Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

[Frank_Wx]

Mugs, those are pretty cool graphics. Do you have a link?

Meteorological summer is over and we're officially in meteorological fall. Check out the progression of Pacific SST anomalies this summer. The -EPO remained and El Nino kept getting stronger.

[Frank_Wx]

But check out what's happening lately. Colder than normal SSTs are preciding over the northern Pac. Is this a sign we could be losing our negative EPO? Historically, there are not many analogs that consist of a strong El Nino and a -EPO during the winter. Usually the El Nino robs the northern Pac of all the warm water. These next 3-5 weeks will be crucial in determining how these signals come together.

[rb924119]

Anybody taking notice of the pattern break/hiatus (expected duration is unknown at this point for lack of time to look) being advertised in the Day-10 timeframe???? Making me feel all warm and fuzzy inside

[sroc4]

Hey rb it is great to see you back posting. You had mentioned back a few posts about the phase lock to the MJO. I 100% understand the general concept but you asked if anyone would like an in depth discussion about it to let you know. Well...I certainly would like it if you have the time to discuss the last few months and the MJO. Me def, and Im pretty sure many others on here, would never turn down an in depth read on anything you have to say. I would move it to the educational section of the site as well so it can be referenced for future discussions if needed. So IF you have the time go for it.

That being said this was a discussion Larry Cosgrove had in his newsletter yesterday about the LR. Good read.

"Middle And Late September Is A Very Critical Forecast Period For El Nino Watchers; Presence Of Blocking Signals, Tropical System Impacts Favor Cooler, Stormier Conditions Across Eastern Two-Thirds Of North America

For those keeping an eye on what may transpire across the U.S. in late autumn and winter, the next three to four weeks will offer valuable clues. While it seems like every one and his uncle has been talking about the "Super El Nino" (I will not dignify the allusion to a Japanese monster movie), the truth of the matter is that there are many other unique atmospheric and oceanographic features that are, and will be, playing a role in North American weather. The persistent and vigorous Asian monsoonal fetch, typhoon injection possibilities, rapid warming of much of the Atlantic Basin, a cold pool over the Grand Banks and Flemish cap, and the tendency for -AO signals since June all must be examined. And of course the vast +PDO signature that, from the looks of things, will keep its support of -EPO and +PNA blocking over the western third of the continent in place for the foreseeable future.

It is this last piece of the puzzle that gnaws at my thinking for how October and November will turn out. Once the current trough across the West lifts out, it is evident on all of the numerical models that a new and very durable ridge axis is going to set up along the length of the Pacific shoreline. Special emphasis in numerical projections is placed on California in the medium range, which return to its almost constant issue with dryness and above normal temperatures. The only real dissent if the GGEM model suite, which presents a positive tilt trough over western North America in the longer term.

Why all of this discussion about how important the 11 - 15 day forecast is? Simply because if we are going to have a "typical El Nino" (and yes, that phrase is a misnomer in many ways), the pattern will show up very soon. Signs of a split flow, with California getting cool rains, should start to develop by the third week of September, and the "classic look" (or smile) would normally be entrenched by October 22. Note that the CanSIPS and CFS models seem skewed toward warmth along the West and East Coasts, with a wide area of cool weather in the middle of the continent. The American climatic model has what appears to be a broad -EPO/-AO blocking signature, and analog-derived forecasts (shown here for September 16 - 20) have strong pulsations of cooler air east of the Rocky Mountains.

In a nutshell, I am forecasting a continuation of the late August/early September pattern through much of next month. Severe weather, cases for isolated heavy rain and even the possibility for a tropical cyclone moving out of either the Gulf Of Mexico or Sargasso Sea, possibly affecting the Old South, Appalachia and/or the Eastern Seaboard are still on the table, since we have met the seven organized storms criteria before the average season peak of September 9.

Nothing typical about this prediction.... " Larry Cosgrove

[nutleyblizzard]

  Just figure I'd get everyone in the mood. Happy Labor Day everyone!

[Quietace]

                                                                       Just figure I'd get everyone in the mood. Happy Labor Day everyone!

This may also help

[nutleyblizzard]

Latest ENSO readings are in:

Region 1@2: 2.2 (up .02 from last week)

Region 3: 2.4 (up .01 from last week)

Region 3.4: 2.1 (down .01 from last week)

Region 4: 1.0 (down .01 from last week)

[skinsfan1177]

[quote="nutleyblizzard"]Latest ENSO readings are in:                                                                                                    Region 1@2: 2.2 (up .02 from last week)                                                                                   Region 3:      2.4 (up .01 from last week)                                                                                      Region 3.4:   2.1 (down .01 from last week)                                                                             Region 4:      1.0 (down .01 from last week)[/quot

What does this all mean

[rb924119]

Thanks, Sroc! To be honest, I cannot make any strict gaurantees about when I can get it up here, but I certainly do not mind and will absolutely try to put something together to try and demonstrate the concept.

[Frank_Wx]

The ENSO and PDO regions continue to warm. It's impressive how much above normal those waters off the US and South American coasts are. Exactly which ENSO region the warmth concentrates could have big impacts on how our patterns sets up for winter. For that matter, we have watch closely how the month of September and first couple of weeks of October shape up.



