Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

[jmanley32]

So from what I am seeing here we could be looking at a slow start but a possible blockbuster winter come JFM? Is there still a storm signal for the end of OCtober? Seems that tropical system disappeared. Models been all over the place in the LR, as to be expected. Goliath, yes that has roidzilla (dare I say frankzilla, hopeful lol) attached to it for me already lol, but so silly to name winter storms. One of my concerns is the fact that Juno did such a flip last year that if we had another projection even right up to the event it will not be taken seriously, that could really mess things up IF its not taken seriously.

[jimv45]

Been hearing that this winter looks promising for non snow lovers why is everyone so excited about this winter that these so called experts say otherwise? But I trust this site so hope is there.

[skinsfan1177]

Been hearing that this winter looks promising for non snow lovers why is everyone so excited about this winter that these so called experts say otherwise?  But I trust this site so hope is there.

Honestly jimv I have heard both sides so at this point who knows actually I hear more of a positive for snow lovers. And from what the guys and gals on here are saying things are trending in the right direction for the snow lovers. But I remain optimistic it's still early

[jimv45]

Yea Skins lets hope trend is out friend.

[NjWeatherGuy]

I feel like the ones we always expect to be cold and snowy bust unfortunately, wasnt last year somewhat of a surprise? Remember its an El Nino which can go two ways, if it stays very strong it could be a 1997 redux which was crummy snow wise, however it is forecast to weaken, if it goes out of strong territory it could resemble 2009-2010 which was a good snowy pattern.

[sroc4]

I feel like the ones we always expect to be cold and snowy bust unfortunately, wasnt last year somewhat of a surprise? Remember its an El Nino which can go two ways, if it stays very strong it could be a 1997 redux which was crummy snow wise, however it is forecast to weaken, if it goes out of strong territory it could resemble 2009-2010 which was a good snowy pattern.

Last year was a surprise to some, but not to many.  I was surprised by just how much above normal snowfall fell for my area, but in no way was I surprised by the above normal snow and the cold temps.  This time of year I think the danger in overanalyzing the daily or even weekly details of the major drivers that set us up for Jan, Feb, and March is that you begin to miss the big picture.  The major drivers, ENSO, +PDO, AO for example, IMHO are setting us up again for above normal snowfall.  Will it actually happen?  Ill tell you in May.  There are still wild cards etc but only time will iron out some of the details.  But just like last winter I get this feeling that I am going to need to constantly be pulling people back off the ledge.  Just because the 10-14day forecast is showing a ridge in the east and a trough in the west people are starting to panic.  Im not saying you Tom, but people in general on multiple sites.  We all should take a little break in the daily forecasting of the Jan-March time frame and let a month or so go by, then digest the information as a whole.  

I had a feeling that the cooler than normal temps that we are going to see this weekend was going to be more transient.  IMO this is because of climatology meaning the time of year.  There still is not a huge snow pack up in Canada, so this time of year when a deep trough tries to dig into the east the cold air can and does modify(relatively speaking) the further south in Lat it gets.  This modification does not give it a lot of "staying power".  If this same pattern shows up in Dec and Jan there will be a much higher tendency for the colder air to eventually lock in for late Jan Feb and March similar to last year. I know there is more to it than that, but I hope you all get my idea.    

Look at this:  Last nights Euro ensemble mean at 500mb for the 10 day(Oct24th) and the 15day(Oct29th).  Both look like they have a warm ridge centered over the east coast with a trough in the west.  Not good for cold lovers.  Lets see what 500mb looks like in 5 days, 10days, and 15days from now.  
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Just going to throw this out there too. Those lower heights(blue colors) you see on the 10day down near the Bahamas may be the EPS hinting at some tropical funny business 10-14days from now.

[Frank_Wx]

Just thought I'd post this here for those interested:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Byod2Sk27yNYclZMUmQ5dmtIUXc/view?usp=sharing

This is not my work, but that of Joe Bastardi who works for WeatherBell. It's short, sweet, and adds even more hope for this upcoming season. I personally hold the UKMET as one of my favorite models, but am unfamiliar with its longer range prediction performance. That said, whispers from a guy that I work with were along the lines of that it's usually pretty decent. Again, I can't say one way or the other. Interesting none the less....

