Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

[Frank_Wx]

It's looking pretty dry movies forward. Maybe some rain early next week but we will see below normal precip heading into August.

[WOLVES1]

I am hoping this is doesn't not come to fruition cause if it does then winter maybe is jeopardy. Unless we get help from the Atlantic we may have issues this winter. a LOT OF TIME TO GO.! Water seems to be warming rapidly in region 3.4 and may reach 2.0 when the July numbers roll in. We do not cool fast enough by this chart but could have a back ended winter.

What should the ideal number be come winter or by what month to help with a good winter for us?

Wolves we would like it below 2 but 1.5 range + or - a few tenths would be great 1.3-1.7 range with of course with some good -AO levels and a neutral to negative -NAO of course would be a good thing as well. If we go above 2 then we run the chance of of the STJ over powering the pattern with warm moist air from the SW/PAC and even gulf region. A lot of time and a lot can change, heck we we were suppose to have  strong Nino by fall of 2014 and we were neutral to +.3 to .4 by the time winter rolled in. Some are thinking (Isotherm for  one) that the indicators are leaning towards a 1957=58 winter which featured above average snowfall for NYC and a March blizzard. Most of the snow that winter came from mid to late Jan to mid March somewhat of a back end winter as I have been saying. We shall see and I hope this answers your question.

Mugs

PS - we have to see what the PDO level is at hopefully positive, the QBO level hopefully neutral at least to double digit positive and a 2 standard deviation plus negative EPO which has driven the last two winters (EPO) that is.

Do you have a good website to track the QBO?

[algae888]

there is some good news on the ongoing el-nino which has slowed according to the latest data. we are currently in a moderate el-nino which was forecast by some models to head to a super el-nino which would have been bad for our up coming winter. from what I have read it appears the sub sea surface temps are cooler than 1997/98 (that year had a very strong el-nino and horrible winter for us) which cause surface temps to slow or even fall. here is latest ssta for each region...

[algae888]

here is steve d take on it...
"The latest models for ENSO does have this El Nino peaking in the late Fall, around October or November before a slow and steady decline. I think this will happen a bit faster but don’t look for a crash. In fact I would not be surprised if NINO 3.4 jumps into the 2.0 range between now and October before really declining but this will come with a shift from an east based alignment to a central or even west based alignment heading into the Fall.
My point this morning is for you to take note that I don’t see any support for this El Nino to become a Super El Nino in any data. There is no support in the pressure data via the SOI nor is there support in the evolution of sub surface temperature anomalies or potential Kelvin waves. Just isn’t, no matter how many times you make published reports about it. Even the the CPC models are slowly backing away from the idea and CFSv2 model is now locked in as a moderate El Nino by Fall for Nino3.4 at around 2C above normal before steadily weakening after the OND tri-monthly average. I show note that from OND period to DJF period, the average falls a full one 1C, which is rather significant in terms of averages. That would suggest a pretty stead decline in the El Nino back towards weak at least in 3.4 region.
So again, what does this all tell us? Well, we know the Sub Tropical jet stream is going to be active. No doubt about that. However, I am not convinced that this El Nino will be the dominant driver or at least not the only feature trying to grab the steering wheel of our Fall and Winter patterns. This winter looks to be far more complicated than a simple ENSO forecast and then drop the mic and walk out. No, no, no. This winter forecast is going to have a bunch of facts from our still strong positive PDO feature to factors with the stratosphere. Oh, and lets not forget how the Atlantic’s switch to a negative AMO will likely have some influence."

[nutleyblizzard]

The key to this winter season as far as snow chances are not necessarily the strength of the EL Nino, but if it becomes a more westward or basin wide event which algae clearly points out. Regions 1 and 2 have to be monitored, for if they come in warmer than currently modeled would put our winter season in peril. Best case scenario would be a moderate strength western event, along with a -EPO.

[Frank_Wx]

there is some good news on the ongoing el-nino which has slowed according  to the latest data. we are currently in a moderate el-nino which was forecast by some models to head to a super el-nino which would have been bad for our up coming winter. from what I have read it appears the sub sea surface temps are cooler than 1997/98 (that year had a very strong el-nino and horrible winter for us) which cause surface temps to slow or even fall. here is latest ssta for each region...

Good post. The SST's at the surface of the ENSO region are warm but it's a shallow layer. Depth wise, they're not as warm as the year you mentioned. This should help in slowing down the rate of the El Nino, but does not mean it will not continue to strengthen. The next couple of months will be critical.

[algae888]

The next 7 days look to be rather warm with temperatures in the upper 80s and mid nineties however sometime during the middle of next week a significant cool down will take place. temperatures look to be in the upper 70's to low 80s. We're almost through the worst part of the Heat pretty soon those polar Fronts will dive down with nice refreshing air.

[Frank_Wx]

The latest CFS long range SST anomalies shows the Pacific cooling down and Atlantic warming up by April 2016. Not to be taken seriously yet, but that could mean our tropical season next summer could come back to life.