What is interesting - though not surprising - is to see the waters in the northern Pac. begin to cool a bit. I am not sure if this will continue, but Iv'e been looking at analogs and it's very difficult to find one where we had a strong El Nino and a negative EPO.

[Frank_Wx]

Also noteworthy from the SST anomaly map above...the extremely warm ocean waters of the Atlantic. If this lasts into the winter we could be stuck between the western and Atlantic ridges. The concentration of the coldest temp anomalies would be in the Midwest.

[Frank_Wx]

I mean...this is a pretty strong El Nino event. Currently running stronger than 97-98, but the question is, did this one already peak?

[Dunnzoo]

Am I mistaken or did I read somewhere that due to all the tropical activity in the Pacific, colder water will be pulled to the surface and moderate the ssts.... not sure if I'm remembering right or not or if that is even a thing! Lol

[amugs]

Am I mistaken or did I read somewhere that due to all the tropical activity in the Pacific, colder water will be pulled to the surface and moderate the ssts.... not sure if I'm remembering right or not or if that is even a thing! Lol


Janet, beat me to it major upwelling from the major typhoons and activity there this past month from what I read as well. only time will tell.

Arctic Sea Ice - just interesting to note at this time - not much stock since it is far out and we have only one indicy reporting at this time.

[amugs]

Closest match right now is 2009

[Frank_Wx]

Am I mistaken or did I read somewhere that due to all the tropical activity in the Pacific, colder water will be pulled to the surface and moderate the ssts.... not sure if I'm remembering right or not or if that is even a thing! Lol

Makes perfect sense. What's key will be to see if the Pac rebounds.

[amugs]

Euro seasonal comes out tomorrow and jamstec comes out later this week, interesting to see if they stay the course going forward.

57-58, 2009-10 two analogs I have read and see on the charts so far. Hoping we can get 2002-03 in there as well.
Ciao for now

[nutleyblizzard]

Euro seasonal is out and it looks great. 500mb map has a classic setup according to American wx website.

[Guest]

September 8th. High of 93 degrees and humid. My pool still open and I'm sitting here reading and hoping about the potential for a snowy winter. Am I nuts.........or are you people even more nuts for doing the research????

[Frank_Wx]

For those who were concerned the strong El Nino will last the entire winter, perhaps this will ease your mind a bit. Region 3.4 forecasted to tank. A moderate El Nino with the Pacific SST's the way they are could actually put us into a 2009-2010 type of pattern. I'm just speculating for now.

[amugs]

For those who were concerned the strong El Nino will last the entire winter, perhaps this will ease your mind a bit. Region 3.4 forecasted to tank. A moderate El Nino with the Pacific SST's the way they are could actually put us into a 2009-2010 type of pattern. I'm just speculating for now.



FN ehh man - that is like the Mona Lisa of Artwork right there franky for our upcoming winter. Now we chant EPO and we are in business! AS I sweat my blls off in school today - this blows big time!

Check this out - giddee up peeps - good incoming weather - for the North Pole and Siberia - HAHAHA!
GFS is consistently showing a cold shot over central Siberia with significant storminess around 9/13-9/16, which should be the first opportunity for meaningful snow cover gains in the Hemisphere.

[amugs]

Euro seasonal is out and it looks great. 500mb map has a classic setup according to American wx website.

Let me see if I can dig one up to draw comparison - may not be till later but this is great news.

[amugs]

JB newest snowfall forecast from WXBell after seeing teh Euro Seasonal

[Guest]

NOW I'M REALLY STARTING TO GET FIRED UP!!!

[nutleyblizzard]

NOW I'M REALLY STARTING TO GET FIRED UP!!!

Today's developments are encouraging but nothing more. Frank has pointed out that the -EPO has weakened some, but I expect it to prevail at some capacity this winter. The AO/NAO will be a wildcard, however it would really help us out if it ends up negative especially if the EPO doesn't work out. Having a strong Nino just adds to the chaos. I'm willing to wait for the November updates before I toot my horns. I've been following weather for almost 40 years now and been burned too many times before. As of now I'm cautiously optimistic.

[skinsfan1177]

I really hope we can get blocking this time it's been absent the past few years.

[Quietace]

The ENSO and PDO regions continue to warm. It's impressive how much above normal those waters off the US and South American coasts are. Exactly which ENSO region the warmth concentrates could have big impacts on how our patterns sets up for winter. For that matter, we have watch closely how the month of September and first couple of weeks of October shape up.



What is interesting - though not surprising - is to see the waters in the northern Pac. begin to cool a bit. I am not sure if this will continue, but Iv'e been looking at analogs and it's very difficult to find one where we had a strong El Nino and a negative EPO.

Also with early season systems, warm SST right offshore will have a effect with Surface Temps as always.
But these are rather impressive, and with the warmer pattern lasting into September, the SST along the coast will take time to cool.
Another note is that any coastal low that decides to form this fall will have a abundance of energy to work with...

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