As long as region 3.4 is the warmest of the other ENSO regions, I feel we'll be fair game to have a decent winter. Like Joe B said, this will ensure the axis of the ridge is further west which better angles the trough / STJ over the east. Right now, the eastern regions continue being warmer but there's a trend that I am seeing and liking.

Been hearing that this winter looks promising for non snow lovers why is everyone so excited about this winter that these so called experts say otherwise?  But I trust this site so hope is there.

It's hard to say, Jim. There is still a lot of information we need to uncover first before proclaiming a good or bad winter is upon us. Still too early. Once my winter forecast comes out I hope I'll have solid information by then.

I feel like the ones we always expect to be cold and snowy bust unfortunately, wasnt last year somewhat of a surprise? Remember its an El Nino which can go two ways, if it stays very strong it could be a 1997 redux which was crummy snow wise, however it is forecast to weaken, if it goes out of strong territory it could resemble 2009-2010 which was a good snowy pattern.

Exactly. El Nino could really benefit us or just be a disaster. This season is going to be tough to predict.

[Frank_Wx]

I feel like the ones we always expect to be cold and snowy bust unfortunately, wasnt last year somewhat of a surprise? Remember its an El Nino which can go two ways, if it stays very strong it could be a 1997 redux which was crummy snow wise, however it is forecast to weaken, if it goes out of strong territory it could resemble 2009-2010 which was a good snowy pattern.

Last year was a surprise to some, but not to many.  I was surprised by just how much above normal snowfall fell for my area, but in no way was I surprised by the above normal snow and the cold temps.  This time of year I think the danger in overanalyzing the daily or even weekly details of the major drivers that set us up for Jan, Feb, and March is that you begin to miss the big picture.  The major drivers, ENSO, +PDO, AO for example, IMHO are setting us up again for above normal snowfall.  Will it actually happen?  Ill tell you in May.  There are still wild cards etc but only time will iron out some of the details.  But just like last winter I get this feeling that I am going to need to constantly be pulling people back off the ledge.  Just because the 10-14day forecast is showing a ridge in the east and a trough in the west people are starting to panic.  Im not saying you Tom, but people in general on multiple sites.  We all should take a little break in the daily forecasting of the Jan-March time frame and let a month or so go by, then digest the information as a whole.  

I had a feeling that the cooler than normal temps that we are going to see this weekend was going to be more transient.  IMO this is because of climatology meaning the time of year.  There still is not a huge snow pack up in Canada, so this time of year when a deep trough tries to dig into the east the cold air can and does modify(relatively speaking) the further south in Lat it gets.  This modification does not give it a lot of "staying power".  If this same pattern shows up in Dec and Jan there will be a much higher tendency for the colder air to eventually lock in for late Jan Feb and March similar to last year.  I know there is more to it than that, but I hope you all get my idea.     

Look at this:  Last nights Euro ensemble mean at 500mb for the 10 day(Oct24th) and the 15day(Oct29th).  Both look like they have a warm ridge centered over the east coast with a trough in the west.  Not good for cold lovers.  Lets see what 500mb looks like in 5 days, 10days, and 15days from now.  
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Just going to throw this out there too.  Those lower heights(blue colors) you see on the 10day down near the Bahamas may be the EPS hinting at some tropical funny business 10-14days from now.      

Yea, it's pretty clear the cold spell this week and weekend is transient. Normal to above normal weather will return next week.



The Aleutian trough has retrograded back into Asia and the NAO is positive. This allows the SE Ridge to flex its muscles.

[sroc4]

I feel like the ones we always expect to be cold and snowy bust unfortunately, wasnt last year somewhat of a surprise? Remember its an El Nino which can go two ways, if it stays very strong it could be a 1997 redux which was crummy snow wise, however it is forecast to weaken, if it goes out of strong territory it could resemble 2009-2010 which was a good snowy pattern.

