Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

[sroc4]

Doc, we will all be monitoring the ridge and the El Nino position ... because ... as I paraphrase Mugs... we are snow weenies!  As for the cigars, it is on the deck for me and a heater out there keeps me alive until early Dec.  Then I do the shed (man cave).  However, even my wife has tried chick sticks...she is just not into them.  Coming back to El Nino, may I ask if Joe Bastardi is still saying the cold winter trend is likely in 2015-2016?

JB is def still on the cold train.  He has pointed out that the JMA (his favorite LR model), the Euro and the UKMET are all showing support.  The CFS cont to be the outlier, but he is not worried at this time.  Again still alot to monitor and alot can change.  This is a quote from Tomas Downs, a Met on the Weatherbell team that collaborates along with JB and a couple others to produce the winter forecast.  This is what Mugs has been touting.  

"For the winter forecast, the most important thing may be how the Nino1+2 region responds. If it continues to lag the Nino3.4 anomaly, a pattern like 1997-98 would be unlikely. This is the scenario that WeatherBell has anticipated for quite some time now.
There still is a chance for the Nino1+2 region to warm significantly. For that to happen there would have to be a decrease in the strength of the trade winds across the far eastern Pacific. This would shut down upwelling off the coast and the SSTs can respond very quickly (a matter of one or two weeks). To have long-lasting implications for the winter, however, those weak trade winds would have to remain for weeks on end, as any strengthening of the trades would promote rapid cooling.
So to put it bluntly, while Nino1+2 has the chance to overtake Nino3.4 as the warmest region, the odds are currently against it."

[nutleyblizzard]

Latest weekly ENSO readings shows that area 1.2 has warmed up since last week. Not a good thing if you want cold and snow. However models show that cooling will take place in the coming weeks so this should be only a temporary spike.

[amugs]

Latest weekly ENSO readings shows that area 1.2 has warmed up since last week. Not a good thing if you want cold and snow. However models show that cooling will take place in the coming weeks so this should be only a temporary spike.

Yes they did and I concur with this statement. We should see a cooling in the next few weeks and region 3.4 and 4 is warming - so the warm el nino bathtub or hot tub is basin wide at this stage. WXbell boys are expecting this to occur as well. If a month from now we are seeing 1.2 still warm at this stage then we start to head to the SA coast and put our underwater turbines in the PAc and turn them on full blast towards the Indian OCEAN!!

[amugs]

KEEP GROWING MY CHIA PET!!

[Frank_Wx]

I wish there were a cigar club where all professional meteorologists could go and hang out and be professionals and not "wait and see" folks.  TV weather has always reminded me, at least for the last 20 years, of the Harlem Globetrotters.  You know they have super skills, you know they can play, but their primary purpose is to entertain. Everyone keeps it five-minute format and "weather" suffers.  This is what drove me here to this board (plus the very funny posts and very nice people with good listening skills, good conflict mgt skills, and superior social skills).  Is it going to rain? Is it going to snow?  What is the temp today? <--are all good questions but why and how are the things I want to know and I get them here.  Good visuals, good synthesis of facts to put complex ideas and topics within reach of readers, citations, and good banter=a fun place with good info. Thanks everyone for making the board what it is.

Thanks for this post! So many people do a great job of giving their input here. Lots of expertise analysis.

Latest weekly ENSO readings shows that area 1.2 has warmed up since last week. Not a good thing if you want cold and snow. However models show that cooling will take place in the coming weeks so this should be only a temporary spike.

That actually is a little disheartening to hear. Some models are showing the greatest forcing taking place over the central ENSO regions so maybe we'll see a reverse next week.

[Frank_Wx]

You can tell we've entered the fall season when H5 maps start looking like this. It looks like the pattern has no idea what it wants to do. That's basically going to be the case through October. What's key for winter is how other variables come together (ENSO, Stratosphere, Snow Cover, etc..)

[amugs]

Interesting article but by a Jersey Shore paper.

http://patch.com/new-jersey/longbranch/strong-noreasters-expected-hit-new-jersey-fall-winter-arrive

[Dunnzoo]

Interesting article but by a Jersey Shore paper.


http://patch.com/new-jersey/longbranch/strong-noreasters-expected-hit-new-jersey-fall-winter-arrive

I saw that earlier, can't believe they are making predictions this early.....

[docstox12]

Not even taking any of this seriously until Frank works up his winter forecast in 5 or 6 weeks.

[jmanley32]

Interesting article but by a Jersey Shore paper.

http://patch.com/new-jersey/longbranch/strong-noreasters-expected-hit-new-jersey-fall-winter-arrive

Whoever wrote this is r******d with grammer (and I am pretty sure Mt. Holly didnt say “It is indicating the chance of higher than normal temperatures and wetter than normal temperatures,” said Mitchell Gaines, an NWS meteorologist in Mount Holly. “We are going to have a strong El Nino which does indicate a stronger storm track.” Ummmmm.....wetter than normal temperatures and a stronger storm track, lol is all I can say to that!? And many of the things in it worded do not make sense at all.  Is this a satire site because its written so poorly anyone who takes it seriously should be committed lol jk mugs.

[Frank_Wx]

That article was not very good. I couldn't even take it seriously.

[Frank_Wx]

By the end of this month into early October, you'll notice below normal heights begin to encompass much of central and northern Canada. This includes Alaska into the Arctic Circle...a true indicator colder weather is on the way. Most importantly, the aforementioned areas should be building up a nice snow pack in this time. We'll revisit the Snow Cover maps in the 2nd week of October and see how they look.

