as cold as last year in the Northeast, but fierce Nor’easters could be commonplace, bringing a return of heavy snowstorms.

[Frank_Wx]

Yes, winter outlooks are going to look pretty similar this season. BUT it is also key to highlight other important factors, such as the EPO, QBO, and AMO

[Frank_Wx]

Here is a neat graphic from Al Marinaro. Based on current NPAC and El Nino status, these are the closest analogs that match:

[amugs]

Beautiful chart there Frank!

1957/58 winter saw some big nor'easters - DOC, CP can you vouch for this?? Do you recall?

From reading David Ludlum books online (Janet he was guest speaker for us at NJWO)
3 Noteworthy Coastal Storms that ripped the east coast from Virginia to Maine with 8" to 30" (NNj and LHV average 12-18") Snowy and EPA folks - out in Scranton area they saw 20", 15" and 30" - know that would be icing on the cake from the past two winters!

IF we get the EPO to stay negative then the STJ will be off the charts and we will have a great shot at a grat winter. Not as many storms but more powerful coastals unlike the last two winters where we scratched and clawed with 3" here, 2" there, 7" then 5" etc.

[amugs]

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/08/18/winter_weather_preview_thanks_to_el_nino_we_know_what_s_coming.html

Great Article by this guys/guys - quick synopsis below from the article - woop woop!!

"There’s good and bad news for Boston and other East Coasters. It almost certainly won’t be as cold as last year in the Northeast, but fierce Nor’easters could be commonplace, bringing a return of heavy snowstorms.

Back in 2012, in my New York City weather column in the Wall Street Journal, I did a quick analysis that showed El Niño winters brought an additional 10 inches of snowfall to the Big Apple, all else being equal. To get especially strong winter storms in the Northeast, the large-scale El Niño signal (which increases the amount of wintertime moisture available along the East Coast) needs to coincide with a weak and wavy jet stream. That’s a recipe for heavy snow, even if temperatures aren’t as brutally cold as the last two winters. Watch for big dips in the North Atlantic Oscillation (a rough approximation for jet stream strength) this winter for signs a big storm could be on the way."

[skinsfan1177]

Thought I share this video on current el Nino .

https://youtu.be/0VNXwsr-s3s

[essexcountypete]

Hello guys,

We are planning to have an outdoor party on Aug 29th and wanted to see if the weather was going to be clear for that Sat? It looks like the temps are going back to mid 80's for the next week which should be normal for this time of the year.

Please let me know?

Thanks,

KT

Hi KT,

The forecast next weekend looks pleasant at this time. Sunshine with High Pressure in control. The mean ridge will be to our west so we will not endure terribly hot temps. Looks to be a low to mid 80's type of deal. Please ask again this weekend and I'll have a clearer idea.

Thanks for asking the question KT and thanks for answering Frank. I'm running a camping trip that weekend with 25+ people and it's good to hear fair weather is expected.

[docstox12]

Beautiful chart there Frank!

1957/58 winter saw some big nor'easters - DOC, CP can you vouch for this?? Do you recall?

From reading David Ludlum books online (Janet he was guest speaker for us at NJWO)
3 Noteworthy Coastal Storms that ripped the east coast from Virginia to Maine with 8" to 30" (NNj and LHV average 12-18") Snowy and EPA folks -  out in Scranton area they saw 20", 15" and 30" - know that would be icing on the cake from the past two winters!

IF we get the EPO to stay negative then the STJ will be off the charts and we will have a great shot at a grat winter. Not as many storms but more powerful coastals unlike the last two winters where we scratched and clawed with 3" here, 2" there, 7" then 5" etc.

I have some reccolection of that winter and there were a few good snowstorms.It set up the 1960-1961 killer winter around here.Good to see that analog comparison to 57-58.

Actually I think it's better to have snowstorms with temps around 30 as you don't get that cold air suppresion like that Snowmageddon year that hit Washington and Philly.That's perfect for me in the HV while City and S and E sweat out the mixes.

Some early Maples turning color up here, acorns droppind and days getting shorter.A little more than a month until Fall.Here we go!!!!!

[Frank_Wx]

El Nino = prominent

[nutleyblizzard]

El Nino = prominent

Looks like the warm pools of water in the N Pac and Baja are holding there own which is a good thing.

[amugs]

For the love of God - I hope the NAO does this come DJF!! as it has done from Mid June to Mid August

[amugs]

Look at El Nino - one of the strongest ever - not SUPE as we were forewarned and hyped but strong from this chart



My call for this winter based upon this information from the PAC -EPO (WC), Active STJ (given)and a -AO we go Jan to March again Dec is the transition again. When was the last time we had a +2 C El Nino and a -EPO??

Looky see



Look at the bathtub - hold on baby for few more months!

[docstox12]

That first chart on top bodes very ill.All of those winters were bad except the 1982-1983 when we had the incredible February 1983 snowstorm.Hope other factors will come to play to moderate this.

[amugs]

Look at what Bloomberg reports on the incoming winter season:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-31/warm-arctic-brews-severe-winters-from-u-s-to-asia-study-says

[amugs]

That first chart on top bodes very ill.All of those winters were bad except the 1982-1983 when we had the incredible February 1983 snowstorm.Hope other factors will come to play to moderate this.

Yes it does when drawing comparisons BUT if we get the NPAC to stay toasty then I feel we are going to be in for a nice ride from Jan through March. Only time will tell!

[snow247]

Farmers Almanac says we will have another snowy Thanksgiving

[amugs]

Weekly SSTAs based on the August 23-29

Nino 1+2... 2.0C (+0.3C from last week)
Nino 3...... 2.3C (+0.1C from last week)
Nino 3.4.... 2.2C (+0.1C from last week)
Nino 4...... 1.1C (unchanged from last week)

[amugs]

GFS showing a good cool down almost major for the second half of Sept with re-curving the typhoons in the PAC - Euro and CMC say no and we bake. Time will tell now that we are into what is Meteorological fall

[nutleyblizzard]

Weekly SSTAs based on the August 23-29

Nino 1+2... 2.0C (+0.3C from last week)
Nino 3...... 2.3C (+0.1C from last week)
Nino 3.4.... 2.2C (+0.1C from last week)
Nino 4...... 1.1C (unchanged from last week)

That's quite impressive mugs. I would not be surprised with all the ongoing kelvin wave action we end up in super status or 3.0C in areas 3 and 3.4. We'll see. What's really starting to peak my interest, is the record warmth in the EPO region. The SSTs in that area are the highest ever for this time of year. If this were to hold up in the next two months and we end up with a negative EPO which is becoming increasingly likely, we would looking at a HIGHLY UNIQUE WINTER PATTERN. Not trying to get too excited just yet, but we are getting closer to prime time folks!

[dkodgis]

http://nypost.com/2015/09/01/this-years-el-nino-weather-pattern-could-be-strongest-on-record/

the article says strong El Nino but with Arctic warming, all bets are off; no one knows what will happen because things could get very hairy, stay status quo, or be a bust. In other words, all bets are hedged. So what might be the bottom line: not so cold winter, and dryer winter but when it does snow, Katie bar the door?

[dkodgis]

Doc-I just looked at the Bloomberg article and I see cold, stormy NE winters. What is Joe Bastardi saying these days?

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