[amugs]

For the weekend from wpc
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1438629526

[algae888]

this chart and disco taken from steve d...

it is the CFSv2 outlook on el nino. black line is the mean. blue lines are the newest model runs and red the oldest. we can clearly see the blue lines below the mean (black line). so maybe el-nino will not be as strong as forecast.

[Frank_Wx]

this chart and disco taken from steve d...

it is the CFSv2 outlook on el nino. black line is the mean. blue lines are the newest model runs and red the oldest. we can clearly see the blue lines below the mean (black line). so maybe el-nino will not be as strong as forecast.

Analogs paint a much colder / snowier picture for moderate to strong El Nino's. If El Nino reaches "super" territory (+2.0*C or higher) the sub-tropical jet stream overwhelms the pattern and floods our region with tropical air. Basically a snow-less winter. It is VERY important to see how this ENSO event progresses over the next 3 months. I can not stress that enough.

[skinsfan1177]

Does anyone have info on this upcoming weekend weather I'm hearing rain then maybe not so much

[Dunnzoo]

Rain has been trending south recently, starting Friday and maybe carrying into Saturday am. Should be a decent weekend from central Jersey north.

[amugs]

El Nino Weather tool

MEI Value

Apr/May: 1.567
May/Jun: 2.06
Jun/Jul: 1.972

What is MEI?
MEI is determined as the first principal component of six different parameters: sea level pressure, zonal and meridional components of the surface wind, sea surface temperature, surface air temperature and cloudiness using data from the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS ). It is the most comprehensive technological tool for measuring La Nina's and El Nino's.

MEI is calculated twelve times per year for each “sliding bi-monthly season”, characterized as January–February, February–March, March–April, and so on.

It is (MEI data) saying that we are in a moderate El Nino state. This would be a few tenths of a degree warmer than what Al posted on the CFSv2 chart if you look closely. Only time will tell but I am pulling for the JAMSTEC and CFSv2. We shall see.....

[jmanley32]

I hope all this stuff is not going to transpire a snowless winter will have me in a seriously bad mood, it better not be bone chilling cold if it doesn't snow. Anyways not sure if this goes here but looks like a fairly significant chance of a big rain storm coming next week, but the one for this weekend trended south so that may do the same.

[dkodgis]

Has anyone seen this site: http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/uswinter-2015-2016-prediction/

where the young man predicts a very cold and very high snowfall total for the NE. He talks about the lack of solar activity, etc. and makes it sound like we are all going to get spanked this winter. Thoughts?

[Dunnzoo]

Too early, this was done a few weeks ago and he's also basing it on a super el nino, which everyone is backing off of already. So many variables still to take into account that won't be known for a little while yet...

[Snow88]

Henry M lol

"It's becoming more clear to me that the rules for the typical El Nino winter need to be thrown out this year. One must look at the PDO and El Nino as one. Gut tells me not as cold but a lot of wild storms on both coasts!"

[docstox12]

Too early, this was done a few weeks ago and he's also basing it on a super el nino, which everyone is backing off of already. So many variables still to take into account that won't be known for a little while yet...

Agreed, Dunz, it's fun to talk about this but solid evidence for the winter to come is months away.

I thought super ElNinos were warm and snowless around here yet this guy is calling for major cold and snow here.Isn't a moderate to weak El Nino better for us?

[docstox12]

Henry M lol

"It's becoming more clear to me that the rules for the typical El Nino winter need to be thrown out this year. One must look at the PDO and El Nino as one. Gut tells me not as cold but a lot of wild storms on both coasts!"

Henry is a hoot but I prefer temps around 30 for snowstorms so we don't get extremely cold air forcing the storms away from us.

[nutleyblizzard]

Too early, this was done a few weeks ago and he's also basing it on a super el nino, which everyone is backing off of already. So many variables still to take into account that won't be known for a little while yet...

Agreed, Dunz, it's fun to talk about this but solid evidence for the winter to come is months away.

I thought super ElNinos were warm and snowless around here yet this guy is calling for major cold and snow here.Isn't a moderate to weak El Nino better for us?

Normally moderate or weak El Nino's are better for our area. There are some models showing us to have a -EPO this winter in spite of a strong El Nino. That would keep the cold air in place for us. Also, the Atlantic signals will be a big key to our success or failure. We won't know our fate for a few more months. Stay tuned.

[Frank_Wx]

Latest Jamstec for winter from Snow88

[nutleyblizzard]

Latest Jamstec for winter from Snow88

Taken verbatim, that type of setup would lead to record setting snowfalls. When you have a strong to super nino coupled with a -EPO/-AO, it would result in frequent miller A occurrences. That being said it is still too early to speculate on what is going to happen this winter, although some mets on American are saying that there are no analogs with this potential setup.

[dkodgis]

http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/13/weather/el-nino-2015/index.html

[weatherwatchermom]

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/noaa-warning-that-godzilla-el-nino-could-hit-u-s/

[Frank_Wx]

http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/13/weather/el-nino-2015/index.html

I am not a believer it gets as strong as 1997-1998 yet

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/noaa-warning-that-godzilla-el-nino-could-hit-u-s/

How dare they steal my term. I should sue them for using Godzilla in their title.

[Frank_Wx]

Accuweather preliminary winter outlook

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