[algae888]

This from steve d this morning about the nao and atlantic sst.
"While Ida is no threat to any land mass, Ida does have the potential to help to drive the NAO into a deep negative phase for the first 15 days of October before rebounding towards neutral once again.  This is one of the few tropical systems in the Atlantic able to transport latent heat energy into the Polar regions of the Atlantic and may be one of the last as well.  This is an important observation going forward.

The fact is that this Hurricane Season has be all but dead for the coastal waters of the East coast, which IS a good thing.  However, while we dodge storms from tropical and extratropical nature now, I do not think we get away with this for long.

The SSTA in the Atlantic point to a perfect support for a sustained negative NAO pattern, especially a west based negative NAO in the winter months.  Why?  Because of the thermal gradient developing at the low levels of the atmosphere to the mid levels of the atmosphere.  Basically, if you wanted to create an environment at the lower levels for constant low pressure system development, well you have a perfect environment for that in the western Atlantic."

 

[algae888]

If the long range GFS is correct 10+ days out we should see a significant cool down with the 540 line making it into our area and much of New England getting below freezing at night.

[jmanley32]

This from steve d this morning about the nao and atlantic sst.
"While Ida is no threat to any land mass, Ida does have the potential to help to drive the NAO into a deep negative phase for the first 15 days of October before rebounding towards neutral once again.  This is one of the few tropical systems in the Atlantic able to transport latent heat energy into the Polar regions of the Atlantic and may be one of the last as well.  This is an important observation going forward.

The fact is that this Hurricane Season has be all but dead for the coastal waters of the East coast, which IS a good thing.  However, while we dodge storms from tropical and extratropical nature now, I do not think we get away with this for long.

The SSTA in the Atlantic point to a perfect support for a sustained negative NAO pattern, especially a west based negative NAO in the winter months.  Why?  Because of the thermal gradient developing at the low levels of the atmosphere to the mid levels of the atmosphere.  Basically, if you wanted to create an environment at the lower levels for constant low pressure system development, well you have a perfect environment for that in the western Atlantic."

 

So basically no hurricanes but big chances of big noreasters giggity!

[jmanley32]

If the long range GFS is correct 10+ days out we should see a significant cool down with the 540 line making it into our area and much of New England getting below freezing at night.

Yeah saw that brrrr, is it a good thing through to have cold too early? I remember our first big storm threat last year was right after Halloween, wonder how long it will be before we see our first bomb on the LR models.

[algae888]

If the long range GFS is correct 10+ days out we should see a significant cool down with the 540 line making it into our area and much of New England getting below freezing at night.

Yeah saw that brrrr, is it a good thing through to have cold too early?  I remember our first big storm threat last year was right after Halloween, wonder how long it will be before we see our first bomb on the LR models.

jman not a bomb but snow in southern Canada on the lr gfs... love to see the blue on the models.

[rb924119]

Just a question, BUT DID ANYBODY SEE THE 12z EURO OP FOR DAY 10???!!! Makes me all warm and fuzzy inside just thinking about it

Btw, Sroc, I didn't forget about your request, I actually just got my desktop set up on my desk that was delivered yesterday haha It shall be followed up with in the upcoming days. I HATE working on a laptop lol

[sroc4]

Just a question, BUT DID ANYBODY SEE THE 12z EURO OP FOR DAY 10???!!! Makes me all warm and fuzzy inside just thinking about it

Btw, Sroc, I didn't forget about your request, I actually just got my desktop set up on my desk that was delivered yesterday haha It shall be followed up with in the upcoming days. I HATE working on a laptop lol

Thanks Bud. I appreciate it!

[skinsfan1177]

Just a question, BUT DID ANYBODY SEE THE 12z EURO OP FOR DAY 10???!!! Makes me all warm and fuzzy inside just thinking about it

Btw, Sroc, I didn't forget about your request, I actually just got my desktop set up on my desk that was delivered yesterday haha It shall be followed up with in the upcoming days. I HATE working on a laptop lol

What did it show

[jmanley32]

Skins not sure what this is but its a insane amount of precip! It comes in from the west and looks like a insanely intense frontal LP, but it kinda rotates, rb can you explain what this excited you? Imagine if it was winter omg. Would the future frames develop a coastal off of this?

[jmanley32]

[jmanley32]

[jmanley32]

VT would be inundated verbatim, this all in about 24 hrs yikes! Also carrying some pretty strong winds with it verbatim gusts 40kts in the area, but yes I have learned winds rarely happen the way they are shown on runs let alone 10 days out.

[rb924119]

Crazy -EPO, AO that is headed from near neutral back into negative territory, negative to neutral NAO and a nice PNA ridge. It may be early in the season, but that is a pretty nice look at H5 in my opinion. The top of the PNA ridge is folding over, which is why the upper-level low over the Northeast gets closed off/cut off, but those are details that I couldn't care less about at this point. The overall pattern looks really, really promising, though, especially if we can keep it into Winter. So far, it looks to me like the PV is already having a tendency to be split favorably for us, as it is continuing to be advertised that it will drift southward near/over Hudson Bay in the medium and long ranges. As an aside, I'm REALLY liking the fact that we are getting all of these coastals to develop so early in the season. I'm a very firm believer in that wherever the storm track is during the Autumn that is where it will likely be for much of the upcoming Winter season. Again, just my own opinion.

[rb924119]

A second comment about the map I just posted: Take note of the trailing negative height anomalies that extend back through Texas. That's indicative of trailing energy that is rounding the ridge and still entering the base of the trough. In a "normal" year, that's nice to see.....in an El Nino year, that's REALLY NICE to see, especially if this was DJF.

[algae888]

I know its in fantasy land but look at the storm track. that would be rain with temps in the 40's for early October. surface fits 500mb setup that rb posted above on euro...

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