01/22/16-01/23/16 Update #1 - Historic Storm Possible

RB and NJ!!! That was one of the best explanations of the amounts being so different I've ever read. Clear and well done.

Thank you RB

Weather underground on twc right now, doing a great job of explaining the setup for the storm if anyone is interested.

I'm about to start crying. Twc says for me Saturday rain and snow less then one inch!! Are u freikin kidding me???? Anyone here can explain that

devsman wrote:Weather underground on twc right now, doing a great job of explaining the setup for the storm if anyone is interested.

i love the segment, watching it right now and every night lol

JAKE where do you live

I'm in ocean county nj

Jake that is what I saw before and got yelled at this is an impressive storm but will not be for ocean county a couple of inches if we are lucky

That is a pissoff

this wreaks of total whiff....feels a lot like last year's hysterics.....if its raining in Ocean county (jake732) that means its mainly a mixing event in Monmouth county, snow but more mixing in Middlesex....etc.....Id like to think we have all been around the block enough times by now....but unless we are day out....im not a believer.....my instincts say we miss this whole thing

track17 wrote:Jake that is what I saw before and got yelled at this is an impressive storm but will not be for ocean county a couple of inches if we are lucky

Ocean county still has a solid chance at over a foot. The snow maps do not account for many variables and this system is dynamic. It is still several days away and anyone's location in this forum can still jackpot.i would say anyone north of ACY has a solid possibility of six plus inches.

The fact that many are worried about P-type and snowfall this early is ridiculous and hysterical. It is too early in forecast progression to worry about boundary layer issues

I dont think anybody is making calls or forecasts yet or jumping on fully because we all know what has happened the past few years with various storms. Nobody wants to jump the gun and JB not saying a word is strange and maybe good luck. But the TV mets never learn... Its just too early to lock in amounts, qpf or ptype. Pretty much all we know is theres a storm, but if the outlier ensemble members are correct, it could still miss completely, which is why im not fully engorged yet because the CMC and GFS ensemble means are a little concerningly SE clustered of the OP run. Most members running SE of the OP run...

Biggin23 wrote:

track17 wrote:Jake that is what I saw before and got yelled at this is an impressive storm but will not be for ocean county a couple of inches if we are lucky

Ocean county still has a solid chance at over a foot. The snow maps do not account for many variables and this system is dynamic. It is still several days away and anyone's location in this forum can still jackpot.i would say anyone north of ACY has a solid possibility of six plus inches.

You could get 20"+ or 0", thats the spread right now.... Too early for this.

track17 wrote:Jake that is what I saw before and got yelled at this is an impressive storm but will not be for ocean county a couple of inches if we are lucky

Not sure anyone got yelled at...lol. I think the point was that the storm is in the northern pacific right now. Worrying about a rain/snow line at this point is crazy when you think of how amazing a storm this could be regardless of the rain snow line. And i'm on the south shore of LI so rain/snow lines have been a nightmare for me too. Let's wait til thursday before we worry about the temps.

Quietace wrote:The fact that many are worried about P-type and snowfall this early is ridiculous and hysterical. It is too early in forecast progression to worry about boundary layer issues

Agreed, everyone is anxious/excited/scared....lol. All and all it looks great and we have a beast to track!!

When does the EURO Para come out?

syosnow94 wrote:Got ya frank. But the heavier precipitation extends due west up to my latitude and even due ne at my latitude. Just confusing

See my post from this morning..

track17 wrote:Jake that is what I saw before and got yelled at this is an impressive storm but will not be for ocean county a couple of inches if we are lucky

not really yelled at, they like any kind of negativity about models etc in banter to keep clear of the current thread

it's a grief zone

All u guys make me feel much better thank u.

Quietace wrote:The fact that many are worried about P-type and snowfall this early is ridiculous and hysterical. It is too early in forecast progression to worry about boundary layer issues

100% CORRECT - STOP THIS STALK HERE PLEASE

The bufkits remain sick. the WAA precip continues to indicate to me 3-6 inch an hour rates will be possible under the wall of white
additionally, lift is obscene, which indicates to me a ridiculous jet streak over head. The 540 line is nothing in this type of storm due to teh incredible dynamics. still a ways top go but chill. I have gotten shafted in the snow of ne nj a number of times whilst my family members did great so lets just all be thankful and take this possible epic/historical storm in. 24 - 36 hours duration too.

gitty up

This one's for all of you:

track17 wrote:Well in my opinion nothing I see for my area looks impressive at all

Track17

Snowfall amounts? How about trop force/possible Hcane force winds, major coastal flooding with a full moon to boot, 2" plus precip which could be a heavy wet snow with some mixing - that is almost epic imho so if it is snow you are wanting you guys have kicked ass the last few winters and before 2009-10 etc. while we sucked cirrus - momma evens things out. Just pointing things out.

Math23x7 wrote:This one's for all of you:

That's too funny.

Math, I love love love Frankie. I comment on his videos. What an enthusiastic young man!

Good grief.

We have had much in about 5 years and honestly we all know the storm is unimpressive as can be for ocean county without much snow.