Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

[dkodgis]

http://nypost.com/2015/09/01/this-years-el-nino-weather-pattern-could-be-strongest-on-record/

the article says strong El Nino but with Arctic warming, all bets are off; no one knows what will happen because things could get very hairy, stay status quo, or be a bust. In other words, all bets are hedged. So what might be the bottom line: not so cold winter, and dryer winter but when it does snow, Katie bar the door?

[dkodgis]

Doc-I just looked at the Bloomberg article and I see cold, stormy NE winters. What is Joe Bastardi saying these days?

[skinsfan1177]

Their are lots to consider the epo,ao, qbo, ect... These next couple months we need to watch the signals. Its been talked about that it will not not be extremely cold which may be a good thing to much cold suppressed storms can't wait for winter.

[nutleyblizzard]

Their are lots to consider the epo,ao, qbo, ect... These next couple months we need to watch the signals. Its been talked about that it will not not be extremely cold which may be a good thing to much cold suppressed storms can't wait for winter.

Good point. We all wan't a -EPO, but too strong of one and the Mid-Atlantic states cashes in with the big snows and we could be left high and dry. Also don't forget the potential -NAO this winter. As long as the Pacific is on our side, it won't be a necessity to have Atlantic blocking but it would still be nice to have regardless.

[amugs]

Their are lots to consider the epo,ao, qbo, ect... These next couple months we need to watch the signals. Its been talked about that it will not not be extremely cold which may be a good thing to much cold suppressed storms can't wait for winter.

Good point. We all wan't a -EPO, but too strong of one and the Mid-Atlantic states cashes in with the big snows and we could be left high and dry. Also don't forget the potential -NAO this winter. As long as the Pacific is on our side, it won't be a necessity to have Atlantic blocking but it would still be nice to have regardless.

Nuts,

Good point but the the -epo is not the only aspect to squash storms so to speak but the ridge or PNA in the west and where it sets up - the -EPO will bring the cold air and plenty of it but we do not need a flat or negative PNA - ridging in the west drives the storms straight across the country and we are left with squat. I believe and it is true teh during a Nino that PNA is positive, how strongly do not know but I am suspecting this will be the case for this winter. The other aspect that could leave us high and dry and we all saw this in 2013 March, well from Feb 15 on and that is how I was ousted as the KSW on here, heck I was livin' large up until that point and that is the AO which went forced the HP to settle in and be too strong for these storms to cut underneath or push up against. And yes there is the NAO which can squash storms as well.

Listen the waters off the NA PAC are hot tub worthy - we need it to stay a +1 to +2* C for us to overcome what could be a moderate STJ from Nino. Anything is possible and I am still favoring a Jan to March winter, heck JB is calling for wall to wall snow and very cold for Middle Atlantic into the NE but when he is not? His rational is based upon many aspects but the NPAC being abnormally warm for a Nino state to be one pertinent aspect.
We shall see.

Chack out this link - I hope it comes to fruition

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015090100&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=100

[nutleyblizzard]

With El Nino's there is normally ridging out west, so I'm not worried about the PNA. All our other tellies are unknown at this time, but I'm fairly confident at this point we will have a -EPO on our hands this winter and plenty of sleepless nights will ensue.

[Frank_Wx]

This is going to be one of my more interesting winter outlooks....

[HectorO]

Their are lots to consider the epo,ao, qbo, ect... These next couple months we need to watch the signals. Its been talked about that it will not not be extremely cold which may be a good thing to much cold suppressed storms can't wait for winter.

Weird, I've read a few articles saying it was going to be a cold and snowy one. Maybe not as frigid as last year but still cold. September 1st is way too early anyways.

[nutleyblizzard]

This is going to be one of my more interesting winter outlooks....

Tell me about it! Frank that's an understatement if everything falls into place.

[amugs]

This is going to be one of my more interesting winter outlooks....

Tell me about it! Frank that's an understatement if everything falls into place.

ABSOLUTELY!!!

[amugs]

Tweet from Eric Blake about the potent warm deep layers of the equity rial pac. If this data is right them momma Mia!!https://mobile.twitter.com/ericblake12/status/638755712919732224

[sroc4]

Another month and we get to start following the siberian snow cover anomalies. The +PDO has been a primary driver leading to the -EPO Alaskan ridge for the last two winters leading to above avg snowfall for the coastal plain.  Frank maybe you have already, but I would be interested in looking at some of the drivers leading up to above avg siberian snow and see if any fall in with El Nino yrs etc and exactly how.   Interesting as well as we head into the deeper winter months will be the warm SST anomalies off the NE Coast similar to last year.  We had some real nice high ratio snows esp in March due in part to this fact.  Baroclinically driven convection led to some pleasant surprises...IMBY esp.    

[amugs]

Another month and we get to start following the siberian snow cover anomalies. The +PDO has been a primary driver leading to the -EPO Alaskan ridge for the last two winters leading to above avg snowfall for the coastal plain.  Frank maybe you have already, but I would be interested in looking at some of the drivers leading up to above avg siberian snow and see if any fall in with El Nino yrs etc and exactly how.   Interesting as well as we head into the deeper winter months will be the warm SST anomalies off the NE Coast similar to last year.  We had some real nice high ratio snows esp in March due in part to this fact.  Baroclinically driven convection led to some pleasant surprises...IMBY esp.      