Last year was a surprise to some, but not to many.  I was surprised by just how much above normal snowfall fell for my area, but in no way was I surprised by the above normal snow and the cold temps.  This time of year I think the danger in overanalyzing the daily or even weekly details of the major drivers that set us up for Jan, Feb, and March is that you begin to miss the big picture.  The major drivers, ENSO, +PDO, AO for example, IMHO are setting us up again for above normal snowfall.  Will it actually happen?  Ill tell you in May.  There are still wild cards etc but only time will iron out some of the details.  But just like last winter I get this feeling that I am going to need to constantly be pulling people back off the ledge.  Just because the 10-14day forecast is showing a ridge in the east and a trough in the west people are starting to panic.  Im not saying you Tom, but people in general on multiple sites.  We all should take a little break in the daily forecasting of the Jan-March time frame and let a month or so go by, then digest the information as a whole.  

I had a feeling that the cooler than normal temps that we are going to see this weekend was going to be more transient.  IMO this is because of climatology meaning the time of year.  There still is not a huge snow pack up in Canada, so this time of year when a deep trough tries to dig into the east the cold air can and does modify(relatively speaking) the further south in Lat it gets.  This modification does not give it a lot of "staying power".  If this same pattern shows up in Dec and Jan there will be a much higher tendency for the colder air to eventually lock in for late Jan Feb and March similar to last year.  I know there is more to it than that, but I hope you all get my idea.     

Look at this:  Last nights Euro ensemble mean at 500mb for the 10 day(Oct24th) and the 15day(Oct29th).  Both look like they have a warm ridge centered over the east coast with a trough in the west.  Not good for cold lovers.  Lets see what 500mb looks like in 5 days, 10days, and 15days from now.  
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Just going to throw this out there too.  Those lower heights(blue colors) you see on the 10day down near the Bahamas may be the EPS hinting at some tropical funny business 10-14days from now.      

Yea, it's pretty clear the cold spell this week and weekend is transient. Normal to above normal weather will return next week.



The Aleutian trough has retrograded back into Asia and the NAO is positive. This allows the SE Ridge to flex its muscles.

Hey Frank to expand on this a little, warmth into the east in the 10-14day shouldn't come as any surprise given the time of year and some of the players on the field.  Frank I know you know this but for others it has been said many times this year and certainly in past years that some of the same drivers in Sept October November will lead to entirely different outcomes in say Dec, Jan, Feb .  For example:

Here is the MJO forecast for the next 2 weeks for both the GFS and the Euro.  Both have a strong pulse out into Phase 1 of the MJO over the next 10-14days.  (For a review on what the MJO is click here: https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t511-what-is-the-mjo-really)

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Now you may have heard in the past that phase 1 of the MJO typically leads to cold and increased stormy chances in the east right?  Well lets look at the climatology...aka the time of year.  

The next image is how the temperature anomalies look across the country in Dec, Jan, and Feb(DJF) depending on what phase the MJO is in.  Blue colors indicate colder than normal, and oranges indicate warmer than normal.  BTW just because the MJO is in a particular phase it doesn't absolutely have to behave like these next maps indicate.  The stronger the pulse, aka the further away from the center (AKA Circle Of Death COD) the more likely it will become a stronger player in driving the overall pattern, but recall the pattern as a whole is always the sum of all parts (phases of the MJO, ENSO, AO, PNA, EPO, PDO, NAO, etc. you get the point).  

So again here is what the temperature anomalies typically look like when the MJO enters any given phase for DJF.  Take particular notice to Phase 1 which we are about to go into top left.  Cold right?? So what gives?


Now look at how the different MJO phases behaves during Sept, Oct, Nov(SON) again paying particular attention to phase 1 in the top left corner.  Completely opposite of what DJF looks like.  



Now look at the EPS 850mb temperature anomalies in the long range.  Looks a lot like the map above for phase 1, warm anomalies in the east; cooler in the west.
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This is all due to climatology or the time of year.  Remember the deeper into the season we get the greater the differences in temperatures we get between the northern latitudes, and southern latitudes.  This temp gradient drives the strength of the various jet streams; therefore, the same pulse of convection in the phase 1 region in different times of year leads to different outcomes down stream because other atmospheric influences are different.

Now one last thought is that all of the above is also 10-14days out so trending in different directions is still likely, but you can see how the EPS at he moment has some sound backing in the drivers leading to warm temp anomalies in the east towards the end of the month.  But the way I see it we are right on schedule for the winter thus far.  

You can see below that the Jan, Feb, March(JFM) MJO temp anomalies are similar to DJF  

[amugs]

As per the discussion on El Nino:
One man's view

97-98 redux is not going to happen IMHO due to the data that is out - a basin wide event not just an EPAC event for one and a HUGE reason at this. The other aspects that I feel are uncharted waters (no pun intended) is the large warm body of water off the California coast and Baja region as well as the region just  south of the Aleutian Islands. The Cali waters I feel with help pump the STJ and the Aleutian Low will help set up the pattern fro our cross polar flow. I have looked for and so have many others analogs for such as described above and none can be found. WE have never had such a set up in pacific before that we are seeing. Each Nino event is unlike the last granted but the basin wide "Modaki" event is within realm at this point. The waters of the coast of SA are cooling even though they are still warm but the waters in regions 3, 3.4 and 4 are warmer anomalous wise. Region 4 is of the charts for a nino event. Also, the depth of the warm waters in regions 3.4 and 4 are deep which would leave one to believe that this body would take some time to cool rather than 1.2 which is a shallower depth just by plain physics and we will see it cool and faster than 3.4 and 4 in the coming weeks.

BASIN WIDE EVENT as per this chart:(posted above as well)



Here is 1997:



Here is ours presently


Do you see what I am talking about with the red and brown waters.

More info to show Frank point above about the cooling and liking trend:
DATE 1.2 3 3.4 4
20MAY2015 26.6 2.6 28.2 1.2 28.9 1.1 29.8 1.1
27MAY2015 26.3 2.6 28.2 1.4 29.0 1.3 29.9 1.1
03JUN2015 25.3 1.9 28.1 1.4 29.0 1.2 30.0 1.2
10JUN2015 25.7 2.6 28.1 1.5 29.0 1.3 29.9 1.1
17JUN2015 25.4 2.7 28.2 1.8 29.0 1.4 29.9 1.1
24JUN2015 25.1 2.6 28.1 1.9 28.9 1.4 29.9 1.1
01JUL2015 24.9 2.7 28.0 2.0 28.9 1.4 29.8 1.0
08JUL2015 25.2 3.3 27.9 2.1 28.8 1.5 29.9 1.1
15JUL2015 24.6 2.9 27.9 2.3 28.9 1.7 29.8 1.0
22JUL2015 23.7 2.3 27.6 2.1 28.8 1.6 29.8 1.0
29JUL2015 23.9 2.7 27.4 2.1 28.8 1.7 29.7 1.0
05AUG2015 23.6 2.6 27.6 2.3 28.9 1.9 29.6 0.9
12AUG2015 22.8 2.0 27.3 2.2 28.9 2.0 29.6 0.9
19AUG2015 22.4 1.7 27.2 2.2 28.9 2.1 29.7 1.1
26AUG2015 22.6 2.0 27.3 2.3 29.0 2.2 29.7 1.1
02SEP2015 22.7 2.2 27.3 2.4 28.9 2.1 29.7 1.0
09SEP2015 22.5 2.0 27.4 2.6 29.0 2.3 29.7 1.0
16SEP2015 23.0 2.6 27.6 2.7 29.0 2.3 29.8 1.1
23SEP2015 23.2 2.7 27.5 2.6 29.0 2.3 29.8 1.1
30SEP2015 23.4 2.8 27.6 2.8 29.1 2.4 29.7 1.1
07OCT2015 23.4 2.7 27.7 2.8 29.1 2.4 29.7 1.0

region 1.2 cooling, 3.4 and 4 holding ground temps wise - data says trop forcing out by dateline.


Can El Nino override things and make this wet and moderate winter, yes but if it was east based concentrated in just region 1.2 and 3 as in 1997 certainly but this is becoming and is a basin wide nino with the forcing from this setting up more  west than east region 3, 3.4 and 4.

Hey, two things are going to happen - one we have a good to great winter (DJFM I am not punting December just yet still have time to go before this happens), two I am totally wrong and I get my but chewed out by many snow weenies - board, friends, families.    