Sroc,

Well said and so very interesting with many players on the field. One thing is that the pac is a bathtub all up and down the and across the nono basin. We have sometime to go of course and will not know what is what until I'd to late October as SST's, ice coverage starts to set things up for these indicators. Heck, that epo drive our past two winters with s9me nice surprise snows so can it make it a three peat? US Italians belive things happen in three's right?

[amugs]

Look at how broad based and more western base this nino is.

[amugs]

Check out this post from a Midwest weather man

This El Nino is likely close to a peak. The subsurface and OLR trends are waning a bit vs where they were earlier in the year. If I had to venture a guess, I'd say that the El Nino peaks in October-Nov, then weakens a bit for the Winter.

Research shows that it perhaps isn't the strength of the El Nino but it's tendency to strengthen vs cool that correlates best with Winter weather conditions. This makes sense, I think, because factors that contribute too SSTA cooling/warming are the main conductors of the weather patterns (OLR, MJO, etc...). If I'm right and the El Nino peaks early, we have a good shot at another awesome Winter in the east, 02-03 esq.

[docstox12]

This is going to be one of my more interesting winter outlooks....

Got a lot of variables to work with here,Frank, it will be a blast to see how it all looks come November.

Until then....Happy Labor Day!!!

[rb924119]

Something to keep in mind as we head forward: Depending on the eventual strength of El Nino and where it is (east-based/central/west-based) could have a very large impact on how the MJO acts. The ENSO signal is historically significantly weaker here in the Eastern US than that of the MJO phases, but with ENSO being as strong as it is, it could actually work to "phase-block" the MJO. Preferably, we'd want the warmest waters east of the Dateline, as that would help to suppress phases 2-6 of the MJO. In fact, take a look:


MJO Phase-Space


SST Anomalies (data only available for July at the moment, but you can match it up very well):



You can CLEARLY see how with the warmest SST anomalies east of the Dateline, the MJO during the month of July (red line on the phase-space) remained in Phases 7-1. Even as the anomalies have shifted west, they are still primarily east of the Dateline, which as you can again see, has allowed the MJO to remain "phase locked" through all of August. As we head into the winter months, the effect of the MJO on our sensible will grow tremendously, so this will be yet another key thing to consider this winter season. If you're interested as to how exactly ENSO can work to phase lock the MJO, let me know, and I can go more in depth.

[Frank_Wx]

What exactly is your definition of phase lock?

[rb924119]

What exactly is your definition of phase lock?

To prevent it from progressing through the rest of the phases in an active state. For example, the MJO was only active in the last quadrant during July and August; it was prevented from propagating around the globe like it normally does.

[jimv45]

RB glad to see you back you know what your talking about good post.

[rb924119]

Thanks Jim!! Hopefully I can contribute more than I have been....

[mako460]

Just heard it on WFAN, a commercial, Lowe's is having a Labor Day sale on Toro Snow blowers. Kind of sounds like back to school sales in July but it did get my attention and i think my heart might have skipped a beat!

[amugs]

Rb,

Welcome back and great piece of educational information, never heard of that before. Learn something new each day! Thanks for sharing and look forward to yuor posts here as we draw near the est and most magical season of all = WINTER!!


Post I made last night from the Midwest weather man calls himself Strom Chaser Chuck

[amugs]

Sept 3rd MEI Update...

"Compared to last month, the updated (July-August) MEI has increased significantly by 0.39 standard deviations to +2.37, or the 2nd highest ranking, surpassed only in 1997 at this time of year. This new peak value of the current event ranks third highest overall at any time of year since 1950, with 1982-83 and 1997-98 remaining in a 'Super El Niño' club of their own (for now), with peak values around +3 standard deviations.

Looking at the nearest 6 rankings (+1/-5) in this season, and excluding cases with declining July-August values compared to earlier in the year gives us the same five 'analogues' as last month: 1965, 1972, 1982, 1987, and 1997. All five maintained strong El Niño status through at least December of their respective calendar years. However, three of them ('65, '72, and '97) peaked already in July-August (the current season), followed by minor declines by the end of the year. Only 1982 showed continued growth right into the following year, while 1987 had already peaked back in May of that year.

El Niño conditions are guaranteed to persist into the upcoming boreal winter season, most likely at strong levels for much of that period. Whether it will reach the elusive 'Super El Niño' level remains to be seen. In addition, typical El Niño impacts will be supported by positive PDO conditions that have endured since January 2014, reaching record levels from December 2014 through February 2015. Daily updates of the ENSO status can be found at the TAO/TRITON website, showing a renewed westerly wind surge near the dateline as of the beginning of September.

Aug NOAA PDO was +1.01. That's the 18th highest PDO value for Aug since 1854. Momma Mia.

This poop is getting really interesting as we move forward!

[amugs]

[Frank_Wx]

Mugs, those are pretty cool graphics. Do you have a link?

Meteorological summer is over and we're officially in meteorological fall. Check out the progression of Pacific SST anomalies this summer. The -EPO remained and El Nino kept getting stronger.

[Frank_Wx]

But check out what's happening lately. Colder than normal SSTs are preciding over the northern Pac. Is this a sign we could be losing our negative EPO? Historically, there are not many analogs that consist of a strong El Nino and a -EPO during the winter. Usually the El Nino robs the northern Pac of all the warm water. These next 3-5 weeks will be crucial in determining how these signals come together.

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