[skinsfan1177]

Not sure if anyone has looked at models this afternoon Gfs showing blocking again where Euro says no. Can anyone elaborate on this.

[sroc4]

Haven't had a chance to look myself. For me looking at the ensembles would prob give a better clue for something like that. We will have to look for consistency regardless if which Model(s) to believe.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Thats what I was saying, currently stronger than 09-10 but below 97 where it trends in coming months is important, some show steady, slight increase, and some slight to moderate decrease to near '09-'10 so the phase stregnth of the nino during the important time of winter will be a major factor imo, preferably to weaken for a snowy pattern.

[Frank_Wx]

Not sure if anyone has looked at models this afternoon Gfs showing blocking again where Euro says no. Can anyone elaborate on this.

The GEFS don't indicate there will be blocking in the long range.

[Snow88]

GFS is still showing a crazy storm in the long range thanks to the blocking.

[amugs]

Look at the snow growth - like I said last week that it is prime time  baby!

[amugs]

Isotherm again on the winter pattern:
JAMSTEC is also out today w/ essentially the same look as its previous run. Near normal temperatures running along the Mason-Dixon line with cool to the south and warm to the north. What's interesting to me is the cool anomalies are fairly far north in the Plains, suggesting that it's more than STJ induced cold. It's difficult to determine w/o H5, but the implication seems to be for a west based -NAO and -EPO/+PNA based upon temperatures. The UK is cold which would imply a -NAO forecasted

[amugs]

Now for the MJO: It looks to be in Phases 1 and 2 for Oct and Nov - from analogs this i more like 2002 and 2010



2009


2002


Where does one sign for such???
This is due (I am taking an eggumacated guess here as the bros in Pa-terson would say!) due the forcing being out at the Dateline - very good news IMHO.

[amugs]

JAMSTEC maybe to warm on those maps ?? Look at the predictions for the last two winters and you tell me:

2014-15


2013-14

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So we kind of take it with a grain of salt but look at the pattern set up which looks good overall.

[amugs]

From the Washington Gang - Judah Cohen speaks about winter:

[Guest]

Just heard on WCBS 880 a.m. at 3:00 p.m. that this winter will be much milder and wetter for the tri-state area with way less snow than last year. It was one of their headline stories at 3.

[Dunnzoo]

Just heard on WCBS 880 a.m. at 3:00 p.m. that this winter will be much milder and wetter for the tri-state area with way less snow than last year.  It was one of their headline stories at 3.

Looks like they are taking NOAA's forecast

[NjWeatherGuy]

JAMSTEC maybe to warm on those maps ?? Look at the predictions for the last two winters and you tell me:

2014-15


2013-14

\


So we kind of take it with a grain of salt but  look at the pattern set up  which looks good overall.

Going by those maps predicted looks very similar to last year 2014-2015

[Frank_Wx]

I don't want to give anything away from my winter outlook, but I will say this will be one of those seasons when all it will take is 1 collasal Snowstorm to achieve our seasonal snowfall.

[jmanley32]

I don't want to give anything away from my winter outlook, but I will say this will be one of those seasons when all it will take is 1 collasal Snowstorm to achieve our seasonal snowfall.

Ohhh sneaky tidbits, man if its one of those years where its boring until boom one day and thats it that one day will be gr8 but man waiting for when that happens will be tough. If we used the totals from last year in one storm that would be a frankroidzillajmanazoola. LOL

[jmanley32]

I don't want to give anything away from my winter outlook, but I will say this will be one of those seasons when all it will take is 1 collasal Snowstorm to achieve our seasonal snowfall.

Ohhh sneaky tidbits, man if its one of those years where its boring until boom one day and thats it that one day will be gr8 but man waiting for when that happens will be tough.  If we used the totals from last year in one storm that would be a frankroidzillajmanazoola. LOL

Give me 4 feet plus of snow and 75mph winds and i'll be one drooling camper. lol

[jmanley32]

Just heard on WCBS 880 a.m. at 3:00 p.m. that this winter will be much milder and wetter for the tri-state area with way less snow than last year.  It was one of their headline stories at 3.

Looks like they are taking NOAA's forecast

Is there a dislike button?

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